2012 GOP Poll Watch – WSJ - By The Numbers, Cain Leads, 68% Satisfied with Current GOP Eight: Poll Demo’s: 40% Dem 19% Ind., 36% Rep., 5% Other

The GOP Field - Majority - Satisfied

A Wall Street Journal Poll conducted October 6-10 has headlined as Herman Cain Leads “Republican” Field “on various websites linking to the poll data. However, when one takes a closer look at that data one finds that Cain and, in fact, the “Field of Eight” do quite well even crossing party lines – For example: 63% of those polls are satisfied and aware of the GOP field, and 40% of those polled are Democrats, the proof as they say is in the math.

Other “gems “found in this poll, but not getting much notice: 74% of those polled feel the nation is headed down the wrong road – 57% Feel the President is not doing a great job handling the economy, the Democrat and Republican Parties are equally loathed by (42% (Dem), 44% (Rep.) – and Job Creation is the number one issue topping at 70%, when GOP Voters are identified the figure remains high at 60%, second most important issue (both political affiliation): the deficit and federal spending.


click to enlarge poll data image via pdf msnbc

Those who are anticipating voting and are more enthusiastic for the 2012 election than other years, and the total is high - 50% are more enthusiastic, 11% are the Same, and 38% are less enthusiastic (See Demographics while sitting down).


click to enlarge poll data image via pdf msnbc

On voting in the primary: 30% intend to vote in the Republican Party, while 26% intend to vote in the Democrat Party with 39% holding until the General Election – and 5% either other or not sure.


click to enlarge poll data image via pdf msnbc

Finally, among voters who indicated they would be voting in the Republican Primary: the candidates in order of “Positivity” or how much they are known/liked:
Herman Cain: 46%, Romney: 35%, Gingrich: 26%, Perry: 20% and Rick Santorum: 15% - the balance of the candidates has a single digit “positivity score”.

However if the election were held today, those intending to vote would choose Herman Cain, (by 5 points), Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Ron Paul (The balance in single digits)

Therefore, what we find, as of this particular poll (and other polls where Cain is either leading and/or points from Mitt Romney): Cain, a non-Washington Candidate is leading, Democrats are jumping ship, those in either party do not approve of their party, and going into the general enthusiasm is fairly high among what one can assume by the numbers: Republicans and Republican leaners.

Finally and of most import - overall President Obama still is personally perceived well: in positivity – tying with Herman Cain with all voters at a score of 6, Romney is next In line at a -2 on the net Positive/Negative test.

This is how the Field stands going into Tuesday nights’ debate, which will be broadcast on CNN at 8 pm EST. Cain and Romney are the two most under scrutiny at this point, should Perry or Newt Gingrich or Paul rise to the top in the ensuing weeks, it would be the same. However, this debate bears watching, as do each performance of these eight candidates; this constant debate cycle shows several things to the primary voter: how well the candidate takes criticism (especially the current front-runner, who will be basically put under the negative spotlight consistently by both the moderator and if allowed, the other candidates), How well prepared the candidate is, and if not prepared, comes back with an honest, no, finally, to all those Democrats watching and showing an interest in the GOP candidates – the individuals sense of humor and ability to speak to the issues. (Most often said by left of center associates: a) who knew Republicans had a sense of humor, and b) who knew Republican’s have actual plans.)

One important factor to the media and beltway pundits is: the Cash! – Right at the moment, the leaders in the Cash Field are Romney, Perry, Paul, Bachmann and Cain – (in Order), however, as one can recall from 2008 and before, the Candidate with the Most Cash going in, does not always end up being the nominee – therefore, this year should promise to be any different.

What to watch for in the coming weeks: The President will most likely continue to campaign with the Occupy theme, Herman Cain plans to establish a presence in key primary states: New Hampshire and Iowa specifically – of course, these are important “early states” however, the southern state schedule, which has also moved up will play the most important roll given what took place in the 2008 primary. (Romney took NH, Huckabee IA, and McCain (with a little help from Fred Thompson who knocked out Huckabee) took South Carolina - at which point the die was cast, and contenders began to pull back, with Romney the first to call it quits and incidentally the candidate with the biggest “war chest”.

Overall Democrats appear to be willing to vote (today) along party lines, with a close race called for Obama as incumbent and any Republican – 44/42% (Obama 44%) – Note: This is the only pollster showing that Obama is in positive territory when it comes to reelection.

Therefore, although Cain leads the field, and the field is perceived as satisfactory by a majority of voters (all parties), the logic follows that he is, at the present time, the best choice to achieve the goal of taking the White House. Should Herman Cain's name recognition among likely voters rise, and his positives rise with that recognition, then he would be the definitive candidate to beat the Incumbent.

2012 GOP Presidential Contenders – Trump, Palin, Romney, Pawlenty and Huckabee - Media Analysis and Update

Trump in Good Company - Ronald Reagan Depicted as a Clown - image: publicly funded PBS.org


A Boston Herald article by Rachelle Cohen, entitled “No Trump-ing Obama”, notes that there are so many candidates and potential candidates for the GOP nomination, none of them attracting more than 19% of the total, that Obama should be pleased indeed and easily reelected. The logic belies the fact that out of the myriad field of contenders, only one, to date has announced an exploratory committee, one Mitt Romney. Additionally, what is of more import perhaps is that regardless of how one feels about any one of the “candidates”, at the least, they are taking time out of their lives to run for public office (or think about it, more to the point). What it does leave the nation with are choices, and as far as the media whining about not having a front runner this “late” in the game, are perhaps not familiar with the history of 2000, where major contenders did not announce until August, and the field was full, both Democrat and Republican. Although Al Gore was a given, due to the fact that he was the Vice President under Clinton, he still had challengers, and the simple fact is, having challengers helps the public to winnow out the chaff from the wheat so to speak.

