Tuesday, January 21, 2014
New Hampshire – 2014- Scott Brown – Not Declared – behind Sheehan (D) Incumbent by3 points? –Let the Games Begin
One does not even have to be a declared candidate to meet polling margin of error in 2014 -image Poltiico
2014 is starting to shape up similarly to 2009 - Politico is reporting that Public Policy Polling has Scott Brown with an early deficit of 3 points should he decide to run against the incumbent, Democrat Cindy Sheehan.
To those watching minor mayoral races, city council races, and the like in 2009, there was a refreshing schematic that became apparent in close to sixty percent of the races nationwide, and that was the incumbent – lost. It was not, by any means, a partisan route, as in Democrats only – although that did play a factor in Massachusetts. However, it was anti-incumbency – mad at Congress and the major parties, that had a hand it the vote.
Therefore, one would surmise, that no seat is “safe” in 2014. Of course, that’s a long ways off – and things can and do change. The economy could come roaring back to life, the Democrat and the Republicans in Congress and the Senate, might just put aside all their difference and cooperate on multiple issues, especially the revising the Affordable Health Care Act, the President might just get a little more centric, and Harry Reid may switch parties – all of the aforementioned, of course, are as likely as any change taking place to alleviate the overtaxed and disappearing middle class, as well as the angst felt by those 20 something’s who have – no hope.
Polling is also a funny thing, depending upon the pollster – a recent Rasmussen Poll on Presidential matchups, for example, gave two choices as to whom one would prefer – Hillary Clinton or Chris Christie. One was compelled to finish the polling electing one or the other. If the point of the poll was to see how one would do against another in this hypothetical match up – that’s fine, but if it were to give an overall view of how the vote may go – it was far off the mark. Other choices, could have included Rand Paul, the Senator from Kentucky – who one would hazard to guess would do well across a broad spectrum of voters – as well as anyone who has an idea and not a permanent place in D.C.
Yes, Brown could win New Hampshire easily, he’s new to New Hampshire (sort of), he had a get along and get my way approach to legislation in his short time in the Senate, and he got things done (which message failed to get across with all that screeching about Billionaires, and ads suggesting that ok, he did his job, but he just might vote Republican. In Massachusetts, that’s pretty much all one used to need.
Notice the past tense.
Therefore watching races across the country, look to the underdog –the one candidate that is not politically savvy in the Congressional districts, especially during the primary season. This time around, one thinks it might not be scads of cash that’s going to make or break an election (although it does help) it might just be the people who decide – enough is enough.