The Illinois state 2010 primaries were held yesterday for several Congressional races, among them the race to fill the seat currently held by Democrat, Roland Burris. Burris was appointed to the seat by former Illinois Govenor, Democrat, Rod Blagojevichto replace Barack Obama, who was elected to the seat in 2004, and used that platform to began a successful bid for the Presidency in 2007.
One would think that the State of Illinois and the electorate would, therefore, trend heavily Democrat in the Primary, however, the results tell a different story. With 99%of the precincts reporting in, a total of out of five Democrat candidates, Barack Obama’s protégé, Alexi Giannoulias, bested his nearest competitor by 5 points, garnering 345,265 votes. The Republican primary, with 6 candidates vying for the slot, gave Mark Kirk, the current U.S. Congressional Represenative from North Chicago’s 10th Congressional District the nod, with a 37 point lead over his competitors. Kirk Received 416,853 votes in this primary. One must understand that more Democrats voted in the primary than Republican’s, overall, however, the margin of victory is telling.
Which may be why David Axelrod , political guru for Massachusetts Govenor Deval Patrick and Barack Obama is concerned about holding onto the seat, according to Politico.com. Axelrod’s concerns stem from the fact that he preferred another candidate to Giannoulis, the current Illinois State Treasurer, who worked with former Govenor Blagojevich, and fears the Republican, Kirk will be “formidable”.
Despite recent Democrat losses in key races in New Jersey, Virginia and Massachusetts, one would think that the seat held by Axelrod’s protégé, would be firmly in the grapes of those Progressive Chicago Democrats. That said, one merely needs to review polls averages at Real Clear Politics in order to get a clear picture of which way the wind is blowing.
As it currently stands: the first poll to pit Giannoulias against Kirk, near the primary gave the Democrat an 8 point lead. The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling, queried 47% Democrat, 31% Republican and 23% Independent. Marignals here. As the State of Illinois publishes voter tally’s, without party designation, it is difficult, at this point, to know if those marginal’s accurately reflect that State's current voter registration. If so, then according to the primary results, Kirk has the definitive advantage.
Showing posts with label Roland Burris. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Roland Burris. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Sunday, March 22, 2009
GOP Threatens Early Rally in the Northeast while Obama’s Strongly Approves Remain Stagnant at 35%
New York’s 20th Congressional District has made quite a few headlines lately - over a special election to replace Kirstin Gillibrand, Clinton’s Senate replacement on March 31. The general consensus is that as the district trended Democrat in the last two elections (2006 & 2008), therefore, a Republican would have difficult time obtaining the seat. Additionally, some media analysts note that pressure is being placed on GOP Chair, Michael Steele to deliver the seat.
Firstly, Kristen Gillibrand obtained the seat by running as a more-than-moderate gun-toting, fiscally conservative Democrat against a Republican, John Sweeney, who battled last minute reports of scandalous domestic violence. Once Ms. Gillibrand ascended to the Senate, however, she changed her stance on gun-control and voted for the unpopular Stimulus package. The choice for the 20th congressional district at that time was either a moderate-Republican leaning Democrat or a scandalized Republican. Secondly, Times have changed, but the 20th voter make-up remains fairly conssitant, as of November 2008 - Republicans maintained over 196,000 registered Republicans to the approximately 125,000 registered 20th congressional Democrats.
The Upstate New York Press sheds some light on this particular race – with the Poughkeepsie Journal endorsing Republican Tedisco and the Daily Oneonta Star defends Tedisco and closes the article by reminding readers that the 20th has sent one Democrat to the House – Gillibrand. Additionally, the AIG bonus fiasco is becoming a factor, with Tedisco calling for the resignation of Treasury Secretary Geithner (Schenectady Daily Gazette) - sure to appeal to fiscal conservatives as well as moderate democrats in the district.
The AIG Scandal is also affecting CT Senator Chris Dodd – The Nutmeg State’s leading paper, The Hartford Courant, lead web story Sunday shouts: ”GOP's Simmons Positions Himself As The Anti-Dodd”. The article praises Simmons, while listing Dodd’s less noteworthy accomplishments: the move of his family to Iowa during his failed run for the Democrat Presidential Primary, ownership in a cottage in Ireland, a questionable refinancing of two of his mortgages, and most recently, his role in the AIG bonus brouhaha. It is a bit early to count Dodd out, according to the Courant, “National Democratic operatives figure there's still mileage left in a strategy that links Simmons to President Bush, an approach that worked for them in 2006.”
