2012 Polling Update – Romney Lead increasing – Alfred E. Smith Dinner – Romney and Obama – both entertaining – Romney’s Sense of Humor – Hysterical.

Mitt Romney on the Campaign Trail - the Romney Surge image Washingtontimes

General update on polls and links to polls as they stand as of the morning of October 19, 2012:

Gallup :Romney 52, Obama 45

PennsylvaniaRomney 49, Obama 45(Washington Times)

North Caroline Romney 52, Obama 46(Rasmussen Reports)

Wisconsin Romney 49, Obama 48 (Romney 11 point swing in two weeks), Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

More polls as well as the electoral college map prediction on Real Clear Politics, shows Romney Leading in Electoral college for first time on that site Real Clear Politics – Romney Leads Electoral College

The Alfred E. Smith Dinner was held last night in New York City:

Mitt Romney – Hysterical



Full Video of both Govenor Romney and President Obama at Alfred E. Smith Dinner



Although there are still three weeks before America votes, Mitt Romney appears to have the momentum, as polling is beginning to indicate. If one takes into the account that these polls are weighted towards the 2008 election results, and the oversampling of Democrats as a result of that methodology, then one understands that this race, is indeed, going in Govenor Romney’s Direction.

On polls, this blogger has been wondering why Massachustts is being polled so frequently on the Presidential Race – There have been published PPP polls, but the other polls appeared to be internal – A note, if outside firms are polling Massachustts more than once in generations, then that gives one pause. Moreover, New York is being polled – go figure.

Both New York and Massachusetts are considered “safe Democrat”, as they were in 1980.

On the Alfred E. Smith Dinner – Romney is, indeed relatable, and rather than stiff, a man that can relax and dish out one-liners with the best of them – he was indeed funny. President Obama, as has been noted on this blog in the past, is a fine comedian – and that may be his second calling, but what was of interest, were his closing remarks, conciliatory, and deferring to Governor Romney. One would think, in watching the video (above), that should (and it appears that way) Romney be the next President of these United States, President Obama would like to make some inroads now, and be invited to the “party” of past-presidents on occasion – like Bill Clinton, rather than James Carter, who rarely has appeared with other Presidents (past and present) since 1980.

2012 Update: Mass 6th Hampden District Debate, Lincoln Blackie (I-MA) versus Mike Finn (Incumbent-D) – Blackie Hammers Finn On Record and Issues

Lincoln Blackie – Independent Candidate for MA 6th Hampden District - Image: Lincolnblackie.com

The Massachusetts State House and Senate, is, for the most part, controlled by the Democrat Party with a stunning majority, although the Commonwealth ‘s party affiliation if made up of over 51% unenrolled, or “Independents”, a fact that is often overlooked or downplayed. The two-party system that exists in most states does not give an Independent a great deal of encouragement to run for public office, however, in Massachustts that may not be the case. Lincoln Blackie, , an independent, and first time candidate, is running for the Massachusetts House, 6th District seat, against incumbent, Michael Finn (Mike Finn) a party line Democrat.

The debate, sponsored by the West of The River Chamber of Commerce, was characterized as a bit contentious by the Springfield Republican (MasssLive)which headlined the debate as follows: “State Rep. Michael Finn, challenger Lincoln Blackie trade knocks in 6th Hampden District debate”. The Blackie campaign issued a press release on the candidates’ positions and issues addressed during the debate -issues facing the 6th Hampden District and the Commonwealth as a whole (excerpts follow):

“Blackie pressed Rep. Finn on jobs, taxes, education, local aid and wasteful spending

Blackie supports cutting taxes, reducing regulations and providing incentives to make Massachusetts more attractive and for businesses to grow and create jobs.

Asked about the impact of a gaming casino on area communities, Finn said voted for it because it would create jobs, and referred to various reports on the impact to crime, demands on infrastructure, services and housing.

Blackie who has a degree in public administration and another in regional planning, cited a case study he did at Westfield University stating, “casinos are not a job creator.” Most of the good jobs are a one-time shot and the jobs created are not middle class jobs. The effect of a casino on area small businesses and jobs over time has a negative impact.

Blackie asked Finn about the unemployment rates in West Springfield, Chicopee and Springfield. Mr. Finn said he did not know. Mr. Blackie told the audience the rate for West Side was 7.1 percent, Chicopee 7.8 percent and Springfield was over 11 percent and that the area had lost 3000 jobs in August. Blackie also cited a local businessman who told him he only needed one license twenty years ago when he started his business, but today needs ten licenses and ten licenses for each of his employees, which is a hurdle to hiring people.

Blackie asked Mr. Finn why he had not filed any legislation after voters in the district overwhelmingly voted for a 2010 ballot question supporting lowering the sales tax to 5%.

