ABCNews Poll – Race Remains Tight Between Romney and Obama among Likely, Registered Voters – those removed, Romne has Lead – Reading Between the Lines

Carter and Reagan after October Debate - All Tied in Polls - images newstimes.com

The polls are receiving a good deal of national attention this week, let alone the two men who are the focus of the pollsters. First there is the implications of coercion between the Obama Campaign and Department of Justice against Gallup Polling: See Washington Times Article: “Internal e-mails: Axelrod intimidated Gallup before DOJ lawsuit surfaced against polling company”. Gist: Gallup had an employee who campaigned for President Obama in 08, also was a staffer for the Obama Campaign, who in 2009, suggested that Gallup Polling was overcharging the Federal Government for field sampling. The DOJ sat on this until – Mitt Romney was polling 5 points over the President, Axelrod, the Presidents Mentor, Campaign Manager, White House adviser, etc., got a bit hot under the collar and began to blast the polling agency, Gallup also received an invitation to come to the White House and “explain” it’s methodology. When they did not change their methodology, apparently, the DOJ became very interested in the 2009 charges by the Obama Campaign Staffer and a lawsuit ensued. The Times links to the Daily Caller, who has the emails from Gallup Staffers.

Second, there is the similarity between all pollsters besides Gallup showing a deadlocked national race, with a little movement up or down depending upon the candidate. Both candidates received a nominal “bump” in the polls after each convention, not moving up by any significant margin. Unless one counts Bill Clinton, who was a positive force at the Democrat Convention in Charlotte, and would give a boost to a rock if he were speaking at a quarry. That said, from the right and the left, there are charges that the pollsters are not playing fair – and that is the norm for political pollsters – it’s about who they sample, and with random samples, the game changes in a heartbeat. These same pollsters had Carter and Reagan “too close to call” the eve of the election in 1980, and in 1984, Mondale was leading Reagan at this point in August of 1980, during the deep recline in the U.S. economy Gallup Polling had Reagan and Carter in a tie, (Good News Archives).

One can draw the conclusions that polls can be somewhat mistaken, considering that the methodology does not change, and when one understands that Reagan did not win two elections by swings states or a narrow lead in the electoral college, but by a landslide of popular vote in the majority of states - with both Mondale (1984) and Carter (1980) holding one or a handful of states – all of the polling data to date – makes perfect sense.

In the case of the 1980 election, the economy was in tatters, and it did not improve at all prior to the election. In fact there was a third party independent candidate, John Anderson, who was factored into the polling at an usually higher % than the normal 4 to 6% - yet Reagan won in a landslide. In 1984, one can understand that the economy was rocking, Reagan was extremely popular by that point, and well, Mondale was a weak candidate – yet, polls had Mondale with a lead in August, defying reason and pollster logic.

Therefore, the ups and downs and parsing of polls, especially polls that use smaller samples, have a 50-50 chance of being right – or wrong. There are pollsters that lean right and those that lean left in political ideology – there are pollsters that over sample and there are pollsters that word surveys in order to skew the outcome in one direction or the other. The logic follows that the polls would send a message to both candidate and the public: The race is tight, therefore, get out and vote, and/or donate what you have to your favorite candidate to give them the edge.

There are polls that employ a method that uses responses from registered and unregistered voters, polls that use likely voters only, and polls that use registered and likely voters. In those cases, the title of the poll may indicate a lead or a dead heat, but when one looks at the poll internal marginals, the polls is definitely showing a trend towards one candidate or the other- and that is regardless of whether or not the poll is oversampled! This is especially true of the ABC/Washignton Post Poll which gives President Obama a national convention boost of 50 to 44% over GOP Candidate Mitt Romney, or a win for the President with a 2 percent lead outside the margin of error. However, The Marginal’s (PDF here) are titled Obama Gains a Convention Boost – But Not Among Likely Voters” suggests that when one factors in registered voters who are likely to vote, the race becomes a dead heat. The poll samples: “Thirty-two percent of registered voters in this poll identify themselves as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans and 37 percent as independents “(ABC News).

This follows the 2008 election model. However, a poll conducted by Pew Research in 2010 suggests that the electorate had shifted slightly. , with the Democrats at a 5% advantage, in voter identification (registration): 34% of registered voters identify as Democrats and 29% as Republicans, a plus 2 for the Republicans and a minus 5 for Democrats. Moreover,” non-partisans now stands at 37%, one of the highest levels in the past 20” and those that do: 40% of independents and other non-partisan voters say they lean more to the Republican Party, with 35% leaning Democrat. This model therefore suggests that as of 2010, there would be a tie mathematically with both parties at 69% support including the base and those Independent who lean towards one party or the other. This poll was taken in August, yet, in November, there was a landslide in the U.S. Congress, with an historical Republican gaining the house, and a narrowing of the Democrat Majority in the Senate. To suggest that in 2012 voter samples for the Presidential race would be comparable to 2008 samples rather than 2010 is somewhat disingenuous, and therefore, the polls are skewed from the get-go. Would that automatically give Romney a lead in the polls, obviously no – even using Pew’s model, there was a tie in August of 2010!

