Monday, January 20, 2014

Obama believes Poll Numbers down due to Racism – Yet, other factors may be driving decline in approval.



From Bloomberg.com, comes an article where the President, Barack Obama, suggests that racism is playing a factor in him decline in approval. Gallup currently has his approval rating at 39%. (Bloomberg).

One might suggest that it is not racism, rather the economy, political ideology differences, and numerous “scandals”, that have brought his poll numbers to a new low. If one is to compare the vote in both 2008 and 2012, one gains some insight into the “race card” being played out on every conceivable scenario. Preface that by the fact that yes, racism exists, in all forms, whether one is African-American, Asian, Hispanic, or white (both in terms of African American racism (Cracker), and in terms of inter-demographic socio-economic (White Trash). Go figure. Although prior to the arrival of the first African American to run for the Presidency, let alone get elected, one might have thought that yes, pockets of racism existed, however, that was past and the past was behind us.

This is speaking from the experience of a young blond child, being held by her Spanish father, at a Union event in the 1950’s, where epitaphs of “Colored” were bandied about in relationship to a “dark man” holding a “blonde baby”. One was either white, or not. It was one of those memories that always puzzled, as one would not think color of the skin would enter into the scheme of things. It was always a question of competence of the individual.

Fast forward through the 1960’s through 1990’s and with laws in place, diversified workplaces, and schools and colleges, and one would think nothing of anyone other than by their own merit. Then in 2007 and 2008, the world was, once again, made aware that there was “racism” in this nation. Who knew? If one said something negative about an individual running for office, such as pertaining to experience, they were racist. Oddly enough, some were thinking that with the experience, and then Candidate Barack Obama had, was hauntingly similar to one Jimmy Carter (White Southern Baptist), which made many leery of voting for then Candidate Obama.

Fast forward 4 years, again, after 4 years of a stagnant economy, and for many differences in political ideology – that same Barack Obama was reelected. Nothing has changed for the better, in fact, with the roll-out of Obama Care, and the rank incompetence displayed by those who were hired to do the job; the President is surprised that his poll numbers have dropped. It must be racism.

The problem lays in the fact that fewer people today believe that race plays a factor, in hiring, or otherwise (gender, different story), therefore, when one is say a boss, and things go wrong, the boss is to blame, the further up the rung one sits, the proverbial flake falls upward. Since the President if visible, then he is the target of angst for all things economic and political that may go wrong with his administration.

To point out demographically speaking, the elections of 2008 and 2012, one finds that everyone who voted as “categorized” – (as in every election)

In 2008, the Republican’s ran John McCain (no confidence) against the rising star of the Democrat Party, Barack Obama: who won a majority of the women, African American, Asian, Other, Youth, etc. in all categories except for “white”. In that instance he lost 12 points to McCain, one might wish to scream racism, but is it even entirely possible that those 12 points were Republican Brand Votes, or fear of Jimmy Carter returning votes? (Roper Center UCONN) (Note the same differential between John Kerry & George Bush)

In 2012, the Republican’s ran Mitt Romney (a slightly younger version of John McCain, but not by much), Oddly enough, the Democrat, although winning, lost across points across all demographics, yet still won the election. (National Journal On line). One might suggest that had Evangelical and Tea Party prejudices not hampered Romney, the political scene would be different.

The problem with assuming Race as a factor is that one truly does not know. Unless one is polling every voting station in the country – and asking if racism played a part, one does not know that vote were cast based on a) political affiliation) or b) political ideal logy) or c)someone just wants somebody new.

Therefore, one might conclude, that Racism, is playing a very minor factor (admitting it exists), and to the larger extent, it is a condemnation of the job performance.

Up next, gender – Women, who are a majority (minority in pay equity), may see a woman run for President in 2016. One might suggest that this woman would succeed if that woman can connect to the majority of the voters on competence. One might also think that the vote will not go to a woman who has little to no experience in government, based on the fact that the public has “been down that road”. With more individuals identifying themselves as no party affiliatin (or independent) – at a staggering 42%, one might see a totally different schematic play out. However, having a brand, in this opinion, a strong brand,(as in Party Leadership), one might as well save their campaign cash or run for another office. Assuming 42% of the voter, identify with someone running as a Democrat or Republican who is more Libertarian, green party, or even disantace themselves from the major brand, that individual should, it follows, be elected. A doctor, perhaps, or someone who runs a business, and one, who has not been in office for decades, but a decent length of time, say at least one full term. Icing on the cake, someone disliked by both parties “leadership”. There are several that fit this mold, but, as it is too soon to tell who will or will not run (next year – during the midterms the process should begin). Now, whether that individual is a man, a woman, African American, Hispanic, what have you, will not matter, it will be their personal ideology that counts, no matter how wacky – or perhaps because how wacky the Party power brokers believe the to be.

As to the President, it matters not what race he is, it matters only that he is being seen as fixing the problem. Additionally, historically few if any incumbents have fabulous approval ratings in their 2nd term.

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