Just follow the polls, the general public is already talking through them, and the fact is, they are split as no one has officially declared (exploratory committee is not a campaign committee). The same was true in early 2007 when politicians began to line up to run or be expected to run:
In 2007 the field of Democrats included: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden, Dennis Kucinich, and Mike Gravel. The Republican field included: Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter. It was not until well after the first primaries in 2008 that front runners emerged on both sides and the race was off and running.

Understanding that Obama and Company (the Campaign, not the President per se), and the media, have intentional short memories, it is good to remind the lot of them that having 5 candidates a year before the first primary takes places results in numbers similar to those 19% leads currently held by 2012 GOP “potential candidates”.

That said, one cannot stress enough the fact that, those that run, do so out of conviction and love of country, they must, regardless of how many times someone calls an individual a myriad of insulting and most often misleading “names”, it remains reasonable that unless one wanted the job of overseeing the finances and well-being of this Great Nation, losing 10 years off one’s life in less than 2 years, and taking a ration of utter crap from the press, they would not be doing so for any “publicity stunt”, especially since, in viewing the field of GOP contenders, not one seems hard pressed for personal cash, fame and or the need to put up with the crazy people in the general media.

As it is the end of the week, it was important to point out the fact that the current crop of “potential candidates for the GOP” are doing exactly what they are supposed to be doing, getting the attention of “likely GOP voters”, and the press can write and report on the lack of front runners all they like, until such time as one of those running, pulls out with a majority in a poll conducted by any reasonable pollster, at the right time, the polls running now, are akin to taking a pulse on a patient that is literally in a coma, until they wake up and announce their intent to run officially. At that point, one can bet the house, those 19% leads will be, if the announced candidate is the choice of those voting with the GOP, multiplied by, at the least 60 percent, to the 30’s, and as the next one appears, those numbers will go up and down, until the debates, which, incidentally a decade ago, were held in October of the year prior to the election. One’s stock would rise upon winning the Iowa Caucus and or the New Hampshire Primary, or perhaps not until one has been though the winnowing field of South Carolina.

Meanwhile, Obama has recycled his Campaign from 2008, the price of gas is about to go to $5.00 and beyond, unemployment has not moved, the dollar is declining and inflation is on the rise, never mind key topics like the Health Care Bill that the majority of the public continues to rail against. Who’s zooming who? (Taking a line from the great Aretha Franklin.)

What are those that have a toe in the GOP Presidential Water up to this coming week?

The Donald, who is serious as a heart attack, will be in Florida at a Tea Party Rally in Boca Raton, with Congressional Representative Allen West Judging from emails received by this blog in unprecedented amounts over the past week, The Donald is running the gamut of approval by the entire spectrum of political strange bedfellows. An expert from one enthusiastic Bay Stater enthusiastically noted: “ I also believe The Donald will be our next President. He is starting to get the " Reagan treatment" by the press. He has already been depicted as a clown.” (See Cartoon of Reagan above from PBS).

Trump was to attend a small rally in Boca, which, once news got out that he was going to attend, turned into a much larger crowd, the event had to be moved in order to accommodate the increased interest in Trump. He is also set to announce his bid (according to a variety of reports) after or immediately following the final NBC Apprentice show, which, with Neilson checking heads, might give an indication of interest vis a vis ratings for Trump. On the Trump – Obama Birth Certificate Issue – it’s being overplayed by the press – so much so that the obvious vitriol towards Trump is helping, not hurting him. It is also a matter of fact that Trump is merely expressing an opinion, shared by many, that there might be more to the issue of the Presidents Constitutional Eligibility to hold the office. Therein lays the crux and the confusion. Although this blog advocates leaving that issue lay, the fact remains that the Constitution is clear on one fact, No person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty-five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.” Therefore, there is a litmus test, so to speak. One cannot merely be a citizen, one must meet certain credentials. Of course, a great deal depends on how one views the Constitution, either as written in stone, or interpretive. Regardless, the right to question, is guaranteed by the First Amendment (the one upon which the Press relies). Trump is merely expressing an interest in the subject as well as defending the Constitutional rights of others to do the same. Good for him.




Sarah Palin, who has lost some of the limelight given the entrance of the Donald will be at a Tea Party rally in Madison Wisconsin, home of the stand-up to unions Governor Scott Walker, and now home to many transplanted SEIU paid personnel who are there to stand up for the rights of the people who pay their salaries (i.e. Wisconsin Public Employees). It should be interesting; those on the left apparently are planning a counter rally to the Tea Party.

Mitt Romney is faced with trouble in his own back yard - Massachusetts Conservatives (i.e. Libertarians, the rank and file Republicans and those who identify themselves as conservatives, aren’t throwing their support behind Mitt. Romney is not, apparently attending any Tea Party Rally in the Bay State, but his competition is:

Former Minnesota Govenor, Tim Pawlentywill be in Boston for the Tea Party Rally on tax day (April 15th), with a trip to New Hampshire planned.

Finally, the man who runs strongest in national polls (Gallup) (until recently – see tied with Trump), former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee is takings some heat for his support of in-state tuition for those here in the nation not quite legally – his premise, children of illegal immigrants (which may mean these students are American Citizens, by the way), should be eligible for in-state tuition, as it would expand the tax base, as they would gain employment, rather than an EBT card. Although this logic drives the “right of right” insane, especially those in certain presidential candidate opposition camps, Huckabee has a point.

(Side Note: during a recent interview, Donald Trump noted that the border problems could be fixed, by putting our military on the border (agreed), and then deciding, on a case by case basis those illegally in the nation’s ability to stay or be deported – the criteria, productive, stay, criminal go. (Agreed!).