Gallup – Obama Approval Slips Amongst Women – What are the Odds? Clinton, Bachmann, Palin. Polling on the Street from Dallas to Miami

Any on of these women is the preference in 2012 among a broad Demographic - non-scientific blogger poll - image political news now


From :CNS News, comes an article regarding the Presidents approval among women, slipping as he round out 2012. The Polling data from Gallup shows that Obama among Women has slipped 4 points since July of this year, to a low of 41%. The old adage, the “buck stops here”, applies, both in terms of the President’s poll numbers and the working women’s pocketbook. As costs rise across the board on food, housing and clothing, one can anticipate that those numbers will decrease, especially with more than one woman in the race for the Presidency. As of this moment, Michelle Bachmann, is the only woman who has formally announced her candidacy - and a recent Quinnipiac poll suggests that, although Rick Perry and Mitt Romney lead the “pack” for the Republican primary vote, both Sarah Palin (unannounced) and Bachmann, come in third and fourth..

However, is it truly a boy’s club situation, when the nomination of the next GOP presidential candidate, along with a possible run by Hillary Clinton against the incumbent, Obama, rests with the nation’s largest “silent majority”?
Palin, has yet to announce her intent, (Washington Post)although the most recognized “candidate” in most polls, she has a ways to go as far as her favorability amongst core Republicans and Republican leaning Independents. According to a Washington Post article today, Palin will be in Iowa and New Hampshire to address Tea Party groups, yet will not formally announce until end of September. (This is plenty of time, al la Ronald Reagan). Although her polling to date, shows her in the field, lagging behind front runners, that may be due to the fact that she has not announced, rather than any other factor.

Rumors of Hillary Clinton getting back into the Presidential political fray and challenging Barack Obama have resurfaced. With Democrats growing increasingly skeptical of Obama’s chances of reelection (fading), looking for the candidate who a)should have won in 2008, and b) would have done a better job with the economy, etc., makes Hilary the obvious choice. So much so that a Facebook Pace of Clinton Supporters has emerged, and they are taking donations - $20.12. The page fan site is currently low at 1400, however, it goes without saying that Clinton remains extremely popular among Democrats, especially women, and has cross-over potential among both Independents, and some Republicans. She has, however, continually denied any ambition to challenge Obama in 2012 – that said, with pressure mounting, and her party and the nation is a shambles, one might have to ask, would she stand on the sidelines?

Is the United States ready for a woman to lead? According to a recent Rasmussen Poll 73% of the participant would see a women elected within the next 10 years: missing from the questions – would one vote for a women in 2012?

As the President’s polling numbers show, across multiple pollsters, that he is most likely unelectable in 2012, the field of potential GOP becomes one for scrutiny across all party lines, as one will most likely be the next President. At the moment, Rick Perry, Governor of Texas leads the field, with Mitt Romney, a close second, and as noted both Bachmann and Palin (unannounced) in the mix. A recent survey (unscientific) on this bloggers part, took place over the past few days, traveling from Massachusetts to Dallas Texas, to Miami and back. In the process, asking preference for 2012 and specifically questions regarding the Governor of Texas while in Dallas, this is the general consensus. A good percentage of the queried in Texas find their current Governor to be a “career politician”, and indicated that their preference would lay elsewhere, although with no clear signal as to which candidate in cases where the respondent was a male.

However, among women, especially Latinos, there was a common theme – it is time for a woman to take the helm. It was not a question of which woman, at this point, and these women queried, focused heavily on the economy, giving poor grades to both Presidents’ Bush and Obama, prior to noting that Bachmann seemed competent, a few who knew of Sarah Palin, would give her the grade, and several hoped for a Clinton return to the ring. The most comprehensive interview given, brought up the fact that women were leading, and moving the economy in the right direction Latin American. The choice was, any women that has governed, would be the preference for this Latina, who spoke of the rising costs of goods, the fact that she and others were working and paying taxes while there was a huge percentage of Americans who did not, and that it was time to give someone else a chance. The idea that giving a chance to a woman was most appealing, and that this individual was expected only to try and fix the problem, was interesting in the pragmatic manner in which this particular respondent viewed the political fortunes of the current and future Presidents. What was particularly astounding (given the Media reports and Demographics) is several of the Latino’s queried, sounded more “Tea Party” than independent, and that the focus on fiscal responsibility, entitlements and job growth, was in step with those asked in Massachusetts in recent months. (Tea Party)

Again, although spot polling of men and women, virtually on the street, gives one a sense of what people may be thinking in one part of the nation or another, and is, again, non-scientific, those queried do belie the prevalent media think –additionally, one finds that those queried, specifically of Hispanic/Latino decent are extremely patriotic, are not interested in seeing Obama get a “second chance” and are interested in looking at which women are running (this also crosses gender demographics.)

One would hope that those women who are announced, or yet to be announced, make good use of internal polling, specifically the growing Hispanic/Latino bloc, as well as a general poll, similar to Rasmussen. Finally, regardless of who receives the Republican nomination, that individual, in 100% of those queried, will receive the vote. Finally, do not ignore Massachusetts, although thought to be a strong “blue state” and “Safe Democrat”, it is not a winner take all state, and goes towards delegates at the national Republican convention. There are two specific reasons: one to pick up extra delegates (needing only 15% of the primary vote to qualify for delegates), and 2) should the primary produce significant numbers for Massachusetts it would broadcast a strong signal to the balance of the nation that a Reagan tip election is at hand.

