Penn. 12th District Special Election Update – Latest Polling Burns Leads Critz 48-47 – only 35% of Dems Excited about the Race - Analysis

Businessman Tim Burns leads Democrat Critz in latest poll - image Tim Burns for Congress

Public Policy Polling released the latest poll on the race to fill the PA 12th Congressional Seat yesterday. The vote will take place on Tuesday, and according to this poll, will come down to the wire. Public Policy Polling is one of the more accurate pollsters, and specifically of more import as the organization is noted to “lean left” (although most likely not as left as say the Daily Kos, or The Boston Globe (see poll released one week before Browns election giving his opponent Coakley a 15 point lead), lending a bit more credence to those polls that are patently biased. The marginals are located here: showing Burns with a 1 point lead over Critz with 6% either refusing to answer or not decided.

Only 35% of the respondents approve of Obama’s job performance (always thrown into polls for good measure), but the kicker: favorables for Burns are at 44% while Critz has a favorable of 39%, additionally, only 29% of respondents approve of the job the Democrats are doing in Congress, statistically equal to the response for the Republican Congressional job performance. The political ideology of the poll: Democrats 55%, Republican’s 30%, Independents 10%, which is roughly in line with the makeup of the district. By party, Burns takes 22% of the Democrat vote, and leads Critz 52 to 31% with Independent voters. Finally, Republicans and Independents lead Democrats in the “excitement factor” of the race, with 52% of Republican’s eager to go to the polls compared to 35% of the Democrats polled.

The margin of error is plus-minus 3.4% with 831 likely voters participating over the weekend (May 15th & May 16th). Public Policy Polling notes that, due to the fact that both Major Political Parties are given low grades by the respondents, and finishes with the fact that neither party would be able to claim a “mandate” should the race finish by 1 point. Although one has to wait until the dust settles, it would appear that Burns overall favorability and the lack of enthusiasm by those Democrats polled, the 9% that are undecided (or flatly refused to answer), are the key to this particular poll – should they break for Burns (given the following factors: Pelosi and the Congress low popularity in the district, the low popularity of the Health Care Program and the lead in excitement among Republican’s and Independents, one can see this swing plus 4 points towards Burns in a heartbeat. It’s the enthusiasm of the Republican and Independent voters who lean Republican and the disaffection of the Democrat voters that will carry Burns to the finish on Tuesday. The real possibility exists that a split in the 3.4% margin of error can be added to Burns 1%, giving him an outright victory of 3 plus points, and as Browns race, (plus 5) was considered a mandate, any win over and above 3 points in a heavily Democrat district is a clear mandate for both Burns and the GOP.