Poll Shocker: MA 6th District, Tisei Leads in Race by Double Digits, Romney-Obama Tied, Brown Up by 14 – Poll is Perfect: Analysis

Image: Massachusetts 6th District Map

From The Hill Blog: a new poll commissioned by the National Republican Congressional Committee sees GOP Candidate Richard Tisei besting, deeply entrenched, Democrat Congressman John Tierney in the general. The poll also shows that President Obama is 1 Point ahead of Mitt Romney in his home state, while Scott Brown, the Mass. Republican Senator, lead, Democrat Party darling, Elizabeth Warren by 16 points. The poll was characterized:

But the polling memo includes the party breakdown of those polled, which is similar to the makeup of Massachusetts. Thirty percent of those polled are identified as Democrats, 13 percent of those polled are identified as Republicans and 57 percent of those polled are identified as independent. In Massachusetts, the 2010 breakdown of registered voters was 37 percent Democratic, 11 percent Republican and 52 percent unaffiliated.

The poll was conducted by Stinson Strategies with 561 respondents and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

(Press Release RNCC included in Hill blog Paragraph)

That poll is shocking politically on three levels: the first to unseat any deeply entrenched Democrat Congressional Representative in MA is nothing short of a daydream in most instances, second, that Obama and Romney are in a statistical tie defies logic and finally, 3: Scott Brown – makes sense, except for the polls, considering Essex County and the Boston area put Brown up by 5 points.

Registered Voters by Party by Town MA Secretary of State The polling marginal’s are shown to be slightly skewed in the above scenario, in favor of the Republican, however: An analysis comparing the newly redrawn 6th district with voter returns from 2010 shows this to be the most accurate polling model in any election to date – period.

Refer to photo’s district map as well as the return of votes Voter registration in Tierney’s Current district almost mirrors the polls sample: Out of 100% of voters in the new 6th: 31% are Democrats, 13% Republican, less than 2% Libertarian, and 54% (rounded to nearest percentile) Unenrolled The poll sample: 30% Democrat, 13 Republican, 57% Unenrolled

The polling data was automated, therefore, regardless of the fact that this was a Republican commissioned poll; the data supports the findings, perhaps for the first time in this election. To suggest that Romney and Obama are tied in Massachusetts would belie the balance of the polls – those that have been published. The Commonwealth continues to be polled on President Obama’s Job Approval, as well as voting patterns; this includes the relatively blue 1st District.

The races to watch in Massachusetts – especially with redistricting, would be – the 6th, and the 4th (Barney Frank retired when the new maps were drawn, making the 4th the most Conservative District in the Commonwealth – so much so it resembles Wyoming! It’s doubtful that even bringing a Kennedy in will make a difference, Sean Bielat is the Republican who came close to sealing Barney Frank’s fate in 2010 – He’s got a great ground-game to go up against the usual ballot stuffing and dead voting tactics used by the oppositions.

Suffice it to say – Massachusetts is in play – and those who are watching this state and our former Governor may be tempted to party like its 1980!

Resources: MA Secretary of State 2010 Voter Registration by District and Town

MA Legislature, New District Maps Note: Due to Population Loss, Massachusetts lost one of 10 remaining districts. All current Congressional Representatives are Democrat.

Barney Frank Town Hall Meeting – Blue State Massachusetts Draws Large Crowd – Analysis and Personal Perspective

The nation has seen a slew of Health Care Reform Town Hall meetings and Forums held by Representatives and Senators throughout August; with the result that most have had unexpectedly large turnouts of both detractors and supports (Union and ACORN) of the proposed plan. Barney Frank’s meeting was no exception, as crowd estimates varied from 200 to 300 constituentsmost of whom appeared to have an unfavorable opinion of the program. What is of interest in this process, is the fact that in States that are viewed as being “owned” by the Democrat Party, such as Massachustts, the crowds are large and they are loud. One would anticipate that states labeled as such would clearly support the plan, with a lower than average turnout at a Barney Frank Meeting (re: this was not originally intended to be a Health Care meeting, rather a meeting on issues with the Dartmouth MA DNC – but was opened to the public – an actual Health Care Town Hall Meeting will be held by Barney Frank, location and date is currently to be announced.

One possible explanation for the intensity of the opposition to any government run program by Massachusetts citizens, is that a recent poll by Gallop suggests that more American’s view themselves as conservatives than liberal – even in Massachusetts. Conservatives (not to be confused with the Republican Party), more often favor free market solutions, rather than government controlled entities (which result in higher taxes) while Liberals (not to be confused with all individual Democrats), favor a socialist form of government where all aspects of one’s life are run by the government, from health care to utilities – the government owns and operates all business, from auto makers to utilities to healthcare.

Also of interest is the treatment of the Frank Meeting by a variety of news sources – there are several clips below, based on the same incident, but reported differently, depending upon the media outlet. One thing is certain, regardless of the tone of the constituent, up to and including the misguided comparison of Obama to Hitler (which, as many of these protestors have not been involved in the political process prior to this administration, may not be aware of the details of each and every “star” in the political arena, therefore, may not have been aware that this particular comparison would have been particularly offensive to Frank as he is Jewish – that said, she is still, as Mr. Frank pointed out, within her Contitutional Right to do so.) Mr. Frank, however, had no excuse to talk down to and make sport of his constituents, even those that disagreed with him most – he is an elected official, therefore, held to a higher standard, and could have responded disapprovingly without insulting his constituents.

From this bloggers perspective on the debate in general: We are a nation of immigrants, and perhaps, like myself, many of those attending these meetings, have drawn from family backgrounds. As a first generation American of Austrian and Spanish decent, with an extended family in Europe throughout the decades; the firsthand accounts of life under a socialist form of government (Austria), and Fascism (Spain), led to a firm belief that the American form of government was to be treasured. With a father who was a civil rights activist, as well as organizer for one of the most powerful unions in the country during the 1950’s through the 1960’s – what was taught was that our country was great simply because we were able to demonstrate – without fear of being shot or imprisoned, what he feared most was Socialism and Fascism of any form. On the maternal side, the losses to the family during World War II were severe, as relatives were either pressed into service by the government (Hitler), or murdered depending upon their religious affiliation. This gave a unique perspective on the import of less government, and greater control by the people, as the essential element of American Government. Therefore, any option that is run by the government in regards to health care, or business, only brings the current Democratic Republic closer to a socialist model. The fear of the aforementioned is what is driving independents, moderate Democrats, Libertarians and Republicans to these town hall meetings, many for the first time, to lend a voice in opposition to any plan that even smacks of a socialized model – even in Massachusetts



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