2012 Update: Romney In NH on Bachmann, Palin Right on History, In Iowa for Film – Appears to Avoid GOP, Poll: 73% - Woman as President within 10 Years

Romney, Palin & Bachmann - photo Politico.com - notice: Romney appears nervous, next to photos of both Palin and Bachmann - not necessarily the best - most often by design

Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts Governor, was in New Hampshire on the stump this week: in an interview, Romney, according to the Boston Herald ”refused to criticize new opponent U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann as she entered the GOP presidential field today instead calling the Minnesota Republican “a very strong contender.”. Romney touted his ability to work across the aisle, moving quickly to the middle in the State with a hefty population of refugees from Massachusetts. Massachusetts Republican’s, it should be noted, are more likely to work closely with their Democrat Counterparts, or in Romney’s case, the Legislature, simply due to numbers and their inability to get anything done in the Bay State otherwise dubbed, “the People’s Republic of Massachusetts”. They manage to do so, surprisingly, while continuing to hold onto basic conservative values, in some, not all cases – this moderate stance, although not necessarily helpful in a primary, plays well in a general election. That said Romney’s refusal to criticize Bachmann might be a strategy designed to avoid alienating both the conservative and women’s vote. Then again, Bachmann’s straight forward style might be a tad intimidating - should Romney chance a Huckabee type attack, he’d be sure to face some serious flak. In a recent poll conducted by the Des Moines Register, Bachmann tied Romney in Iowa.

Speaking of Bachmann (and any woman running for the top job), the LA times offers:”Michelle Bachmann Confronts Familiar Hurdles for Female Candidates: The article begins by noting a gaffe Bachmann made in New Hampshire (the State right next to Massachusetts) regarding the “shot heard round the world”, delved into Fox New’s Chris Wallace asking Bachmann if she were a “flake” and then speaks to the problems both Palin and Clinton faced in their respective bids in 2008. The article ends by stating the Rasmussen Poll noting a majority of voters believe a woman will be President within 10 years, more on that follows. Simply repeating that Bachmann, or any woman, is going to face problems based on gender bias, is stating the obvious, however, it should be noted that the gender biased faced by both Palin and Clinton in 2008 came mostly from – the media. More on the Rasmussen poll follows.

Regarding Palin, a letter written in the Beaumont Texas Enterprise, exonerates Palin who was incorrectly hammered by the media for a ‘non-gaffe’ in noting that Paul Revere warned the British – which was correct – the writer states: “Having been captured by British horsemen, he told them the Americans were alerted and waiting for them. Palin's point was that well-armed Americans were then a strength of our country and are now.” Apparently, they still teach history in Texas – and journalist or communications majors rarely take more than the required “overview” history course while pursuing a degree. The basics, Revere, on his way to warn the militia’s, was with compatriots, and upon understanding they were to be captured, his compatriot escaped to ride on, while Revere was held in British custody. The rest, as they say, is history. (History is a subject, which is often open to wild interpretation similar to the U.S. Constitution, when it fits a story line, or is designed to further an agenda or denigrate a political opponent.)

Palin, who will be in Iowa for a showing of Steven Bannon’s, “The Undefeated”, is reportedly not reaching out to key GOP activists in the state – Bannon, made the comment that, on his part, the lack of contact with the State GOP was by design, going for a more “populist” tone. It goes without saying that should Palin, announce (and there is more than ample time to do so), she may fare well in Iowa, or not – Although heavily touted as a bellwether (along with New Hampshire and South Carolina) in both major political party Presidential nomination processes, it is more likely, than not, that a candidate can have a strong showing in either state and still come up short in the long run (see 2008). Then again, in party politics, minute by minute news and the time differential between now and the primaries, anything can happen.

Speaking of which: The Rasmussen Reports, released a survey yesterday, that indicated 73% of the populace believe that a woman would be elected to the highest office “within the next 10 years”. One might ask, why the next ten years, why not the next two years? The answer: The pollsters first question asked: “1* How likely is it that a woman will be elected president of the United States in the next 10 years?”
In the analysis, 3 out of 4 voters believe it is “somewhat likely” this even may occur. Other points of interest in the poll of 1000 likely voters: Democrats are more likely to vote for a woman than Republican’s, yet, a majority believe the first woman elected would be a moderate (41%), followed by 27% who believe it will be a Conservative, and 16% who feel that woman will be a liberal. Read the entire article here: at rasmussenreports.com

The article does note that Bachman had “surged” to second place in a poll conducted by Rasmussen on June 16th. (Poll data here: at Rasmussen Reports.com

Note to Rasmussen: would you consider a poll with the same questions based on 2012?

The polls may explain Romney’s lack of criticism when it comes to Bachmann or Palin: perhaps, with both women in the race (or one), as the short-list for running mate begins early in the process, Romney would benefit, if not at the Top of the Ticket, decidedly at the bottom.

The most interesting facet to this race may be when and if, Palin enters the race, giving two women the national spotlight for the first time in history in any major party. Both Palin and Bachmann (normally touted in media articles as “Tea Party”, evangelical – surprisingly they are not being compared to George W. Bush as well!) would bring their fearless, conservative feminist style to the debate forum – making it much more entertaining than the last GOP CNN debate, where Bachmann evidently outshone her male counterparts. (Opinion). What would best serve the nation, in a utopian world, would be if labels were not applied to candidates, be they gender, race, religion or ethnicity – and each candidate would be allowed to advance or lag, dependent upon the will of the people (as opposed to a helping hand from the media). Early primary Predictions based on polling and who has announced (and little else); Bachmann/Romney would be the ticket. (As all are away crystal balls are prone to cracks!)