The GOP Field - Majority - Satisfied
A Wall Street Journal Poll conducted October 6-10 has headlined as Herman Cain Leads “Republican” Field “on various websites linking to the poll data. However, when one takes a closer look at that data one finds that Cain and, in fact, the “Field of Eight” do quite well even crossing party lines – For example: 63% of those polls are satisfied and aware of the GOP field, and 40% of those polled are Democrats, the proof as they say is in the math.
Other “gems “found in this poll, but not getting much notice: 74% of those polled feel the nation is headed down the wrong road – 57% Feel the President is not doing a great job handling the economy, the Democrat and Republican Parties are equally loathed by (42% (Dem), 44% (Rep.) – and Job Creation is the number one issue topping at 70%, when GOP Voters are identified the figure remains high at 60%, second most important issue (both political affiliation): the deficit and federal spending.
click to enlarge poll data image via pdf msnbc
Those who are anticipating voting and are more enthusiastic for the 2012 election than other years, and the total is high - 50% are more enthusiastic, 11% are the Same, and 38% are less enthusiastic (See Demographics while sitting down).
click to enlarge poll data image via pdf msnbc
On voting in the primary: 30% intend to vote in the Republican Party, while 26% intend to vote in the Democrat Party with 39% holding until the General Election – and 5% either other or not sure.
click to enlarge poll data image via pdf msnbc
Finally, among voters who indicated they would be voting in the Republican Primary: the candidates in order of “Positivity” or how much they are known/liked:
Herman Cain: 46%, Romney: 35%, Gingrich: 26%, Perry: 20% and Rick Santorum: 15% - the balance of the candidates has a single digit “positivity score”.
However if the election were held today, those intending to vote would choose Herman Cain, (by 5 points), Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Ron Paul (The balance in single digits)
Therefore, what we find, as of this particular poll (and other polls where Cain is either leading and/or points from Mitt Romney): Cain, a non-Washington Candidate is leading, Democrats are jumping ship, those in either party do not approve of their party, and going into the general enthusiasm is fairly high among what one can assume by the numbers: Republicans and Republican leaners.
Finally and of most import - overall President Obama still is personally perceived well: in positivity – tying with Herman Cain with all voters at a score of 6, Romney is next In line at a -2 on the net Positive/Negative test.
This is how the Field stands going into Tuesday nights’ debate, which will be broadcast on CNN at 8 pm EST. Cain and Romney are the two most under scrutiny at this point, should Perry or Newt Gingrich or Paul rise to the top in the ensuing weeks, it would be the same. However, this debate bears watching, as do each performance of these eight candidates; this constant debate cycle shows several things to the primary voter: how well the candidate takes criticism (especially the current front-runner, who will be basically put under the negative spotlight consistently by both the moderator and if allowed, the other candidates), How well prepared the candidate is, and if not prepared, comes back with an honest, no, finally, to all those Democrats watching and showing an interest in the GOP candidates – the individuals sense of humor and ability to speak to the issues. (Most often said by left of center associates: a) who knew Republicans had a sense of humor, and b) who knew Republican’s have actual plans.)
One important factor to the media and beltway pundits is: the Cash! – Right at the moment, the leaders in the Cash Field are Romney, Perry, Paul, Bachmann and Cain – (in Order), however, as one can recall from 2008 and before, the Candidate with the Most Cash going in, does not always end up being the nominee – therefore, this year should promise to be any different.
What to watch for in the coming weeks: The President will most likely continue to campaign with the Occupy theme, Herman Cain plans to establish a presence in key primary states: New Hampshire and Iowa specifically – of course, these are important “early states” however, the southern state schedule, which has also moved up will play the most important roll given what took place in the 2008 primary. (Romney took NH, Huckabee IA, and McCain (with a little help from Fred Thompson who knocked out Huckabee) took South Carolina - at which point the die was cast, and contenders began to pull back, with Romney the first to call it quits and incidentally the candidate with the biggest “war chest”.
Overall Democrats appear to be willing to vote (today) along party lines, with a close race called for Obama as incumbent and any Republican – 44/42% (Obama 44%) – Note: This is the only pollster showing that Obama is in positive territory when it comes to reelection.
Therefore, although Cain leads the field, and the field is perceived as satisfactory by a majority of voters (all parties), the logic follows that he is, at the present time, the best choice to achieve the goal of taking the White House. Should Herman Cain's name recognition among likely voters rise, and his positives rise with that recognition, then he would be the definitive candidate to beat the Incumbent.
No comments:
Post a Comment