Reasonably, the only accurate polls are those that will never be released: the internal campaign polls, which use a huge sample comparatively (especially in national elections), and allow a candidate and their strategists to make decisions as to how to allocate funds, or which states may already be in the “proverbial bag”, therefore, using funds elsewhere where a deficit in internals would indicate the need for more advertising.

Therefore, if a polling trend makes one nervous about their candidate, they can do two things: donate and get out and vote if they hold the belief that their candidate has done/will do a better job in the office. The results will only be known when the dust settles on the morning after the election (or the night of the election, given fast returns and a pattern reminiscent of the 1980 election – which by the way – stunned the press!!).

One can hazard to guess however, if a candidate is pulling ads (not staffers) out of a state, then that state is showing internal polls that suggest the state is “safe”, rather than the “state is lost”. In total, it is not without a bit of satisfaction when one's chosen candidate is given a "lead" in a poll, no matter if that lead is inflated! It is the psychological boost given to the base and/or the leaning independent that all is "well" with their candidate. Conversely, the base and the leaners whose candidate is not in the lead are more motivated (generally) to get out and canvas, donate and support their preferred politician.

This begs the question - are there any accurate polls? Yes and no, it is the pollster who is closest at the time of the elections, uses the most accurate sample of the most current electorate and a large enough sample who will more accurately predict the outcome - unless of course, that pollster is in court.

Rasmussen: Gingrich Tops Field in Latest Poll by 21 Points, Trust in National Security at 36% over Nearest Competitor Mitt Romney - Analysis

The current 2012 field - image pensitoreview.com


Newt Gingrich has taken a significant lead in the lasted Rasmussen poll, topping Mitt Romney by 21 points to lead the field with 38%. The Poll taken on the 30th of November and released December 1st by Rasmussen was based on 1000 likely GOP voters with a margin of error of plus/minus 3. The balance of the candidates polled as follows: Romney 17%, Cain 8%, Paul 8%, and Perry 4%, Santorum 4%, Bachmann 4%, Huntsman 3%, other 3%, and a narrowing field of. Should Herman Cain drop out of the race, the pickup for other candidates appears to favor Gingrich and Romney, with Gingrich at 43% and Romney at 19%. What this implies is that, of those polled, Gingrich and Romney are now considered the two top candidates going into Iowa and New Hampshire in 4 weeks.

Additionally, given the high rating on National Security issues, those polled are most likely closing watching the debates; where one saw Gingrich poll numbers take a turn upward after the National Security Debate held on November 22, and sponsored broadcast on CNN. The poll, which featured 73% Identified Republican and the balance as other, also indicated that Gingrich has the lead among both Republicans and Other Affiliations, as well as across ideological lines, all religious affiliations lines with the exception of “other” which went to Mitt Romney.

How firmly are those polled tied to a particular candidate? 42% are certain of their vote for Gingrich, with 35% on the fence, while Romney has 18% certain and 17% on the fence. The race, therefore, remains somewhat fluid.

More over with the Iowa and New Hampshire caucus /primary on the horizon, there are three debates prior to the caucus and primary in New Hampshire: December 10, 2011, co - sponsored by the Des Moines Register and the Iowa Republican Party and broadcast on ABC News at 9:00 PM eastern, December 15th, on Fox sponsored by the Iowa Republican Party at 9PM eastern and finally December 19th, PBS sponsored by the Des Moines Register, Iowa Public Television, PBS NEWSHOUR, Google and YouTube, at 4 PM EST.
It will be the performance at the debates that will allow for these candidates to make their point, not only to the Republican and likely Republican voters in each state for the respective primacy and caucus, but for all viewers, regardless of political affiliation, who may be seeking an alternative within the Republican Party.

As of this past week, Gallup suggested that from an historical perspective: Obama’s job approval was not encouraging for reelection. The President has an approval rating in this third year that is consistent with that of Jimmy Carter, and historically, if he were to win reelection, it would be an anomaly.

