Tuesday, March 31, 2009

New York’s 20th –The Numbers Don’t Add Up – So Why the Desperate Obama Murphy Emails?

The much ballyhooed race for an open congressional seat in New York’s 20th district has taken on a tone of near desperation. The President, on Monday, sent an email to his supporters, asking for a vote for Murphy, who, Obama said, would be an ally in Congress Meanwhile, Scott Murphy pulled out all the stops, using G.O.P. personages in a mailer in order to “scare” voters into the: Murphy camp:

"Upstate New York can have a congressman who works for them," the front of the mailer said, with arrows pointing to Limbaugh, Palin and Bush. "Or one who works for you."

Although this may work for those who are so blinded by partisanship they cannot see the forest through the trees, those with any amount of common sense understands the following: George W. Bush is no longer in the White House, and Rush Limbaugh, although a conservative voice, is national radio talk show host, while Palin is busy governing Alaska (and yes, still making news).

One again, the statistics on the 20th Congressional District just don’t add up to a Murphy Win:
From the New York Secretary of State’s Election statistics :
There are (as of the election in 2008), 125,486 Democrats, of which 12,132 are “inactive”, 196,118 Republicans of which, 15,308 are “inactive”, and 24,713 Independents, 9,306 CON, 1,710 WOR, 1,858 Green, 125 LIB, and finally, 2 SWP, or a total up for grabs of 37,714 “other party voters”, who could cast their vote either way (most likely given the make-up for Murphy). For some strange reason, this just does not add up: If one assumes that all Republicans vote (deleting those who are inactive): and all Democrats vote (including those “inactive” (normally deceased or moved), and all other parties cast their vote to Murphy: there would still be a 17,610 deficit for Murphy.

Statistically speaking, it is impossible for Murphy to take that seat, regardless of how popular Obama is in that particular district; it is almost as if the national media is in the process of setting someone up for having been responsible for a “loss”. The Headline from the AFP says it all: New York House Race Tests Obama.” When the dust settles, presumably this evening, should Tedisco prevail (and currently numbers are on his side), tomorrow's headlines will question the Presidents "power", should 20,000 plus votes suddenly materialize in the Republican bastion of the 20th, and Murphy take the seat, it will either signal an erosion of Republican support (not necessarily conservatism), or a massive bus-in-the-vote effort by the opposition.

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