Rasmussen: Gingrich Tops Field in Latest Poll by 21 Points, Trust in National Security at 36% over Nearest Competitor Mitt Romney - Analysis

The current 2012 field - image pensitoreview.com


Newt Gingrich has taken a significant lead in the lasted Rasmussen poll, topping Mitt Romney by 21 points to lead the field with 38%. The Poll taken on the 30th of November and released December 1st by Rasmussen was based on 1000 likely GOP voters with a margin of error of plus/minus 3. The balance of the candidates polled as follows: Romney 17%, Cain 8%, Paul 8%, and Perry 4%, Santorum 4%, Bachmann 4%, Huntsman 3%, other 3%, and a narrowing field of. Should Herman Cain drop out of the race, the pickup for other candidates appears to favor Gingrich and Romney, with Gingrich at 43% and Romney at 19%. What this implies is that, of those polled, Gingrich and Romney are now considered the two top candidates going into Iowa and New Hampshire in 4 weeks.

Additionally, given the high rating on National Security issues, those polled are most likely closing watching the debates; where one saw Gingrich poll numbers take a turn upward after the National Security Debate held on November 22, and sponsored broadcast on CNN. The poll, which featured 73% Identified Republican and the balance as other, also indicated that Gingrich has the lead among both Republicans and Other Affiliations, as well as across ideological lines, all religious affiliations lines with the exception of “other” which went to Mitt Romney.

How firmly are those polled tied to a particular candidate? 42% are certain of their vote for Gingrich, with 35% on the fence, while Romney has 18% certain and 17% on the fence. The race, therefore, remains somewhat fluid.

More over with the Iowa and New Hampshire caucus /primary on the horizon, there are three debates prior to the caucus and primary in New Hampshire: December 10, 2011, co - sponsored by the Des Moines Register and the Iowa Republican Party and broadcast on ABC News at 9:00 PM eastern, December 15th, on Fox sponsored by the Iowa Republican Party at 9PM eastern and finally December 19th, PBS sponsored by the Des Moines Register, Iowa Public Television, PBS NEWSHOUR, Google and YouTube, at 4 PM EST.
It will be the performance at the debates that will allow for these candidates to make their point, not only to the Republican and likely Republican voters in each state for the respective primacy and caucus, but for all viewers, regardless of political affiliation, who may be seeking an alternative within the Republican Party.

As of this past week, Gallup suggested that from an historical perspective: Obama’s job approval was not encouraging for reelection. The President has an approval rating in this third year that is consistent with that of Jimmy Carter, and historically, if he were to win reelection, it would be an anomaly.

As to Newt Gingrich – now that he is at the top of the field, he has come under “scrutiny” from both his opposition candidates as well as the media (to be expected) – However, there are fewer questions arising regarding Gingrich’s background due to the fact that, of all the candidates, he has been the most “vetted” throughout his public life. Additionally, Gingrich has the ability, from all appearances, to swat away any criticism with ease, and has no compunction about meeting journalist head on in any venue. On the other hand, Romney, as the closest to Gingrich in polling, has had a dismal performance with a Fox News Journalist, Bret Bair. Romney appeared more than a bit uncomfortable taking questions, which could be due to several factors, such as the tight schedule that these candidates keep, causing exhaustion, the end result being a somewhat “testy” candidate. There have been, across the field, good and bad debate performances; however, Gingrich appears to have performed the best, in the majority of debates.

Should polls for Gingrich push him about the 40 percentile going into the early caucus and primary states, and should he take two of three early states (or all three for that matter), then one might see an early front runner as the established candidate for the nomination.

Although detractors in the media and the DNC are touting Gingrich as the one which Obama would prefer as his opposition on the basis of the DNC running ads against Mitt Romney (which are predictably about his change on position over the years on a range of issues, making him akin to John Kerry, (D-MA), the King of the Flip-Flops) - it is somewhat odd that one would consider that a sign that Gingrich is the preferred candidate of Team Obama. It is the silence on Gingrich, which gives pause. Perhaps that is because he has not, in the minds of the Democrat strategists, been in the “front runner” long enough, and alternately, there is little for them to say about Gingrich, that cannot be doubled for either their current or previous office holder. It would appear therefore, that by attacking Romney, they are pushing his “front-runner” status, in hopes that he will be recognized as the perpetual front runner, and that it is Romney who they would prefer to run against Barack Obama.