On the question of education, Blackie who attended West Side public schools says he supports teachers using their judgment and creativity to adjust to their students and not be forced into a box teaching to a test. Blackie asked Finn why he voted to cut education funding by $70 million while in state tuition rose by $400 a year. Finn stated he did not know where those numbers were coming from. Blackie referred to the state budget.

Blackie also questioned Finn on accepting donations from lobbyists. Finn responded by saying you need money to get your message out to voters and dismissing the notion donations from lobbyists and special interests would affect his voting.

Blackie pressed Finn on the issue of real cuts to education, local aid and claiming to balance the budget after taking into account spending money coming from one-time stimulus funds and withdrawing four hundred million dollars from the stabilization fund.

Blackie questioned the focus of legislators in Boston when spending on transportation and economic development tends to be on projects east of Route 495 including a $49 million bailout of the MBTA. Finn said he was against the bailout before he voted for the final package. Blackie criticized the wasteful spending and abuse of the Authority and said every dollar wasted could have gone to real improvements.”

Lincoln Blackie’s question of Mike Finn on the filing of Legislation in support of the referendum to cut the sales tax, that was widely supported in “Taxachusettts”, was of note – The official Massachusetts Legislature Page for Mike Finn depicts a State Legislator who is not quick to sponsor bills, having sponsored (written) two – the two bills, Finn has written as well as those he has supported (co-sponsored) are available here at www.masslegislature.gov.

In addition to Blackie’s questioning of Finn’s knowledge and vote on the FY2013 Budget, (as well as the tendency for State Rep. Finn, to vote the party line – Finn was involved with the budget process throughout, and the roll call (here in PDF) supports Lincoln Blackie’s assertion.

Those who are living in Massachusetts understand the chance is, at times, rare to be able to vote for a non-Democrat, an Independent is more of a rarity, as those Libertarian and Independents tend to run as either Republicans or Democrats in order to take advantage of the party identification. Lincoln Blackie, as an independent, would bring a sense of balance to the Massachusetts State House.

For more information on Lincoln Blackie’s campaign for the Massachusetts Legislature, Hampden 6th District, visit: < a href="http://lincolnblackie.com/">http://lincolnblackie.com

Gallup Polling – Romney 51 – Obama 45 – Likely Voters - MSNBC Post Debate Focus Group – Romney Appears to Have Edge - Analysis

Mitt Romney - Polling and Focus Groups indicate likely win in November -image Flagler.edu

Gallup Polling’s most recent ‘likely voter’ pollhas former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney leading President Obama by a margin of 51 to 45 as of October 16th The polling firm has used a model of likely voters, and includes those undecided voters that “lean” towards one candidate or the other. In reviewing Gallup’s final poll numbers versus the actual election results, (full history here at www.gallup.com), the pollster has been within the margin of error (under 4 points in predicting the winner) in sixteen of the last 19 U.S. Presidential elections.

From this perspective, there are few, if any, undecided voters left at this point, those who are now tuning in, are most likely voting party line and unlikely to be swayed either way. The number one issue remains, across all demographics, the economy and job creation, and it appears that Romney absolutely has the go head in that arena. MSNBC, not considered a right or moderate cable channel, hosted a focus group after the debate this week – the video appears below. The Focus group consisted of undecided voters – most of whom appear to be leaning towards or have decided upon Romney after this second debate, one undecided wanted to look at the final debate before drawing any conclusions. The size of the focus group appeared to be somewhat smaller than the Frank Luntz pollster group. Participants in the Luntz Group trended towards Romney. The fact that focus groups from both the left of media and the right of media appear to be leaning Romney coincides with Gallup’s findings, as well as the findings at the University of Colorado which has predicted Romney will win 330 of the electoral college votes, and now predicts there is a 77% change Romney will also win the popular vote. The analysis, using economic models, has accurately predicted the outcome of each race since the election of 1980.

The final debate on foreign policy will be held on October 22nd and available on all networks, cable and national affiliates, One might anticipate that the nod would go to the President, whose foreign policy has not exactly been stellar, yet, is being promoted as a plus over Governor Romney, due to the virtue of being in the Office. Romney, however, despite the media, has a sound and reasonable take on foreign policy and one would anticipate this area will give Romney the opportunity to at the least, tie the President (as in the second debate) or best him in light of the situation in the Middle East and elsewhere (especially Syria at this point).

With polling indicating a 4 point or better lead in Gallup and including the Colorado Study (among others such as Pew) at this late date, it may be impossible, if not improbable that the President will be able to overcome this deficit.

MSNBC Focus Group

Frank Luntz Focus Group Video Clip – Full Story with videos in two parts at www.realclearpolitics.com