The DNC strategy of linking Republican’s (or any candidate for that matter) to President George W. Bush, may not be the best decision, considering the current “highly approve” rating enjoyed by President Barack Obama has sunk to 35% in Rasmussen’s Daily Tracking Poll for Sunday, March 22, 2009 The Wall Street Journal’s recent analysis of Obama’s current poll numbers, indicate that he is less popular than George Bush was given the same period of time in office. Should the trend continue into 2009, any politician affiliated with the sitting President may enjoy a similar experience to those suffered by his/her Republican counterparts in 2006 and 2008.
There are 39 Gubernatorial Races in 2009 and 2010, of those, 11 are held by Democrat Incumbents (states to watch, MA and VA), all House of Representatives seats are up for grabs (expect Barney Frank (D-MA) to face a Challnger), and 36 Senate Seats are in play including Dodd, Reid, Burris, and Feingold, some of whom are considered “safe”. With history generally ruling out, Obama may end up facing two houses similar to Clinton’s – a Senate and House run by Republicans. The Northeast, once gain, may lead by firing the “shot heard round the world”.
Firstly, Kristen Gillibrand obtained the seat by running as a more-than-moderate gun-toting, fiscally conservative Democrat against a Republican, John Sweeney, who battled last minute reports of scandalous domestic violence. Once Ms. Gillibrand ascended to the Senate, however, she changed her stance on gun-control and voted for the unpopular Stimulus package. The choice for the 20th congressional district at that time was either a moderate-Republican leaning Democrat or a scandalized Republican. Secondly, Times have changed, but the 20th voter make-up remains fairly conssitant, as of November 2008 - Republicans maintained over 196,000 registered Republicans to the approximately 125,000 registered 20th congressional Democrats.
The Upstate New York Press sheds some light on this particular race – with the Poughkeepsie Journal endorsing Republican Tedisco and the Daily Oneonta Star defends Tedisco and closes the article by reminding readers that the 20th has sent one Democrat to the House – Gillibrand. Additionally, the AIG bonus fiasco is becoming a factor, with Tedisco calling for the resignation of Treasury Secretary Geithner (Schenectady Daily Gazette) - sure to appeal to fiscal conservatives as well as moderate democrats in the district.
The AIG Scandal is also affecting CT Senator Chris Dodd – The Nutmeg State’s leading paper, The Hartford Courant, lead web story Sunday shouts: ”GOP's Simmons Positions Himself As The Anti-Dodd”. The article praises Simmons, while listing Dodd’s less noteworthy accomplishments: the move of his family to Iowa during his failed run for the Democrat Presidential Primary, ownership in a cottage in Ireland, a questionable refinancing of two of his mortgages, and most recently, his role in the AIG bonus brouhaha. It is a bit early to count Dodd out, according to the Courant, “National Democratic operatives figure there's still mileage left in a strategy that links Simmons to President Bush, an approach that worked for them in 2006.”
The DNC strategy of linking Republican’s (or any candidate for that matter) to President George W. Bush, may not be the best decision, considering the current “highly approve” rating enjoyed by President Barack Obama has sunk to 35% in Rasmussen’s Daily Tracking Poll for Sunday, March 22, 2009 The Wall Street Journal’s recent analysis of Obama’s current poll numbers, indicate that he is less popular than George Bush was given the same period of time in office. Should the trend continue into 2009, any politician affiliated with the sitting President may enjoy a similar experience to those suffered by his/her Republican counterparts in 2006 and 2008.
Map of 2010 Races - Republican Governors Association
There are 39 Gubernatorial Races in 2009 and 2010, of those, 11 are held by Democrat Incumbents (states to watch, MA and VA), all House of Representatives seats are up for grabs (expect Barney Frank (D-MA) to face a Challnger), and 36 Senate Seats are in play including Dodd, Reid, Burris, and Feingold, some of whom are considered “safe”. With history generally ruling out, Obama may end up facing two houses similar to Clinton’s – a Senate and House run by Republicans. The Northeast, once gain, may lead by firing the “shot heard round the world”.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
New Poll Shows Trouble in the Nutmeg State for Chris Dodd - Other 2010 DNC Trouble Spots
A poll conducted by Quinnipiac and Released on March 10 , shows long time Democrat Senator Chris Dodd with his “Fannie” in a sling. In a match up with a virtual unknown Republican congressman, Rob Simmons, Dodd is running 1 point behind. Dodd, who has racked up unfavorable ratings due to problems with mortgage issues, (at least that is what is assumed vis a vis this poll), believes this is a temporary set-back. However, voter registration in Connecticut State resembles that of neighboring Massachusetts, where independent or unaffiliated voters are in the majority.
One has to recall that this is the same state that recently gave the boot to New York Times Endorsed Ned Lamont in favor of Lieberman who is viewed as a centrist. Lieberman, ousted by his own Party, ran as an independent. It was the independent vote, with the help of the minority Republican Party that put Lieberman back in the saddle.