As to Newt Gingrich – now that he is at the top of the field, he has come under “scrutiny” from both his opposition candidates as well as the media (to be expected) – However, there are fewer questions arising regarding Gingrich’s background due to the fact that, of all the candidates, he has been the most “vetted” throughout his public life. Additionally, Gingrich has the ability, from all appearances, to swat away any criticism with ease, and has no compunction about meeting journalist head on in any venue. On the other hand, Romney, as the closest to Gingrich in polling, has had a dismal performance with a Fox News Journalist, Bret Bair. Romney appeared more than a bit uncomfortable taking questions, which could be due to several factors, such as the tight schedule that these candidates keep, causing exhaustion, the end result being a somewhat “testy” candidate. There have been, across the field, good and bad debate performances; however, Gingrich appears to have performed the best, in the majority of debates.

Should polls for Gingrich push him about the 40 percentile going into the early caucus and primary states, and should he take two of three early states (or all three for that matter), then one might see an early front runner as the established candidate for the nomination.

Although detractors in the media and the DNC are touting Gingrich as the one which Obama would prefer as his opposition on the basis of the DNC running ads against Mitt Romney (which are predictably about his change on position over the years on a range of issues, making him akin to John Kerry, (D-MA), the King of the Flip-Flops) - it is somewhat odd that one would consider that a sign that Gingrich is the preferred candidate of Team Obama. It is the silence on Gingrich, which gives pause. Perhaps that is because he has not, in the minds of the Democrat strategists, been in the “front runner” long enough, and alternately, there is little for them to say about Gingrich, that cannot be doubled for either their current or previous office holder. It would appear therefore, that by attacking Romney, they are pushing his “front-runner” status, in hopes that he will be recognized as the perpetual front runner, and that it is Romney who they would prefer to run against Barack Obama.

The aforementioned conclusion based on the fact, that consistently, as poll watchers, analysis and strategist, surely noted Romney holding 20 to 25% over the past 8 years, which, when taken in context, shows a candidate who may be weak in key areas, and unable to garner the support necessary, even within his own party going into a general election. Recent polling appears to be bearing that out, as one front runner after another has emerged.

Suffolk Poll – Romney Leads Republican Pack, Within Margin of Error with Obama – Majority Satisfied with Republican Field

Romney & Palin, most likely front runners 2012, as of May: image New York Daily News

Although the Wall Street Journal bloggedon a recent Suffolk University 2012 Poll, the article suggested that Obama was not beatable if the election were “held today”, and that Mitt Romney benefited the most from Governor Mike Huckabee and businessman Donald Trump’s decisions to forgo the 2012 campaigns.
However, when one reviews the marginal’s here at www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.Suffolk.University.Naitonal.Survey.Marginals.May.17.2011.pdf, a slightly different perspective is gained.

As to the President’s overall chances of reelection: 48% to 43% (8% undecided) believe it’s time for someone new to take the helm. More telling: 63% of respondents intend to vote in the Republican primaries, while only 34% of the respondents were Registered Republicans. In addition the Republican Field is considered by 46 to 40% (14% undecided) to be satisfactory. However, when looking at the candidates included in the field, (even with Trump and Huckabee Removed), most are, to say the least, unexpected to run: The following were included in the questions regarding the GOP Primary (including the percentage of interest and undecided’s): Michele Bachmann, 2%, Herman Cain,2%, Mitch Daniels, 2%, Newt Gingrich, 2%, Rudy Giuliani, 10%, John Huntsman, 0%, Gary Johnson, O%, Sarah Palin 16%, Ron Paul, 4%, Tim Pawlenty 8%, Buddy Roemer, 0%, Mitt Romney 29%, Rick Santorum, 6%, and undecided 20%.

Considering that Michele Bachman, Mitch Daniels, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin, and Rick Santorum have not officially announced, with some candidates unlikely to even enter the race (Giuliani), the poll skews away from Romney using Giuliani as an example by 10%. This is given the fact that both Romney and Giuliani are considered “moderate” by those who are “extremely conservative”. That said, an additional 20% are yet undecided, as the field such as this, with some candidates clearly not viable due to having not indicated even an interest in the race. Therefore, the poll confuses the actual outcome attributed to Romney. In addition in a head to head matchup with the “unbeatable Obama”, Romney fares quite well. On Question 15 (which appears to have been taken prior to the exits of Mr.’s. Trump and Huckabee – only the “GOP Field questions were callbacks according to the pollster’s marginal’s – not the lead questions on the GOP individual candidates and matchups). Obama garners 46% to Romney’s 43%, 1% indicated “other” and 10% were “undecided”. When on views the respondent data: out of 1070 polled, the political affiliation was as follows: 39% Democrat, 34% Republican, 22% Unenrolled or Independent and 5% other. Given that Obama Received 46% with 39% of the Respondents Democrat, the remaining 7% may have been Independent or other, that leaves Romney, with 9% of his support coming from independent or other, or with a slightly better edge with the “independent voter than the President.

