Wednesday, March 11, 2009

New Poll Shows Trouble in the Nutmeg State for Chris Dodd - Other 2010 DNC Trouble Spots

A poll conducted by Quinnipiac and Released on March 10 , shows long time Democrat Senator Chris Dodd with his “Fannie” in a sling. In a match up with a virtual unknown Republican congressman, Rob Simmons, Dodd is running 1 point behind. Dodd, who has racked up unfavorable ratings due to problems with mortgage issues, (at least that is what is assumed vis a vis this poll), believes this is a temporary set-back. However, voter registration in Connecticut State resembles that of neighboring Massachusetts, where independent or unaffiliated voters are in the majority.
One has to recall that this is the same state that recently gave the boot to New York Times Endorsed Ned Lamont in favor of Lieberman who is viewed as a centrist. Lieberman, ousted by his own Party, ran as an independent. It was the independent vote, with the help of the minority Republican Party that put Lieberman back in the saddle.

What is most interesting is that, this early in the game, a candidate unknown outside of his own district, will beat an incumbent, regardless of party. Should the RCN kick it up a notch (and there is reason to believe Michael Steele will put a focus on the Northeast), then Chris Dodd and Harry Reid can spend some quality time together in the not too distant future.

Other Democrat Senate Seats in play, but not necessarily of interest at this point due to lack of any data;
Blanche Lincoln, AR, Barbara Boxer, CA, (Logic dictates she should hold that seat as long as Bob Byrd has held his), Michael Bennet CO, Daniel Iouye HI, Roland Burris ILL (this one should be fun), Evan Bayh, IN (see Boxer), Barbara Mikulski, MD (see Burris), Kristen Gillibrand, NY (see Burris), Chuck Schumer, NY (See Boxer), Byron Dorgan, ND, Ron Wyden, OR, Pat Leahy, VT, Patty Murary, WA, and the leftist of the Senate (seriously), Feingold, WI.

In a related article by the LA Times entitled: “GOP sees its 2010 chances improve -- thanks to Obama”, the point: vacancies left by Senators taking Cabinet positions have left an opening for the GOP, and further notes that should the economy not improve, the GOP will be given an added boost.

The economy, although some analysts are hoping for a 2009 rebound (calling a 5% increase in one day of trading a "bear market" may be premature), may not turn around quite as quickly, and burgeoning Federal Programs, bloated budgets and regulation being put into place should push the rate of inflation higher than the current unemployment rate. (A Jimmy Carter scenario). It is, as of this writing, too late for Democrat incumbents to battle history, and the increasingly impatient general public, who demands instant results (rightly or wrongly ), leaving any incumbent now affiliated with Donkey brand in a position where they either play nice with conservatives and vote for fiscal restraint or stand in danger of losing their seat (Again, see Bayh one of three Democrats to oppose the massive pork-ridden Omnibus spending bill.) Either certain Democrats are horrified the concept of tax and spend, or an election is looming. Voting against massive spending at this point, may be too little too late. After all, 2010 races were being planned across the country immediately following the 2008 races (and possibly before), events in 2009 will shape the races in 2010, and should the economy in 2010 improve only slightly, the probability of shift in Washington party power is increased.

1 comment:

Chuck said...

Notice the Dems are racking up scandals too. I think 2010 may be a surprise

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