What is most interesting is that, this early in the game, a candidate unknown outside of his own district, will beat an incumbent, regardless of party. Should the RCN kick it up a notch (and there is reason to believe Michael Steele will put a focus on the Northeast), then Chris Dodd and Harry Reid can spend some quality time together in the not too distant future.
Other Democrat Senate Seats in play, but not necessarily of interest at this point due to lack of any data;
Blanche Lincoln, AR, Barbara Boxer, CA, (Logic dictates she should hold that seat as long as Bob Byrd has held his), Michael Bennet CO, Daniel Iouye HI, Roland Burris ILL (this one should be fun), Evan Bayh, IN (see Boxer), Barbara Mikulski, MD (see Burris), Kristen Gillibrand, NY (see Burris), Chuck Schumer, NY (See Boxer), Byron Dorgan, ND, Ron Wyden, OR, Pat Leahy, VT, Patty Murary, WA, and the leftist of the Senate (seriously), Feingold, WI.
In a related article by the LA Times entitled: “GOP sees its 2010 chances improve -- thanks to Obama”, the point: vacancies left by Senators taking Cabinet positions have left an opening for the GOP, and further notes that should the economy not improve, the GOP will be given an added boost.
The economy, although some analysts are hoping for a 2009 rebound (calling a 5% increase in one day of trading a "bear market" may be premature), may not turn around quite as quickly, and burgeoning Federal Programs, bloated budgets and regulation being put into place should push the rate of inflation higher than the current unemployment rate. (A Jimmy Carter scenario). It is, as of this writing, too late for Democrat incumbents to battle history, and the increasingly impatient general public, who demands instant results (rightly or wrongly ), leaving any incumbent now affiliated with Donkey brand in a position where they either play nice with conservatives and vote for fiscal restraint or stand in danger of losing their seat (Again, see Bayh one of three Democrats to oppose the massive pork-ridden Omnibus spending bill.) Either certain Democrats are horrified the concept of tax and spend, or an election is looming. Voting against massive spending at this point, may be too little too late. After all, 2010 races were being planned across the country immediately following the 2008 races (and possibly before), events in 2009 will shape the races in 2010, and should the economy in 2010 improve only slightly, the probability of shift in Washington party power is increased.
One has to recall that this is the same state that recently gave the boot to New York Times Endorsed Ned Lamont in favor of Lieberman who is viewed as a centrist. Lieberman, ousted by his own Party, ran as an independent. It was the independent vote, with the help of the minority Republican Party that put Lieberman back in the saddle.
What is most interesting is that, this early in the game, a candidate unknown outside of his own district, will beat an incumbent, regardless of party. Should the RCN kick it up a notch (and there is reason to believe Michael Steele will put a focus on the Northeast), then Chris Dodd and Harry Reid can spend some quality time together in the not too distant future.
Other Democrat Senate Seats in play, but not necessarily of interest at this point due to lack of any data;
Blanche Lincoln, AR, Barbara Boxer, CA, (Logic dictates she should hold that seat as long as Bob Byrd has held his), Michael Bennet CO, Daniel Iouye HI, Roland Burris ILL (this one should be fun), Evan Bayh, IN (see Boxer), Barbara Mikulski, MD (see Burris), Kristen Gillibrand, NY (see Burris), Chuck Schumer, NY (See Boxer), Byron Dorgan, ND, Ron Wyden, OR, Pat Leahy, VT, Patty Murary, WA, and the leftist of the Senate (seriously), Feingold, WI.
In a related article by the LA Times entitled: “GOP sees its 2010 chances improve -- thanks to Obama”, the point: vacancies left by Senators taking Cabinet positions have left an opening for the GOP, and further notes that should the economy not improve, the GOP will be given an added boost.
The economy, although some analysts are hoping for a 2009 rebound (calling a 5% increase in one day of trading a "bear market" may be premature), may not turn around quite as quickly, and burgeoning Federal Programs, bloated budgets and regulation being put into place should push the rate of inflation higher than the current unemployment rate. (A Jimmy Carter scenario). It is, as of this writing, too late for Democrat incumbents to battle history, and the increasingly impatient general public, who demands instant results (rightly or wrongly ), leaving any incumbent now affiliated with Donkey brand in a position where they either play nice with conservatives and vote for fiscal restraint or stand in danger of losing their seat (Again, see Bayh one of three Democrats to oppose the massive pork-ridden Omnibus spending bill.) Either certain Democrats are horrified the concept of tax and spend, or an election is looming. Voting against massive spending at this point, may be too little too late. After all, 2010 races were being planned across the country immediately following the 2008 races (and possibly before), events in 2009 will shape the races in 2010, and should the economy in 2010 improve only slightly, the probability of shift in Washington party power is increased.
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