Final PPP South Carolina Poll 1 – 20 – 12 – Gingrich Up by 9 Points Over Romney - Romney Lowers Expectations.

Public Policy PollingJanuary 20th S.C. poll shows Newt Gingrich with a significant lead over Romney in the Palmetto State. The poll here has Gingrich leading Romney in all key Republican demographics. One note, however, although ID is required to vote in S.C., it is an open primary, where anyone registered voter may cast a ballot. Gingrich, in national polling, is leading among independents, so it is likely the same can be said for South Carolina. On the issue of ABC’s release of Gingrich’s ex-wife’s interview days before the primary, the polling conducted shows that it is of little to no consequence, in, fact, if anything; it has pushed the electorate behind Gingrich.

With the state of Florida and then Nevada weighing in prior to Super Tuesday, it is not without some merit that the Commonwealth of Massachusetts should be polled – this would end any questions as to how the electorate in Massachusetts feels about Mitt Romney as opposed to Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul. In simple “supermarket surveys” conducted by this blogger, (absolutely unscientific), Gingrich is the first choice, followed by Ron Paul, then Obama and then Romney (This is Western Massachusetts). It is hoped that a firm such as PPP will poll Massachusetts prior to Super Tuesday.

That aside, South Carolina has accurately predicted the nominee since 1980, and the Romney campaign is lowering expectations. In a video via Breitbart.tv - Romney notes that “Newt Will Win a Few Big States”. In the 2008 election, Romney followed a similar patter, losing Iowa to Huckabee, he lost NH to McCain but the margin as not as great), and then McCain won SC, Romney was out by February (immediately following losses across the south and Midwest, which are key to a Presidential Victory, regardless of the party.).

Jan. 7 & 8 Republican Debate Reminder - Gingrich Ad Analysis

There will be two debates this weekend, just prior to the New Hampshire primary.

One will take place on January 7th, ABC is the Network, and 9 PM, the time (Eastern). Candidates participating in this debate: Huntsman, Gingrich, Paul, Perry, Romney and Santorum.

The second will take place on January 8th, at 9AM - (set your dvr's!), NBC with the New Hampshire Union Leader and Facebook - participants - same as above.

This should be an interesting debate given the fact that the schematics of the race (polling wise) in New Hampshire are similar to the 2008 race in which Romney was favored to win in all polling, a week before the primary, yet McCain pulled out a win. This was due to ads run by McCain right up to the election. A Version of this ad is shown below. Gingrich is following a similar tactic, comparing and contrasting - ad aslo shown below.

Given the fact that both ads contain truths, that McCain endorsed Romney (which is in teh real world: funny), and that Santorum, Perry and Gingrich are all goign to be trying to knock Romney off the "anointed" status, without being as - bluntly put- nasty as the Romney campagin, it should fare well with all three candidates, at current polling Romney Leads, with Santorum 2nd and Gingrich 4th in New Hampshire, Ron Paul is the wild horse, who may upend any one of these candidates in the Granite State.

2007 - 2008 ad run by the McCain Campaign, recycled just in time by the PAC supporting Gingrich



Gingrich ad Running in NH - "Timid" - an Effective Contrast Ad