The aforementioned conclusion based on the fact, that consistently, as poll watchers, analysis and strategist, surely noted Romney holding 20 to 25% over the past 8 years, which, when taken in context, shows a candidate who may be weak in key areas, and unable to garner the support necessary, even within his own party going into a general election. Recent polling appears to be bearing that out, as one front runner after another has emerged.

Obama 2012 PollsLags: Rasmussen Any Republican Bests by 4 Points, Public Policy Polling: Obama Trails 3 GOP Candidates - Huge Loss with Redistricting

Romney and Bachmann currently most likely to best Obama in 2012 - image NY Daily News

As the summer of 2011 hits mid-stride, and only seven months to go before the first primaries are held, President Barack Obama’s polling indicates one-term is more probable as the weeks go by. Rasmussen’s latest poll on the President’s electability against a “generic” Republican candidate now stands at 46% (Any GOP Candidate) to 42% for the President. The survey uses a larger than average sample of 3500, giving a smaller margin of error – plus or minus 2 percent. Considering that Obama bested McCain in 2008 by 7.2% (no incumbent), Bush bested Kerry by 2.46 in 2004 (July of 2003 Bush job approval at 60% (Gallup), with the highest “mandate” given to Nixon garnering 23.15% over McGovern in 1972 (no incumbent), and Reagan besting incumbent Jimmy Carter (job approval 29%), by less than 10 points in 1980, (Source for general election statistics: Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections), notes that those incumbents who are historically below the 50% approval trending incumbents against job approval ratings from the previous July, lost the election with a varied margin, those above the 50% approval were re-elected (again with a varying percentages). Therefore, the likelihood of a recovery for Obama from this point forward is dimming.

With redistricting taking place, and Texas being one of the prize states, Public Policy Polling’s latest on the Lone Star State indicates Obama would lose both the popular and increased Electoral College votes: now rating at 42% approval. GOP candidates that lead Obama are: Mitt Romney, Michelle Bachmann, Tim Pawlenty and Ron Paul (Paul’s home state), he is tied with Herman Cain and leads the non-announced Sarah Palin by 1 point. Given the fact that the pollster trendsDemocrat, and in all press releases accompanying polls makes no secret of the fact they are pulling for Obama, makes these numbers doubly troubling for the President.

In the last Gallup 2010 state by state poll on Obama’s job approval, the President broke 50% in only 10 states, including California, Massachusetts, New York, Illinois and Vermont. should Gallup’s 2011 survey (due most likely 3rd week of July) show no improvement, coupled with the continuing decline against “Generic” GOP candidates nationwide, the election eve map will look eerily familiar to either Nixon’s or Reagan’s, even if he manages to continue to hold onto those 10 states.

One suggestion to anyone who wants a voice in who the next leader of the free world may be (of any political leaning:) start looking at which one of those GOP announced candidates one might prefer over the other as the probability that (as of this survey) Romney or Bachmann (the two leading most state polls in early primary/caucus states), would be the next President. Either one or actually any one of the announced candidates previously mentioned that would have the best chance of winning the GOP nomination – would, based on statistics, go on to best Obama in the general.

Watching the Numbers – Obama - 37% Now Strongly Approve Performance

Rasmussendaily tracking poll showed a slight decrease in President Obama’s scorecard, losing 4 points in a week, down from 41% on March 6. Meanwhile, Congress is enjoying a “resurgence” with 18% strongly approving performance – representing an increase in the past two weeks, where it stood at 12%.

What’s in a poll? One has to question the conventional wisdom of adding “leaner’s” (those who somewhat approve or somewhat disapprove”) into the final poll numbers, as is done in all pollsters analysis. Those that are “sitting on the fence”, should be factored into separate categories; not doing so leaves a false impression that the poll subject is either doing more poorly or much better than reality dictates.

In analysis over the drop in President Obama’s strongly approve numbers, one can point to several factors that are the driving force (including those shifting from somewhat approve to strongly disapprove) behind this startling decline in favor in less than two months of taking office. The economy is a factor, there is no doubt, but it is less the economy than the reaction to the “crisis” that is a problem. The daily insistence that the economy is in dire straits and will be for some time to come, not only affects the average voter, but the forces that drive the markets. Additionally, the lack of transparency, and the continued “business as usual” in regards to pork barrel projects, has the nation up in arms. The Spending Bill, signed into law yesterday, was done so without much ado (and also without great fanfare – see Stem Cell Reversal signing to compare), and contains pork spending that has seen no equal to date. Alternately, news stories abound about the rather opulent lifestyle that is being led in the White House, while most in the nation are being told to “tighten their belts” by the main occupant.

