Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Romney Campaign On the Move, Obama Campaign Shifts Focus in Final Two weeks – Reuters: White House Knew About Libya Attacks in Real Time

Mitt Romney - Presidential - Image:

In the final two weeks of the U.S. Presidential Campaign, the Romney Campaign has seen a positive shift in most battleground states, and is actively campaigning in Colorado (NBC News) (As well as taking the lead in the polls in CO), has not ”ceded Michigan” in the least (CBS News) and has increased the Campaign presence in Wisconsin(Green Bay Press Gazette). Overall Romney has taken the lead, or come into the “margin of error” in most polling nationwide. Politico has suggested that the Obama Campaign has ”shifted to an 11’th hour strategy”, having wasted months trying to paint Romney as something he clearly is not, underestimating Romney is debate performances and the numbers of viewers who had the chance to see Romney as capable and Presidential. In summary: it may be too late to recover. (Politico).

In viewing the Real Clear Politics Electoral college map, Romney stands at 206 projected electoral votes, with the President at 201, and 153 electoral college votes shown as toss-ups, (see map here). however, when looking at states considered a “lock” for each candidate, the President has a “lock” on 10 states that are considered automatically as “safe Democrat”, to Romney’s 13 states, in those that are leaning strongly towards Obama, the count is 5 for the President, and 8 for Mitt Romney. Those that “lean” towards Candidates: Obama 2, Romney, 3 States. Finally, there are the toss-ups; those include 10 states that are allegedly not leaning one way or the other at this time (two weeks before the election). The map is interesting in the fact that all polls for this contest, state by state, are included. Take Pennsylvania for example: Polls results are averaged from all sources, beginning with a public policy poll, taken in January of this year, prior to knowing which candidate might be the eventual Republican nominee - The average gives the nod to the President, with an advantage that is still within the margin of error. Also consider that the majority of polls continue to weigh the 2008 election model, (adding 8% more Democrats than normal based on the prior election) and there is a “built in skew” towards the incumbent.

Going back in to the 1980 election, where pollsters had the race tied between Carter and Ronald Reagan right up to the night of the election, startling everyone when Reagan won all but 4 states, the electoral college and popular vote by a landslide, the public and press looked for answers as to what had happened. The Polling specifically has Reagan losing to Carter in Pennsyvlaina (Reading Eagle, Nov. 2nd, 1980), however, in the end result, the polls were based on the voting trends of the previous general election, which gave Carter an advantage of more Democrats than were actually available – No one saw it coming.

If one were to take those states currently on the Real Clear Map and project based on the last several polls, allowing for an 8 percent weight (or extra) Democrat advantage, in the 153 Electoral College votes shown as “Toss Ups”, Romney wins Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Romney is within the Margin of Error in PA, and the list goes on. When one takes the states, generously giving the President the initial 10 states he shows a “solid Democrat, and includes those that are polling solid, there would be a Romney win that is nothing near “close” in reality. One might think that Gallup, having been burnt in the 1980 election along with all other pollsters, has a reason for showing two scenarios: one with registered voters showing a slim margin between the two contenders, and then a “likely voters” model, where Mitt Romney is currently showing a margin of 50 to 46. One might conclude based on these models that Romney is the inevitable President Elect.

To add more fuel to the fire, Reuters has reported that based on newly obtained emails, the White House (President Obama’s situation room), the State Department, etc.) were aware of what was happening in real time as American’s were murdered by Terrorists in Benghazi. There were zero mentions of a movie; however that is all the public heard for several days. Apparently having a major foreign policy problem this close to an election, was not “optimal” for the president (Reference to the Presidents’ remarks on a comedy show prior to the debates).

In conclusion, those who say that the race is close, should continue to do so, it will keep Romney on his game, and the President in a constant state of “catch-up” – this Bay Stater cannot help but feel pride in bringing g home the Presidency to Massachusetts, where the first shot was “heard round the world”, and history pervades every corner of the Commonwealth. It is not without some hope that Massachusetts will also lend a helping hand to the Governor, though every conventional model shows this simply will not happen, that would be the icing on the cake. (As was the case in both 1980 and 1984 – Massachusetts was immediately cast into the safe Democrat category and ignored, until the day after the election when it was found that Massachustts had voted for Ronald Reagan.)

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