Tuesday, June 28, 2011

2012 Update: Romney In NH on Bachmann, Palin Right on History, In Iowa for Film – Appears to Avoid GOP, Poll: 73% - Woman as President within 10 Years


Romney, Palin & Bachmann - photo Politico.com - notice: Romney appears nervous, next to photos of both Palin and Bachmann - not necessarily the best - most often by design

Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts Governor, was in New Hampshire on the stump this week: in an interview, Romney, according to the Boston Herald ”refused to criticize new opponent U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann as she entered the GOP presidential field today instead calling the Minnesota Republican “a very strong contender.”. Romney touted his ability to work across the aisle, moving quickly to the middle in the State with a hefty population of refugees from Massachusetts. Massachusetts Republican’s, it should be noted, are more likely to work closely with their Democrat Counterparts, or in Romney’s case, the Legislature, simply due to numbers and their inability to get anything done in the Bay State otherwise dubbed, “the People’s Republic of Massachusetts”. They manage to do so, surprisingly, while continuing to hold onto basic conservative values, in some, not all cases – this moderate stance, although not necessarily helpful in a primary, plays well in a general election. That said Romney’s refusal to criticize Bachmann might be a strategy designed to avoid alienating both the conservative and women’s vote. Then again, Bachmann’s straight forward style might be a tad intimidating - should Romney chance a Huckabee type attack, he’d be sure to face some serious flak. In a recent poll conducted by the Des Moines Register, Bachmann tied Romney in Iowa.

Speaking of Bachmann (and any woman running for the top job), the LA times offers:”Michelle Bachmann Confronts Familiar Hurdles for Female Candidates: The article begins by noting a gaffe Bachmann made in New Hampshire (the State right next to Massachusetts) regarding the “shot heard round the world”, delved into Fox New’s Chris Wallace asking Bachmann if she were a “flake” and then speaks to the problems both Palin and Clinton faced in their respective bids in 2008. The article ends by stating the Rasmussen Poll noting a majority of voters believe a woman will be President within 10 years, more on that follows. Simply repeating that Bachmann, or any woman, is going to face problems based on gender bias, is stating the obvious, however, it should be noted that the gender biased faced by both Palin and Clinton in 2008 came mostly from – the media. More on the Rasmussen poll follows.

Regarding Palin, a letter written in the Beaumont Texas Enterprise, exonerates Palin who was incorrectly hammered by the media for a ‘non-gaffe’ in noting that Paul Revere warned the British – which was correct – the writer states: “Having been captured by British horsemen, he told them the Americans were alerted and waiting for them. Palin's point was that well-armed Americans were then a strength of our country and are now.” Apparently, they still teach history in Texas – and journalist or communications majors rarely take more than the required “overview” history course while pursuing a degree. The basics, Revere, on his way to warn the militia’s, was with compatriots, and upon understanding they were to be captured, his compatriot escaped to ride on, while Revere was held in British custody. The rest, as they say, is history. (History is a subject, which is often open to wild interpretation similar to the U.S. Constitution, when it fits a story line, or is designed to further an agenda or denigrate a political opponent.)

Palin, who will be in Iowa for a showing of Steven Bannon’s, “The Undefeated”, is reportedly not reaching out to key GOP activists in the state – Bannon, made the comment that, on his part, the lack of contact with the State GOP was by design, going for a more “populist” tone. It goes without saying that should Palin, announce (and there is more than ample time to do so), she may fare well in Iowa, or not – Although heavily touted as a bellwether (along with New Hampshire and South Carolina) in both major political party Presidential nomination processes, it is more likely, than not, that a candidate can have a strong showing in either state and still come up short in the long run (see 2008). Then again, in party politics, minute by minute news and the time differential between now and the primaries, anything can happen.

Speaking of which: The Rasmussen Reports, released a survey yesterday, that indicated 73% of the populace believe that a woman would be elected to the highest office “within the next 10 years”. One might ask, why the next ten years, why not the next two years? The answer: The pollsters first question asked: “1* How likely is it that a woman will be elected president of the United States in the next 10 years?”
In the analysis, 3 out of 4 voters believe it is “somewhat likely” this even may occur. Other points of interest in the poll of 1000 likely voters: Democrats are more likely to vote for a woman than Republican’s, yet, a majority believe the first woman elected would be a moderate (41%), followed by 27% who believe it will be a Conservative, and 16% who feel that woman will be a liberal. Read the entire article here: at rasmussenreports.com

The article does note that Bachman had “surged” to second place in a poll conducted by Rasmussen on June 16th. (Poll data here: at Rasmussen Reports.com

Note to Rasmussen: would you consider a poll with the same questions based on 2012?

The polls may explain Romney’s lack of criticism when it comes to Bachmann or Palin: perhaps, with both women in the race (or one), as the short-list for running mate begins early in the process, Romney would benefit, if not at the Top of the Ticket, decidedly at the bottom.

The most interesting facet to this race may be when and if, Palin enters the race, giving two women the national spotlight for the first time in history in any major party. Both Palin and Bachmann (normally touted in media articles as “Tea Party”, evangelical – surprisingly they are not being compared to George W. Bush as well!) would bring their fearless, conservative feminist style to the debate forum – making it much more entertaining than the last GOP CNN debate, where Bachmann evidently outshone her male counterparts. (Opinion). What would best serve the nation, in a utopian world, would be if labels were not applied to candidates, be they gender, race, religion or ethnicity – and each candidate would be allowed to advance or lag, dependent upon the will of the people (as opposed to a helping hand from the media). Early primary Predictions based on polling and who has announced (and little else); Bachmann/Romney would be the ticket. (As all are away crystal balls are prone to cracks!)

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