Sunday, December 28, 2008

Harry Reid in the Hot Seat – 2010 Election – Shades of Tom Daschle - Maybe

Harry Reid (D-NV), current Senate Majority Leader, is concerned that the RNC may actually try to dethrone him in 2010. In a recent Las Vegas Review Journal article, Reid noted he is trying to raise a paltry $50,000 by midnight,December 31 – he currently has $2,750,000 in elections funds, most of the money coming from the gaming industry. This amount of cash on hand is a small sum to wage a “war” should the RNC launch a serious attack. Compared to John Kerry (D-MA), who recently won re-election, and is in “safe” state for Democrats - he has a decent $4,260,597 on hand with top donors: University of California, Harvard, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup.

Kerry and Reid are powerful Democrats, however, Kerry enjoys the “myth of Massachusetts”, whereby the RNC believes that the state is a lost cause (without taking into account the 51% of voters who identify themselves as unenrolled.) Although the DNC is singing a similar song in Nevada, (they have a 100,000 voter registration lead), it is still a “swing” state, (as Massachusetts could be if given the right attention).

According to the Nevada Secretary of State’s office : 2008 Nevada Active Voter Registration tables show the Democrats with a total of 537,642 enrolled, versus 435,068 Republican’s enrolled – there are 1,222,249 registered voters, of which, 186,021 are “Non-Partisan” with the balance Green, Independent, Libertarian, Natural Law or “other”. It will be the effective “courting” of those 186,000 non-partisan voters that will make or break Nevada and Harry Reid. (The same way Republican’s manage to get into the Governor’s office in Massachusetts.)

Ried is concerned that he raise these funds, because with the deadline for political contributions closing on Dec. 31st, and the FEC report that follows may be used as a quide by some who would harm Harry - it’s all about appearances. In the Review Journal Reid Stated: "Republicans and the media, both in Washington and Nevada, will use this number to gauge the strength of my campaign,". Reid is fighting back: he has set up a website: Giveem , and according to the Mercury News Reid has started his 2010 campaign by soliciting donations using “I’m the Republican’s number one target”. as an incentive for donors.

The question remains, can Harry Reid, who’s overall popularity in the State of Nevada is at a 51% disapproval rating stave off a possibly active state GOP? Harry Reid's seat, not unlike John Kerry in MA, who had a 56% “replacement rating” according to a Suffolk University Poll, (Add to that: 51% of the state’s electorate unenrolled.) looked as if it were in jeopardy - yet the RNC walked away from Massachusetts. Apparently - this media driven “heavily Democratic state” and John Kerry’s “war chest” weighed in more than possibly picking up a badly needed Senate Seat with the 51% of unenrolled who put Mitt Romney in the Governors’ Mansion (Granted, on his own dime.) The RNC looked the other way and John Kerry’s easily won re-election.

Therefore, Harry Reid should look to Kerry, Massachusetts and the national RNC - if there is a sign that the RNC will put up a fight, of if they field a candidate who has Romney like funds; Harry Reid will be nothing more than a footnote in DNC History.


Chuck said...

This race looks very winable to me. If only the GOP can sgake off their coma and get out there and fight for it. I agree with you on Massachusetts also. The GOP rolls over and plays dead there.

Tina Hemond said...

Hi Chuck, it may be the same for Michigan (except the SOS office does not list voters by party designation on its website - that I could find!) - I belive it is the perception of certain states as being "blue" or "red" when the indepedents are not taken into consideration!

Anonymous said...

On July 4th there will be another Tea Party Rally at the Boston Common (noon to 2pm). This one should be huge! The focus is that we are Americans first, party members second. Mabe this time the media won't ignor us! Please invite your friends and let's represent!

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