Monday, December 03, 2012

2016 Speculation: Palin, Cruz, Clinton, Bush, Warren, and the Race to the top.

Sixteen of the potential GOP 2016 Candidates imagined by Politico - image

The 2016 Presidential election may seem as if it is too far in the future for speculation to begin as to who will run in both parties, and to whom the two major political parties will “anoint” as the eventual winner, regardless of primaries. The speculation began before the first votes were cast in the 2012 election, as President Obama, as was the case with Bill Clinton and George Bush, will not be eligible to run for a third term (regardless of the rumors to the contrary regarding President Obama). Generally speaking those who appear in the early lists generally don’t throw their hats in the ring when it comes down to the wire (see Palin, Huckabee, and Jindel for example in 2011-2012), but for giggles, the early list:

From Politico: : Bobby Jindel (R-Governor of Louisiana) , John Kasich (R-Governor of Ohio), Bob McDonnell (R-Governor of Virginia), Martin O’Malley (D-Governor of MD), Vice President Joe Biden (D) Gov. Rick Perry (R-Governor of Texas) Mark Warner (D-Senator from Va.), Rick Santorum (R-2012 GOP Candidate), Rick Scott (R-Governor of Fl.), Jan Brewer (R-Governor of AZ),Scott Walker (R-Governor of Wisconsin, Susanna Martinez, (R-Governor of New Mexico) Hillary Clinton (D) and Andrew Cuomo (D-Governor of NY), Brian Schweitzer (D-Governor of Montana)(Washington Post), Ted Cruz (R-Senator TX) (Fox News), Sarah Palin (R)(Baltimore Sun), Jeb Bush (R), Marc Rubio (R-Senator FL), Rand Paul (R-KY), Bob Portman (R- Senator Ohio), Kelly Ayotte (R-Senate NH) (The Tacoma News Tribune) Mike Pence (R-Governor Indiana), Paul Ryan (R-Congress (WI), Brian Sandoval (R- Governor of NV), John Thune (R-Senate SD), Michelle Bachman (R-Congress MN), Chris Christie (R-Governor of NJ)(Politico), Julian Castro (D-Mayor of San Antonio) (USA Today), Newt Gingrich (R) (Politico) ,Elizabeth Warren (D-MA Senate)(Boston Magazine) - That’s the list for now.

If one were to consider that the GOP has a habit of nominating a candidate (or more to the point, appearing to push a candidate that has lost in a previous election (See John McCain, Bob Dole, Mitt Romney), then logic would dictate that the most likely of the bunch would be Rick Santorum or Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich), however, there’s Jeb Bush in the ring, so one may bet they’ll go the way of the dynasty. (Also consider that neither of the aforementioned would fit the GOP moderate mold.)

On the Democrat side, Hillary Clinton is already ahead in the buzz, however, the Democrats are going to need a hook, and they are going to focus, as they did in 2006-2008, on a little known woman, with little experience and very little national exposure – that’s Elizabeth Warren, darling of the Progressives.

That doesn’t stop the press from seeing a matchup between two political dynasties in a Bush vs. Clinton 2016 match-up(CNN).

What is interesting to this feminist is the fact that there are so many woman and much speculation as to 2016 Presidential runs on the GOP side: Bachman, Palin, Ayotte, Martinez, and Brewer, while on the DNC side one has Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren. Of the women listed, one can see Palin, Brewer, and Martinez going the distance (basing this on experience as Governors and having as far as having a grassroots base in place the tow at the top would be Brewer and Palin). However, to have the party that generally get’s the women’s vote (silly, $9.00 worth of Birth Control is more important somehow than fiscal sanity – which is contrary to feminism as most women must support themselves and their families, being independent of the male), has only two females that are mentioned, Hillary who would fall into the “owe a Presidency” (if she were in the GOP) column, and Elizabeth Warren – who with zero experience, and one slogan (Billionaires!) will be the most likely nominee and one can see a 2008 Democrat convention all over again (where Clinton would be robbed a second time!).

Names no on the list: Huckabee, Huntsman, and those who have yet to crawl out of the political woodwork.

The bigger question, in the course of the next two years, is will a third party emerge, along with a third party candidate, that will fit the bill enough to give the major parties a run for their money. On the GOP: side, there are several that have Tea Party Connections that are strong enough to carry an independent bid, Palin, Perry, Rand Paul (son of perennial Libertarian-Republican candidate, Ron Paul). There is only on one that would hold an Independent party on the DEM side, and that would be Elizabeth Warren, the Progressive Party (should they decide to go that route, which is highly unlikely). It would be healthy for the nation however, to see the large political parties split, as now there is a schism in both (although that argument is rarely framed), the Progressive Socialists who are driven by Unions, versus, the other “groups” that belong to the Democrats, and on the GOP side, the moderate do anything, say anything to get elected semi-fiscal conservatives, versus the social and fiscal conservatives – who would be either an Independent or Tea Party.

In any event, start watching late night TV in February, for who shows up on Letterman, and Leno, and of course, starts making the rounds of all the talk shows – fundraisers aside, (which is how Politico judges who may or may not throw hats into the ring), it is face time with the public in general that usually is a hint of what is to come.. .and the beat goes on.

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