Romney, Gingrich and Paul at a debate, the Debate will be the national Ad that makes or breaks the General Election Race - image: Huffington Post
The full New GOP Hampshire Primary Results are in at the New Hampshire Union Leader, placing first was Mitt Romney taking over one in two votes casts in the Granite State, where he has campaign since 2006. Romney was expected to win New Hampshire, along with Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman who had strong campaigns on the ground for extended periods of time. Ron Paul came in a decisive second with 48,000 plus votes, followed by Jon Huntsman at 35,000 (approximate) and Newt Gingrich 4th, besting Rick Santorum by fewer than 100 votes, Rick Perry, who had not set foot in the state, with the exception of the debates, came in 6th.
The big story was Ron Paul’s strong showing – although Paul was not physically present in the state for the same amount of time that Jon Huntsman and Mitt Romney (by virtue of having one of his homes there), were, it was his massive organization that brought the strong second place finish to the Paul Campaign. CNN (who had the best comprehensive and unbiased coverage of this debate), offered several bells and whistles for political junkies, including a focus group from South Carolina that judged each candidates speech, allowing viewers to watch a “line” of approval or disapproval, separated by gender, as the candidates each gave their post primary results speech, along with demographics as to how well each candidate did among specific voter groups. Paul, who did not gender great enthusiasm, but respectable enthusiasm from the focus group, also attracts the highest percentage of independent voters, which would be a large plus in a general election. Romney’s speech was spot on, more meat than policy; however, he cannot garner the enthusiasm that projects any charisma whatsoever, coming off more as flat and more boring that Rick Santorum’s sweater vest. The Focus Groups dial moved erratically up and down as he was speaking. It was anticipated that Romney would win New Hampshire, he had placed second in 2008, against John McCain, and therefore, it was the 2nd, 3rd and 4th placements that were most interesting.
Jon Huntsman, while giving his speech, basically “flat-lined” with the focus group – garnering almost zero enthusiasm with those South Carolinians who were watching the post debate speakers, while the greatest enthusiasm came for Newt Gingrich, who spoke after Santorum (who also did not do well with the focus group) - Gingrich knows where his territory lay, and it was never in Iowa or New Hampshire.
Of note, in Romney’s speech he not only attacked the President (as he has all along) but also those rivals who he characterized as “desperate Republican’s”, specifically targeting Gingrich for running ads against Romney. To set the record straight from a Massachusetts point of view: (Read Romney’s Super PAC goes in for the Kill) Romney’s Super Pac is a large part of his campaign, and under the PAC a destroy Newt Gingrich approach was taken in Iowa and it worked. The ads were not overly factual however, very effective as Gingrich took a higher road, and responded only after the Caucus was over.
Once the group of candidates were headed to New Hampshire, the gloves came off, and Gingrich began to take a different tactic – as well as having a Super Pac of his own that began to target Romney – As Romney was the favorite in New Hampshire and with the beltway pundits, which now include, of all people, Rush Limbaugh, (A startling revelation to understand that Rush Limbaugh is not an independent right ring conservative, rather a cheerleader for the party dogma - thus giving Hilary Clinton points for being right in part- it was not a vast right wing conspiracy, it was just the GOP learning that the airwaves were very effective.) Gingrich hit a populist tone going into New Hampshire, critical of Romney’s tenure at Bain Capital, and how these types of leverage buyout groups work. This may “sound like a Democrat” to Romany fan, but it is a simple fact that in some instances, corporations raid other corporations for the money, and leave human capital in shambles. This is not an issue for Democrats alone, and one can bet the house that the Obama campaign will focus on Bain and the personal disasters the group caused – they merely need to pull out the old Ted Kennedy 1994 Senate Campaign ads, to do just that.
That is Romney’s baggage, that and his record on taxes, along with his record of no job creation in MA, and no one knows what was released when the Attorney General of Massachusetts, gave full access to Romney’s sealed gubernatorial papers. Romney tried hard to block that action but failed. One has to understand that Galvin would give that information gladly to the first Democrat operative that came calling. The problem with Romney in taking the fight to Obama is that he does have baggage, just like Gingrich, but his baggage spans from 1990 to 2008, while Gingrich’s record is up for review from the 1990’s. This battle will continue in South Carolina, where it should get interesting. The fact that some pundits are noting that Gingrich’s sole purpose in the camping is to stop Romney have been drinking the GOP Kool-Aid, Gingrich is in the campaign, like Santorum, Like Perry, like Paul and like Huntsman because it is clearly evident those candidates feel they were called to run. In the case of Romney, one wonders if he is there to serve his ego or the nation.
It is evident this blog is not a huge fan of Romney, but one must consider that this blog is generated from Massachusetts, and by a Conservative Moderate, who leans both right and left at times, depending upon the issue. As a resident under Romney, it was evident he balanced the budget on the backs of the taxpayers, instituted social programs that were anathema to anyone who has an ounce of Conservatism in them, and the only thing that one positive that one can remember is the fact that he refused to give state security to an Al Queda sympathizer who was speaking at Harvard.
Therefore, one understands, within the state, the extreme moderate that makes Romney the perfect John McCain. Does the GOP really want John McCain’s doppelganger to head the ticket? Possibly, they are more interested in taking back the senate that actually taking the White House and Romney fits that bill to a tee.
As the candidates head to South Carolina which is truly the gateway to the Presidency, on January 21st (or in 9 days from now) it will become apparent which of the candidates will remain standing through Super Tuesday. Romney, who placed 4th in the Carolina’s in 2008 with 15% of the vote, the big winners were Mike Huckabee and John McCain who placed 2nd and first respectively. The candidate the pulls out of South Carolina in the lead, has predicatively become the Party’s nominee, which is why those who finished in 2nd through 4th in the first two contests out of 50, are not overly concerned at this point. That may or may not change in 9 days, however, it is doubtful that certain candidates will be able to carry forward going into South Carolina, where they may lack organization in the Palmetto State, chief among them is Rick Santorum, who rose swiftly in Iowa, and expected a better showing in New Hampshire.
Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry will be the two to watch going into that particular state, given the fact that they have invested in the Carolinas, and have southern roots. The Paul campaign will most likely focus on more eastern/western states where they can, in all seriousness, do well enough to take this race to the Convention. It’s still anyone’s game, despite the drumbeat. With all due respect to Mitt Romney, who one can be sure is a very smart guy, and one who is patriotic, offers nothing concrete in a comparative way to the President, and, in addition, appears to take great umbrage at criticism, coupled with lackluster debates performances, he would be the weakest of the candidates, besides Jon Huntsman to put up against the President. In addition, a strong social conservative, might also be in the same boat. This leaves few valid choices, chief among them the former Speaker of the House.
It will be the individual that the voter’s trust in this election, more than any other factor, despite the polls and despite the pundits, that will win the day, as to who that individual may be – no-one knows at this point, with only two small contests, although titled as the “first”, past, it is far too early to crown a front-runner in terms of the entire election. Once the dust settles on Super Tuesday (March 6th), then the front-runner (or front-runners as the case may be) will be glaringly apparent.
Article of note from Politico: ”Newt Gingrich leaves New Hampshire on high note, despite primary loss”
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