Congressional District Special Election – The Deep Divisions in the Democrat Ranks Will affect races in November. Analysis

The special election to replace Rep. Neal Ambercrombiehas Republican Charles Djou poised for victory in a heavily Democrat District. As Democrats have an historical advantage in Special Elections (some by running as Republicans – see the Pennsylvania 12th and of import, the New York 23rd, where Gillibrand won the seat by marching straight to the right), the Hawaii 1st, which is far from a swing district, being heavily weighted by a Democrat electorate, is unusual as the Republican is outpacing two Democrats vying for the seat. The two Democrats, Ed Case who is characterized as a moderate, and Colleen Hanabusa, who is a pro-union Progressive, have been fighting it out amongst themselves leading some pundits to believe this scenario gave Djou the advantage.

According to the Washington Post, the DSCC suspended advertising earlier in the month, thereby admitting defeat before a single mail-in vote was cast. The last ballots must be mailed and delivered by 6:00 pm Sunday ; half of the ballots mailed out have been returned, and results should be announced Sunday night.

Although recent losses in Senate and Gubernatorial Campaigns in Massachustts (Scott Brown), New Jersey (Chris Christie), Pennsylvania (Specter will not be returning) and Virginia (Bob McDonnell) indicate that, just perhaps, the general public has had, in a word, enough of Democrat Policies. The special elections won by Democrats in the California 10th, the New York 23rd and the most recent in the PA 12th, are more indicative of local politics, and special circumstances that led to the Conservative in the race, being defeated. The 10th District, alone, was rather ho-hum and a straight Democrat victory in a district that was more heavily weighted Democrat than any others. In New York, the Republican was more in line with the Democrat, and the Conservative Party Candidate, lost by a small margin, after the Republican endorsed the Democrat running for the seat. In Pennsylvania, the Democrat, again, ran as a Republican, Crist placed himself as far from Washington as he could – otherwise, the 12th, not the Hawaii 1st would have been the first to go to a Republican.

What appears to be missed by most analysts is the fact that there is a schism in the Democrat Party that is handing the seat to Djou. The differences between what can be characterized as a Moderate Democrat and the Progressive (i.e. socialist) Democrats has become clear in this particular race, and one can be sure, in every congressional race going forward. Moderate Democrats in 2008 were behind the candidacy of Hillary Clinton, those are the blue collar, working class Democrats, who were not buying the “Hope and Change of the Progressive candidate Obama. The SEIU, which has become a driving force within the Progressives, and has a clear socialist, agenda and appears to take its marching orders from Washington and Chicago. As Progressive (or those identifying themselves as such) are a small but vocal minority, the rank and file Democrats (or moderates), will, in certain cases, be battling each other in the primaries leading up to the November election. The problem arises that the public perception ties the two divergent factors of the Democrat Party together – the outcome, moderates are voting Republican or “Tea Party”, joined by a good percentage of those who indicate no party affiliation.

This scenario is crossing lines, where more moderate Republicans in Conservative districts are also in danger of losing seats (Recent upset in Kentucky primary, by way of example). With every special election, the pundits with the DNC and RNC both claim mandates, noting either that the Democrats are safe, and that the Republicans’ will sweep (later more historically probable), however, the bigger story is the schism with the Democrat Party. This will have a direct impact on the Congressional, and Gubernatorial races taking place in November, and as of now, key Democrats are in danger of losing their congressional seats, including Harry Reid, and, yes, Nancy Pelosi.

Those pesky conservative “Tea Party” people (made up of conservative, independents and yes, moderate Democrats) are everywhere and the organization has grown in leaps and bounds within the last few months. They will have an enormous impact on who goes to Washington in November.
As for Hawaii, the “Tea Party” resides in Maui (of all places), As well as Honolulu, Kauai, Kona, Ewa Beach and Wahiaw . Therefore, what is taking place is not a mandate for any party, rather a mandate against the factions within the Democrat Party. Those Tea Party acticits, regardless of party, will support the candidates who are Constitutionalist (Tea Party or no) - one that is most in line with their philosophy – which is most instances, but not all, is the Republican.

With a day left until the results are posted for the Hawaii 1st, one can listen to excuses by the Democrats about an “isolated” incidence of a rift between two candidates, but make no mistake, the implications go far beyond a mandate for the Republicans.