Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Poll Shocker: MA 6th District, Tisei Leads in Race by Double Digits, Romney-Obama Tied, Brown Up by 14 – Poll is Perfect: Analysis

Image: Massachusetts 6th District Map

From The Hill Blog: a new poll commissioned by the National Republican Congressional Committee sees GOP Candidate Richard Tisei besting, deeply entrenched, Democrat Congressman John Tierney in the general. The poll also shows that President Obama is 1 Point ahead of Mitt Romney in his home state, while Scott Brown, the Mass. Republican Senator, lead, Democrat Party darling, Elizabeth Warren by 16 points. The poll was characterized:

But the polling memo includes the party breakdown of those polled, which is similar to the makeup of Massachusetts. Thirty percent of those polled are identified as Democrats, 13 percent of those polled are identified as Republicans and 57 percent of those polled are identified as independent. In Massachusetts, the 2010 breakdown of registered voters was 37 percent Democratic, 11 percent Republican and 52 percent unaffiliated.

The poll was conducted by Stinson Strategies with 561 respondents and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

(Press Release RNCC included in Hill blog Paragraph)

That poll is shocking politically on three levels: the first to unseat any deeply entrenched Democrat Congressional Representative in MA is nothing short of a daydream in most instances, second, that Obama and Romney are in a statistical tie defies logic and finally, 3: Scott Brown – makes sense, except for the polls, considering Essex County and the Boston area put Brown up by 5 points.

Registered Voters by Party by Town MA Secretary of State The polling marginal’s are shown to be slightly skewed in the above scenario, in favor of the Republican, however: An analysis comparing the newly redrawn 6th district with voter returns from 2010 shows this to be the most accurate polling model in any election to date – period.

Refer to photo’s district map as well as the return of votes Voter registration in Tierney’s Current district almost mirrors the polls sample: Out of 100% of voters in the new 6th: 31% are Democrats, 13% Republican, less than 2% Libertarian, and 54% (rounded to nearest percentile) Unenrolled The poll sample: 30% Democrat, 13 Republican, 57% Unenrolled

The polling data was automated, therefore, regardless of the fact that this was a Republican commissioned poll; the data supports the findings, perhaps for the first time in this election. To suggest that Romney and Obama are tied in Massachusetts would belie the balance of the polls – those that have been published. The Commonwealth continues to be polled on President Obama’s Job Approval, as well as voting patterns; this includes the relatively blue 1st District.

The races to watch in Massachusetts – especially with redistricting, would be – the 6th, and the 4th (Barney Frank retired when the new maps were drawn, making the 4th the most Conservative District in the Commonwealth – so much so it resembles Wyoming! It’s doubtful that even bringing a Kennedy in will make a difference, Sean Bielat is the Republican who came close to sealing Barney Frank’s fate in 2010 – He’s got a great ground-game to go up against the usual ballot stuffing and dead voting tactics used by the oppositions.

Suffice it to say – Massachusetts is in play – and those who are watching this state and our former Governor may be tempted to party like its 1980!

Resources: MA Secretary of State 2010 Voter Registration by District and Town

MA Legislature, New District Maps Note: Due to Population Loss, Massachusetts lost one of 10 remaining districts. All current Congressional Representatives are Democrat.

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