MA Senate Race-Boston Globe Poll – Coakley+ 15 with Poll Marginal’s Showing Sample of Majority Democrats – How Much Trouble is Coakley Really In?

University of New Hampshire Marginals MA Senate Special Election Weighed Heavily Democrat

A Boston Globe Poll released over the weekend, touts a 15 point lead for Democrat Martha Coakley over Republican Scott Brown in the Massachusetts Special Election for U.S. Senate. The poll was released immediately following the release of polls by Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling , both showing the race within a 9 to 1 point margin (Rasmussen: Coakley plus 9 with 4.5 margin of error, Public Policy Polling: Brown plus 1, with a 3.6 margin of error). Both Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling’s marginal’s were close to the actual makeup of the Massachusetts electorate: Democrats 35%, Republicans’ 11% and Unenrolled 50 plus percent.

In viewing the marginal’s used by the University of New Hampshire – Boston Globe Poll, here one finds that the sample of likely voters (see poll photo above), was comprised of: 307 Democrats, 86 Independents (Unenrolled) and 151 Republicans. This in no wise accurately represents the electoral make-up of the state. Therefore, with the fact that the poll grossly over-represents the Democrat party, how much trouble is Coakley really in when a 15 point lead is all they come up with?

Note: In addition, the likelihood of additional polling by reputable national polling companies (see Public Policy Polling), is extremely probable within the next week. Public Policy Polling correctly called the New Jersey and Virginia Gubernatorial Races, yet missed on the New York Special Election. In the case of the later, Public Policy Polling Data was released and completed prior to the Republican dropping out of the race and endorsing the Democrat. The type of poll released by the Boston Globe does two things: gives more incentive to Brown Supporters and sends a message to those who would vote Coakley – leaving the impression that the Globe in taking Brown’s side in this race.