Monday, September 17, 2012

Scott Brown-- Liz Warren Poll – Warren Leads Brown by 6 Points – Mass. Independents Choose Brown by 22 Points –. Brown Job Approval at 57%?


Elizabeth Warrens full Speech at the DNC Convention in Charlotte - Video WSJ Convention Coverage.

The Springfield Massachusetts Republican commissioned the most recent poll on the Brown-Warren Senate race – Warren is up by 6 points over Brown in this particular poll, which was taken over a rolling period and has a margin of error of plus/minus 4.2 (or a 95% confidence in the results).

According to the polls Marginals (locaed here at wne.edu), the makeup of the poll of 444 responders Included 163 Democrats, 61 Republicans and 217 Independents (or in Massachusetts, Unenrolled). The Secretary of State’s 2010 statistics on voter registration show: 4,190,907 total registered voters, of which 36.48% are Democrats, 11.33% Republican, .38% Libertarian and 51.61% Unenrolled (or Independent), .2% are “other”. Brown bested challenger Martha Coakley in the 2009 special election by 52 to 47%, in an election where 53% of the State’s Registered voters turned out.(massvotecount.com)

Using the model of the Marginal’s for the latest WNE poll, 36.7% Democrats were sampled, 13.7% Republican and 48.8% Independent, a fairly representative model, with a plus 2 and minus 2 polled between the Republican and Independents polled.
Of course, what’s behind the numbers if the geographic data and the undecided’s, with Brown losing Western Mass, which includes the Democrat Strongholds of Springfield, Northampton, Amherst, and most points west, as well as Boston Proper, while Warren loses Central Mass and the North and South Shore. Undecided in this race: 5% Democrats, 6% Republican and 9% Independents.

That same poll has Brown’s job approval rating in Congress (The Senate) is strong at 57% of all respondents, broken out by Gender: 53% of Women approval, and 62% men – which begs the question…??? – Until one looks at the regional breakdown. Western Massachusetts 82 respondents, central MA 55, North and South Shore 136 and Boston/Suburbs at 171, compared to voter registration statistics, Western Mass has the fewest registered voters in the state, by a margin of 2 to 1 to over Western MA (Voter Registration Statistics), therefore, what’s in a poll is just that. Over sampling of an area that is more sympathetic to one political party over another, while showing Brown with stellar Favorability and Job Performance (losing both in Western MA), somehow losing to a Little Known, Harvard Professor by 2 points (adjusted for the margin of error.)

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