Thursday, March 26, 2009

Obama Invests in New York’s 20th Congressional – All Eyes on Upstate New York Republican Stronghold

The Associated Press , in an article today, is reporting that the President has begun fundraising for the Democrat candidate for New York’s 20th District, Scott Murphy. The seat, held until recently by Sen. Hillary Clinton’s Senate replacement, Kristen Gillibrand, will be filled in a special election March 31st. The President publicly endorsed Murphy, and took it a step further by appealing directly to former campaign supporters to pony up for Obama’s choice. The DNC, which recorded low fundraising numbers in February, despite the President’s popularity with the base, needed a little help – therefore, as Head of the Democrat Party, the President contacted the party faithful:

"Sign up and pitch in to elect Scott Murphy to Congress," the president implored in an early morning e-mail to at least 50,000 people in New York's 20th Congressional District. Tying his agenda to the election's outcome, he added that electing Murphy would "make a big impact on my efforts to bring about a lasting economic recovery."

The problem that Murphy faces with the District, is politically mathematical – Gillibrand ran and was elected based upon a strategy of being a gun-toting, fiscally conservative Democrat, with the added benefit of a scandal of sorts attached to the Republican incumbent just prior to the election. However, now, with an open seat in a district where Republicans far outnumber Democrats (should the independents be so inclined as to vote Democrat in this District, the difference would be an approximate 46,000 in favor of the Republican Candidate, Tedisco) it is improbable that Murphy will prevail, despite the support of Obama.

Meanwhile, the Republican candidate, James Tedisco, a popular minority leader of the New York State Assembly , has received endorsements from upstate editorial boards, the Humane Society, prominent upstate Businessman Neil Golub, and former Govern of Arkansas and Presidential Candidate Mike Huckabee. Mike Huckabee will be putting in appearances in Upstate New York and his PAC, HUCKPAC is adding funds to Tedisco’s coffers. In contrast, Murphy has been endorsed by the president and two unions. Just how popular is the President and the Unions in upstate New York? A little history – Gillibrand was the first Democrat to hold that seat in over 30 years, under blue-dog Democrat credentials, with a scandalized Republican incumbent.

What has to happen, in order for Tedisco to lose this race, is to have 47,000 Republican’s in the District vote against their conservative principles for Murphy, or alternately, for 47,000 additional Democrats to materialize and vote for Murphy in this mainly rural district. Therefore, although this is being touted by the national press as a must win for both sides, it is neither a referendum on Obama’s budget (those in Upstate are, primarily, fiscal conservatives who oppose the budget), nor on the ability of Michael Steele’s, RNC Chair, leadership. In reviewing the data from the Secretary of State’s office on voter registration statistics, the local endorsements of Tedisco, and the history of the district – it appears that the Republican’s should handily gain a seat in the Congress on the 31st of March.


Chuck said...

47,000 additional Democrats to materialize and vote for Murphy

Sounds like a job for ACORN

Tina Hemond said...

You know, Chuck, I was thinking the same thing - consider - the population growth would not support a change in voter registration to that degree - one has to expect that there is a lot of out-of-state speculation regarding power-players - Obama for investing in the race and Michael Steele - as GOP Chair - and, in reality - there is usually enough independent voters that may go one way or the other to make a difference - that is just not the case here - so, I would hazard to guess, based on probability and voter patterns over the last 30 years, including the last election - that this seat goes Republican - unless of course, there's a midnight train from Chicago ......

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