Immediately following the final debate, Coakley made the pivotal mistake of airing the first “attack” ad. The ad which is “breaking news” over at the Globe was timed to precede the debate, in which Coakley took a shot at Brown for “denying women abortion” in a vote he took in the MA Senate. Brown, who voted against a bill that would have forced religious institutions to perform abortions, called Coakley out on her “error”. The ad starts out comparing Brown with George Bush and Dick Cheney, followed by photos of Rush Limbaugh as a “Republican” and follows with the usual, tax cuts for the wealthy, and ends with the false “Brown would deny emergency contraceptive to rape victims”. Finally, the ad solemnly states: “We cannot afford Republicans.” (Full Ad Shown Below)
The Commonwealth has seen a lot of Scott Brown over the past two months, and they’ve gotten to know his record, one which proves he is a moderate, not in lockstep with any political party, including his own. Brown is, as more than one Democrat put it, “an independent kind of guy”.
The last candidate for higher office in the State of Massachusetts, that happened to be a woman, Kerry Healey, ran attack ads that ultimately ran her campaign into the ground. The race was for the Governor’s office. Healey’s ads alienated the independent voters, and played no small part in pushing that vote towards Deval Patrick. They just don’t work and in the case of Martha Coakley, may do even more harm than in Healey’s case.
Martha favorability
In all polls taken (and there has been such as wide spread, with marginals of one poll (the Globe) heavily weighted Democrat to give Martha the 15 point lead), Coakley has some problems in areas of favorability – with Brown besting her, especially with the Unenrolled majority of voters. Add an attack ad to an already beleaguered Coakley, and you double the negatives.
Brown on the other hand raised over $1,000,000 dollars yesterday, the big push over $750,000 came immediately following the C-Span televised final debate. This type of donation comes directly from individuals, not PAC’s or special interest groups. There is no doubt that this race is going to be a tight one and that every vote counts – this spells an end to the era of “entitlement” for the DNC in Massachusetts. Granted, it may be a less than commanding candidate, in Coakley, that is part of the problem, and the addition of misleading statements coming on the heels of a debate where the context of the ad was torn apart before it even aired, will not bode well.
On the other hand, Brown’s ads have been more about substance, who Brown is, and what he believes in – not one word about Coakley. One group, an outside PAC did run a negative Coakley ad, which Brown immediately denounced – that ad is no longer running – He keeps insisting that the race should not be influenced by outside factors, and he is not “beholding” to anyone. This tone is what resonates with voters, specifically independent and moderate Democrats.
There will be additional polls released by the end of the week, at which time one can expect little change in movement, as in any special election it will come down to turnout and which candidate has the most enthusiastic followers. Although Public Policy Polling compared the tone of this race to that of the gubernatorial race in Virginia (where McDonnell bested the Democrat opponent by a stunning 17 points), it is more than like to be closer – at this point, no one has a crystal ball. That said, one can expect the race to be with 2 to 3 points, given Brown’s continually increasing momentum, he would be the favorite. In Massachusetts, where they raise the dead to vote, Coakley is guaranteed at the very least those votes, as well as those diehard progressives – unless she softens her tone, backs away from back away from the now defunct Bush Derangement Syndrome – because that doesn’t fly, even in Massachusetts.
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