Is it no wonder, therefore, that comparisons are being drawn to former president Jimmy Carter? – It is so not much the similarities, (although some are eerily similar), it is that Carter’s popularity among the voters dropped significantly, due to his left of center approach to governing, and the appearance that certain decisions he made were not all that swift. (For lack of better phraseology). One has to take into consideration that the majority of the country is either moderately conservative or committed conservative, leaving a scant one third that identify themselves as “liberal”. It follows that, a backlash will occur, especially in this age of impatience. Speculation on 2010 elections has begun, and pollsters will be busy - one thing that is constant in government and this Republic – is the perception that the head of a Party is responsible for each party member, and therefore, a party “brand” can become damaged, regardless of an individual Congressional office holders performance. That was true in 2006 and again in 2008, and will, in all likelihood, repeat the performance in 2010.

John Kerry – Kerry In Your Corner Tour – Massachusetts Senate Race.

John Kerry, Junior Senator, Massachusetts (D) is making another rare appearance in Massachusetts to campaign for re-election to the US Senate (Tenure - 24 years). An article in the Boston Herald notes that Kerry will be accompanied by Local Elected Officials while he walks around Lowell’s Canal District - proceeding from there to Lawrence for a stroll through the business district. Earlier this year, Kerry made an appearance in Western Mass., visiting the cities of Northampton and Springfield, again, accompanied by local elected officials. Stopping by a coffee shop and visiting with constituents does not appear to be on the Senator’s agenda. A visit to the Senator’s Campaign Website John Kerry.com also does not list a “Kerry In Your Corner” itinerary giving his constituents a heads-up on where he may be showing up next. His website does include selective video from the Mass. Democrat Convention, where he was assured he would handily walk away with the nomination, thereby freeing up his summer for other pursuits, more national in scope. Things did not work out the way Kerry had planned.

Recently on CBS Face the Nation Kerry, stumping for Barak Oabma, referred to John McCain, the Republican Presidential Nominee, as a Flip Flopper, whose judgment is “Dangerous”. It may appear, to Massachusetts locals that Kerry is more interested in being in the national spotlight than hobnobbing with the locals – he has made 3 appearances in Massachusetts since April related to his campaign. He has made hundreds of national appearances however, in support of Barack Obama. There may be a reason that his visits are brief and that he is surrounded by “Elected Officials” when he does set foot in Massachusetts – an overwhelming majority of Massachusetts Democrats voted for Senator Hillary Clinton in the February primary - not Barack Obama, who Kerry chose to support over the wishes of his constituents. This also may be why Ed O’Reilly, a Gloucester Lawyer, against all odds, received more than the necessary 15% of the votes at the Democrat Convention to become the first Democrat to challenge Kerry since he took office.

Amazingly, Policker MA.com suggests that Kerry has a comfortable Lead against the Republican challenger, Jeff Beatty. This analysis is somewhat questionable. First, Kerry led Beatty by 62 percent in a previous poll, and is now down to 58%, which one would think comfortable for Kerry. However, factor that this poll was taken when Jim Ogonowski was still in the Republican race against Beatty and 44% of the respondents had no opinion (or knowledge of) Jeff Beatty. That is a problem with polling data over a month old being released as “news”. More over, Jim Ogonowski left the race in early June and Jeff Beatty has been crisscrossing the state, building a strong grassroots campaign and getting a good deal of press, especially on the NECN network. He has not yet begun to roll out campaign ads. A Suffolk University poll, differed from the Rasmussen Poll in both length of time to publish the poll and in results. The Suffolk Poll suggested that 51% of the state voters were ready for someone different in that Kerry held seat. Additionally, this poll did not mention names of those who might compete against Kerry for the seat.

Kerry’s visit with Local Elected Officials coupled with dismal polling data, suggests that his tenure as Senator may be over this November. Granted, he does have the money, but, that said, residents of Massachusetts just watched Mitt Romney spend millions in a failed presidential bid against candidates who ran on a shoestring. In some instances, Money can’t buy love nor votes. One must spend time with the “masses” in order to succeed.