Thursday, October 18, 2012

Gallup Polling – Romney 51 – Obama 45 – Likely Voters - MSNBC Post Debate Focus Group – Romney Appears to Have Edge - Analysis



Mitt Romney - Polling and Focus Groups indicate likely win in November -image Flagler.edu

Gallup Polling’s most recent ‘likely voter’ pollhas former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney leading President Obama by a margin of 51 to 45 as of October 16th The polling firm has used a model of likely voters, and includes those undecided voters that “lean” towards one candidate or the other. In reviewing Gallup’s final poll numbers versus the actual election results, (full history here at www.gallup.com), the pollster has been within the margin of error (under 4 points in predicting the winner) in sixteen of the last 19 U.S. Presidential elections.

From this perspective, there are few, if any, undecided voters left at this point, those who are now tuning in, are most likely voting party line and unlikely to be swayed either way. The number one issue remains, across all demographics, the economy and job creation, and it appears that Romney absolutely has the go head in that arena. MSNBC, not considered a right or moderate cable channel, hosted a focus group after the debate this week – the video appears below. The Focus group consisted of undecided voters – most of whom appear to be leaning towards or have decided upon Romney after this second debate, one undecided wanted to look at the final debate before drawing any conclusions. The size of the focus group appeared to be somewhat smaller than the Frank Luntz pollster group. Participants in the Luntz Group trended towards Romney. The fact that focus groups from both the left of media and the right of media appear to be leaning Romney coincides with Gallup’s findings, as well as the findings at the University of Colorado which has predicted Romney will win 330 of the electoral college votes, and now predicts there is a 77% change Romney will also win the popular vote. The analysis, using economic models, has accurately predicted the outcome of each race since the election of 1980.

The final debate on foreign policy will be held on October 22nd and available on all networks, cable and national affiliates, One might anticipate that the nod would go to the President, whose foreign policy has not exactly been stellar, yet, is being promoted as a plus over Governor Romney, due to the virtue of being in the Office. Romney, however, despite the media, has a sound and reasonable take on foreign policy and one would anticipate this area will give Romney the opportunity to at the least, tie the President (as in the second debate) or best him in light of the situation in the Middle East and elsewhere (especially Syria at this point).

With polling indicating a 4 point or better lead in Gallup and including the Colorado Study (among others such as Pew) at this late date, it may be impossible, if not improbable that the President will be able to overcome this deficit.

MSNBC Focus Group

Frank Luntz Focus Group Video Clip – Full Story with videos in two parts at www.realclearpolitics.com

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