Monday, April 28, 2014

Rand Paul and the Libertarian’s – What’s the appeal going into 2016? – Paul wins Maine Straw Poll

Rand Paul recently won the GOP Straw poll at the Maine GOP convention. (Politico). What that means in the most simple terms, is that the activist within the Maine GOP have a majority of Ron Paul supporters giving him both the college grassroots (where he has a good ground) to set up a solid shop for 2016 in the state. Right as of this morning, leading in hypothetical national polls is fine, but without ground troops; one might as well be throwing money into the wind when trying to put together a national campaign.

You need both –

Enter the “Wealthy” Libertarians as they would be dubbed by the New York Times:

“As he has risen in prominence as a Republican presidential contender, Mr. Paul is avidly courting a small but influential cluster of wealthy libertarians. His pursuit offers an intriguing window into an eclectic network of potential donors who have made fortunes in Silicon Valley start-ups and Wall Street hedge funds, a group that could form a vital donor base if he makes a bid for the Republican nomination. A tight-knit tribe of philanthropists and entrepreneurs, they have exerted enormous intellectual influence on conservative policy. But they have historically spent more on nonprofit groups and endowing college economics departments than they have on backing candidates.”

In other words, a Barry Goldwater, who ran as a Republican, and attracted college students and Middle America, including one young Hillary Rodham Clinton.(The Economist)

What is the appeal one might ask when one weighs the differences between the two major parties, and one individual who has a political ideology from a third party? The third party, Libertarians hold a variety of belief’s that appeal to both Conservatives as well as Liberals- they are, for the most part, anti-war, pro-woman’s rights, and complete fiscal conservatives –suggesting that without free-markets (Capitalism) one might as well pack it in. Smart spending versus Big Government wasteful spending has always been a bone of contention with the Libertarian. What Goldwater did not have was timing. Whereas Paul does – today’s millennial are disaffected and disappointed – there are fewer opportunities of the scale that would make younger people more independent and offer more mobility, rather than the current trend of living indefinitely with parents in order to pay off enormous student loans (that industry owned by the Federal Government as well), while finding temp work rather than a career for which they had prepared.

Therefore, as the timing is one which would welcome a state’s rights, free market thinker in the political arena, it may take some doing for the left (including the media) to scare the voter away from Senator Paul. Although odds are better than average that the Democrats will include a woman at the top of the ticket – the timing for that maybe off a bit. With a brand damaged by the Affordable Health Care act, among other lesser publicized “scandals” – the 2014 and 2016 elections will be held in the hands of Barack Obama, much in the same way as the 2006 and 2008 elections were credited to George W. Bush. (Note on that front, the RNC’s ability to front the weakest candidate possible in a given year where by any counts they should win handily, confounds logic. In the case of Bush, some blame has to be placed on the candidacy of John McCain, a Bob Dole for the present age. Romney is another RNC pick, and they are seriously dragging out the political dynasty of Bush once again, with Jeb. One can only hope that they play their cards correctly this time out and stay out of this General Election. It is time for a shift to Liberty minded “Jeffersonian Republicans” to take the reins. Paul is that person, it remains to be seen if his broad appeal to multiple factions opens the eyes of those in DC that cannot see beyond the beltway.

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