Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Last Florida Polls – Gingrich Polls Within Reach 45% of Romney Supporters May Jump Ship Romney’s Attack Ads - His Undoing – Again


Romney Constant Attacks on Newt Gingrich May Have Adverse Affect on - Romney -Image from The West Orlando News Online

As Floridian’s go to the polls this morning, a last poll conducted by the Insider Advantage Group showed the gap between Romney and Gingrich closing to a 5 point Romney Lead, there is no margin of error shown on the poll stats provided in PDF from Real Clear Politics.com. What is interesting in the marginals is that the poll reflects the make-up of voters in the state, more so than other polls taken. The biggest gap in “may change one’s mind” leading up to the final days comes from Public Policy Polling, where Romney leads by 9 points, however, and here’s the big if (see page 5 of the PDF from PPP Crosstabs: Committed to the Candidate: Romney, more than any other candidates see support that is willing to go to another candidate (even up to the last day) 45% of Romney voters may jump ship. Although Romney's leading in early balloting, it may be the only area in which he leads when polls begin to close this evening. At this point, and with polls this divisive, it will be difficult to say, at this point, who might win the Florida primary with Gingrich and Romney within 5 points, and variables that suggest Romney has not “sealed the deal” with the voters.

One reason may be his scored each attempt to destroy opponents, to the point where both right and left pundits are coming to the defense of Newt Gingrich – Romney has no problem playing fast and loose with the facts, something he is well known for from the 2008 campaign. In that campaign the negative ads were just almost but not quite as egregious as those used to date in this campaign, and it may well be that he has placed some serious doubts in voters’ minds regarding his stability when it comes to the national race – a candidate that will say or do anything to get elected, regardless of accuracy (mistakes here and there, can be attributed to the exhaustion of the campaign trail, however, Romney is on 24/7, and on Newt Gingrich.

Therefore, he is not taking time to talk about Mitt Romney and he is also not taking shots at Obama, but so over-focused on eliminating his chief competitor that he has lost sight of the “prize”, it is his usual undoing.

Florida may well end up being a Newt Gingrich win by the time the votes are tallied, and if so, it will be a hair breath win, not be a “blowout” for Romney as anticipated but a squeaker which, when all is said and done, will be similar to the Iowa vote – meaning nothing more, nor nothing less for the Romney Campaign. That applies should Romney win, with less of a commanding lead than South Carolina (which is traditionally the state that accurately predicts the nominee, and that state went to Gingrich). Should Romney leave Florida and somehow lose Nevada – then even with a win that would be a psychological blow, especially if Gingrich bests him in a state considered “Safe Romney”.

Of note: Gingrich ads are running in Massachusetts – which is interesting – a state that is a Super Tuesday State, and former home to the one-term Governor Romney.

Video’s below


Sarah Palin Weighs In.

Chris Matthews Weighs In!!

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