Monday, November 25, 2013

2014 – Balance of Power in the Senate Hangs on Mistake of Democrats End to Minority Filibusters, and the Affordable Health Care Act, formerly known as Obamacare.

One does not even know the players in the 2016 Presidential stakes, however, there are the “maybes” that are being touted, yet it is a long way off. What is of import, perhaps more so than the 2016 elections, are the 2014 midterms, which will determine what power the political parties wield, and the power of the President. There have been a few errors recently that have set in motion the possibility for a serious route for the Democrats in 2014, and it is of their own doing.

The first was the disastrous rollout of Obamacare, the website dysfunction alone was not that big of a deal, it was the cancelled policies (with more to come) and the President insisting, time and again, individuals could keep their plans, he finally offered half an apology, and suggested that those who lost their plans, were paying more, or could no longer afford insurance, were getting better plans in the long run. What this did was assure the American people that trust in Obama was akin to trusting the wind – he’s lost much in the polls.

This, of course, with a less popular and floundering President, an angry and annoyed opposition party (over the Reid use of the Nuclear option to end all debates in the senate), will not necessarily affect the President (other than his legacy) but it will affect those Democrats running for reelection in 2014. The die has been cast, and it is only up to Republican’s or Independents to lose, rather than win those seats that a child could steal at this point.

An article in the Boston Globe suggests that donors to the Democrats, and specifically the fundraiser in Chief Obama, are starting to have grave doubts about investing in campaigns that stand no chance of winning. That, coming from one of the media cheerleaders, is telling. This is regardless of the fact that a “Hail Mary’ of delaying the enrollment until 2015 put into place this weekend and designed to “save” Democrats in Danger of losing the house, in all probability won’t matter a bit.

Those who have had any experience with the program at all are not thrilled and the majority of the public wants the mandate gone. – Delay or not wont’ help. The bigger problem is the Reid end of the 225 year Senate Filibuster in order to place more power in the hands of the controlling party. Of course, that’s a short term move. When the Republican’s suggested that they might opt to do the same in 2005, the Democrats were mightily opposed, as the editorial in the Dallas Morning News suggests that move will come back to haunt them – sooner than later.

An interesting take on the move by Reid can be found at Bloomberg news, written by Megan McArdle , who writes that Reid invoked the Nuclear Option out of desperation, in other words, Reid knew that in 2014 there would be a turn in fortunes for the Republican’s and/or Independents, and that the Democrats would most certainly loose the Senate, and at present it appears the House will remain in the hands of the Republicans. The reasoning is simple, Reid, in making this move, was helping the President get as much as he could in the remaining time – such as judicial appointments.

Either that or Reid is well aware of what has taken place in the special elections, and in the smaller local races across the nation – Democrats are poison, and more lost than won, down to the City Council. When that occurs, and the distrusts in Washington, especially for incumbents are as toxic as it is now, those in power should be as non-toxic as possible. One might also suggest that those Republicans’ who are feeling rather confident should rethink their positions, as they also could become a former Senator or Congressional Representative on the turn of a dime. That is not to suggest someone would choose a Democrat over a Republican, rather “other” than the standard Party.

What should be most interesting in the coming months will be Gallup’s Presidential approval by State, should it drop to more dangerous levels, mimicking his overall drop in approve (under 40), then those Democrats up for reelection might want to distance themselves from the President, in much the same way that the Republicans did with Bush in 2006 – although, one might recall, that did little good whatsoever.

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