Public Policy Polling Reveals Obama Approval in Mass. at 43%
A poll released yesterday by Public Policy Polling on the U.S. Senate Race in Massachusetts, revealed some interesting statistics on Massachusetts changing views. In reviewing the poll methodology one finds a sample of 744 likely voters using automated phone polling (see Rasmussen using same methodology). The Commonwealth’s voter registration is not in sync with the survey – for example: in indentifying voter affiliation: of those surveyed: 44% of the respondents: Democrat, 17% Republican and 39% independent/other. The makeup of the Bay State, based on the 2008 Election Results by the Massachusetts Secretary of State Democrats show party affiliation as follows: 36.95%, Republicans: 11.62%, Unenrolled (Independent) 50.75% and the balance (Green Party, Libertarian, etc.: .68% (less than 1%). Therefore, the poll by Public Policy was heavily weighted in Coakley’s favor, and in President Obama’s favor, given the same criteria.
The returns from the general election for the Bay State were “typical” Obama received 62% of the popular vote compared to McCain’s 36% Fast forward to the Mass. State Senate Poll: On the question of Approval from Bay State Voters: 44% Approve, 43% disapprove, with 13% “unsure”, on the question of Health Care Reform: 41% approve, 47% oppose, and 12% hold no opinion.
It is the common misconception that Massachusetts is in a virtual bubble when it comes to voting for the Democrat over a Republican or Independent Candidate, however, when one parses the actual electoral makeup one finds a group of voters who have become disenfranchised, increasingly conservative, and the majority reject the current administration and specifically the issue of Health Care Reform.
Yes, in Massachusetts.
Obama’s falling popularity is, in part, reflected in the numbers Brown is receiving, but only in part, as one has to look at Coakley favorabilitys. Also of interest, the DNC is sending former President Bill Clinton to “stump” for Martha Coakley. Clinton will be stopping in Boston to attempt to boost voter enthusiasm for Coakley. Although popular in the Bay State (at one time – no recent data), Clinton has his job cut out for him. The environment is decidedly not in favor of the Party in Power. This is not necessarily about Washington, although it plays a significant roll, it is also about the corruption on Beacon Hill, and a growing unease with the Democrat Party in general. If Obama’s approvals are this dismal in a state that he took by over 30%, what are the odds of Coakley pulling off, what now would be an “upset”?
2 comments:
Saw this morning that one poll has Brown up 1 point.
Will be interesting to see how the media explains this away if Brown wins. They were able to find all kinds of excuses in the NJ governors race and had to fall back on a moderate Dem beating a conservative (who had been in the race for 3 weeks) in a GOP leaning district to salvage anything from the GOP landslide that day.
Mass voters are a highly educated lot but not street smart. They are taken in by the Dems and media spin very easily. However, when the evidence speaks against everything they are being told by the media so clearly, their innate intelligence starts seeing the truth. This may be happening now.....
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