Mass Senate Election Update – Scott Brown has 5 point lead over Coakley – Suffolk University/Boston Globe Poll

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A newly released poll from Suffolk University shows Republican Scott Brown with a 5 point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley. The poll was released on January 14th. The poll marginals available here show some interesting statistics:

90% of those polled are likely to vote in the Special Election

69% of those polled actually know when the election will be held

Poll has 39% democrats, 15% republican and 45% (other), the states actual makeup is 35% Democrat, 12% Republican and 50plus% Unenrolled.

57% have a favorable opinion of Brown, while 49% have a favorable opinion of Coakley

33% believe Massachusetts is heading in the right direction

50% would vote for Brown, 45% for Coakley

The Kennedy endorsement: 20% more likely to vote for Coakley, 27% less likely and 52% don’t care.

41% believe that Brown won the Debates, 25% believe Coakley won, 48% actually watched the debate

8% of respondents came from Suffolk University

What the Suffolk Poll tells us, coming only 5 days before the special election is that a poll, skewed towards Democrats, shows Brown surging. Suggest reading the marginals and questions to get an idea of exactly how the poll was conducted and why it might lean Democrat.

This poll was taken after a barrage of negative ads by Coakley, Coakley leaning PAC’s and the Democrat Senatorial Committee began to run. Public Policy Polling suggested they may take another poll this weekend – watch to see how those stats compare with Suffolk’s. One can hazard to guess that the 5 point lead, may stay the same, or increase, as the weekend is sure to bring the negative advertising that sank Kerry Healy’s campaign. Joe Kennedy, the Libertarian candidate was factored into the last few polls and appears to be coming in at 3% of the vote that may or may not go higher as those independents break for Brown.

The last Republican elected to the Senate in Massachusetts, and also the first African American, elected was Edward Brook. The state of Massachusetts voted twice for Ronald Reagan: the first time against Jimmy Carter in 1980. Although considered a minority party in Commonwealth, the Governor’s office is most often held by a Republican – the last to hold the office was Mitt Romney.