Given the fact that both campaigns have yet to pick up any real steam, other than media drumbeat, Romney is, this far out in the game, fairly well positioned for the run at the White House, this is contrary to the WSJ report, which begs the questions: did the author consider reading the marginals? As with any poll, the marginals are more telling that the editorial on the polls release. The data serves to give an overview of the demographic that the pollster employed, and one can determine if it accurately reflects the voting public (in this case, most likely). In addition, one can see where those polled contradict the headlines vis a vis, the Republican Field and general dissatisfaction with the current “crop” of candidates, by merely looking at the marginals.

Therefore, Romney, even with imaginary candidates, polls highest in the field, and against Obama is within the Margin of error on the poll, therefore, it is a statistical tie- and not as headlined, a huge win for the President. Of course, all this before all candidates named (or even some unnamed such as Rick Perry, Governor of Texas who is toying with the idea of running for the GOP nod) have committed or not, before any firm field has been established. Therefore, should Romney continue his current path of high fundraising, keep up his visits to the all important early primary states, he should be well positioned, even with the promise of a “dark horse” candidate, which has yet to emerge. What the fled lost with the decisions of both Huckabee and Trump was an excitement factor that was due mostly to entertainment factor (on Trumps part) and the “celebrity” of both candidates, which clearly gave them a temporary edge. Romney, for his perfect hair, his stiff upper lip, and his penchant for being down the middle, does not sit well with most social conservatives, however, one cannot imagine that even the most stalwart of those right of right, would forgoes the opportunity to remove Obama from office, and vote for Romney even if they disliked the man.

On the Massachusetts versus the U.S Health Care Reform Debate and Romney’s refusal to let go of his legislation and or apologize for conceiving of a plan that was exported nationwide: he’ll more than survive this. One, he did not apologize because the man truly believes he did the right thing for Massachusetts based on the financial aspect and projected costs savings of his model. He stuck to his guns. What he most likely should have done, was bring along his infamous PowerPoint, showing Romney’s version and what became of it once the Massachusetts Democrat controlled legislature got a hold of it, after he left office. One finds two different animal – and one thing that is missing from the conversation: Romney care, as it is now called, actually proved Romney has some compassion mixed with his business sense, something that appeals to those moderate Republicans, moderate Independents and yes, even some moderate Democrats. Other than his perfect hair and the health care issue, there’s little left in Romney’s closet to upset the “conservative base” – Additionally contrary to popular theory, Romney can take the south, and the Midwest and the northeast, with some exceptions: One would expect in a matchup between Romney and the President, that Obama would hold the states of Massachusetts (this is based on data from Obama’s approval being above 50% statewide), Hawaii, California and New York, there were a total of ten states where the President’s approval indicated that he might be re-electable In those states. The rest, falling well below 50% would, in all likelihood go to the Republican nominee. Romney may even pick up states by default, regardless of political ideology. That sums it up as of the latest poll and the way in which, when “pulled apart” one can find a totally different scenario emerge, one that is more likely than “No Republican can Beat Obama” – to which one can say with some authority

“Hog wash!”.

Gallup polling currently shows that Obama has a 3 point advantage (one would say within the margin of error) over any Republican candidate) – the score: Obama 43, unnamed Republican 40 – leaving 17% undecided – or in line with the Suffolk Poll. In addition, Gallup contends there are “no clear front runners”, with Romney and Palin taking the lead out of the following field:
Romney, 20%, Palin, 18%, Gingrich, 11%, Ron Paul, 8%, Michelle Bachman, 5%, Mitch Daniels, 4%, Tim Pawlenty, 4%, Rick Santorum and John Huntsman at 2% respectively, Gary Johnson at 1%, and Herman Cain at 0%. This field is more comprehensive (fewer choices) than the Suffolk poll), however, again, includes candidates that are, for the most part, undeclared as to intent. That includes Sarah Palin, who has yet to enter the fray.

Of interest and back to the Suffolk Poll, given all the aforementioned data, one question stood out like a sore thumb: Question 55 on the Suffolk Marginals asks: Do you think a woman will be elected president in 2012 or 2016? 51% agreed, only 36% said no and 13% were undecided.

Therefore, it is no out of the realm of possibility that a strong, well funded, female candidate could conceivably win the general election, sooner than later. Of the two GOP potential female candidates, Palin and Bachman, Palin is the only candidate that has experience governing, and has a high profile among GOP voters. Michelle Bachman, a congresswoman, has less governing credentials and, although wedded to the Tea Party Movement, more than Palin, is still lacking the litmus governing test. Interestingly, Romney, although polling ahead, and able to beat the President, is followed next in both polls by Palin.

Word of caution, we’ve got a long way to go before November, when, all begins in real earnest ahead of the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary.

Poll data all sources; Gallup Polling and Suffolk University.