In the latest poll coming from Suffolk, released the 6th of January – a daily poll taken for the past seven days shows that Romney has a large lead of 40%, with the nearest challenger, Ron Paul at 17%, the balance - Rick Santorum at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 9%, Huntsman at 8% and Rick Perry at 1%. However, perhaps the bigger story is the fact that 2% are very likely to change their minds, 30% are somewhat likely to change their minds, and 2% are undecided – leaving 67% currently solid behind their candidate. The Marginals are here at www.suffolk.edu, with a graphic below.
(click on image to enlarge)
Therefore, between two televised debates this weekend, and the candidates running television ads in the Granite State, one may find that any combination of the above gaining or losing grounds in the final days leading to Tuesday. Should, for example, should those that are undecided or may change their mind, turn their vote to another candidate, Romney’s lead goes to 27% in this poll, still respectable, but with a margin of error (not noted on the marginal, assume generous) 3%, that puts this race in range for one of the other candidates. (Note: as prior polling and competing polls suggest that other candidates range in support.)
Additionally, one must look at the University of New Hampshire poll very closely, as this is the same polling institute that gave Martha Coakley a 15 point led over Scott Brown in the Massachusetts special election of 2009, the weekend prior to the vote. So convinced was the Boston Globe that they had their election eve graphics showing Coakley as the winner. Obviously, off by a 20 point spread, Brown won the election by 5 plus points.
Between the polls and the Beltways constant harping on an established front-runner with only two states having voiced their opinion, one can well imagine that all of the polls, and the results at this point, although of import, are not suggestive of a clear front runner.
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