The MA2 Congressional Race: Neal Has To Beat Statistics In Order to Best Wesley – Brown won by 27%, Anti-Incumbent Runs High In MA.

Tom Wesley, the Republican Candidate running against Richard Neal, is not a “career politician”, rather a “career citizen” - a message that may give him extra points in Massachusetts this mid-term. An article with poll released by the Boston Globe 10-24-10, in conjunction with the infamous University of New Hampshire (see Coakley plus 15 a week prior to the 10-19-10 election), suggests that:

“In another sign of strong anti-incumbent sentiment, 49 percent of respondents said that, overall, they want to see a new crop of leaders in Massachusetts and in Washington. Only 28 percent said they trust current officeholders.”

Ironically, statistics from the Secretary of State’s office on total voter enrollment by party, analyzed against the returns from the January 19th Special election, show that in the Hampden 2nd, Brown beat Coakley by 27%. Additionally, at that time, the race was not based on besting an incumbent, rather a referendum on Universal Health Care.

A great deal has changed between January and October, specifically continued high unemployment, higher deficits, and a parcel of legislation that was generally unpopular with the electorate. The fact that Richard Neal voted 98% of the time with Nancy Pelosi does not help the Congressman. Additionally, Neal’s latest ads have gone negative, a sure sign of trouble.

A recent mailing to constituents, accusing Tom Wesley of outsourcing jobs, (see Wesley Statement Outsourcing the Facts here,,,) smacks of desperation on the part of the Neal campaign. The fact that Neal is in a district that is not particularly friendly to Democrats seeking Federal Offices as of late, and faced with an unusually high percentage of anti-incumbency fever, even in MA, bodes quite well for one Tom Wesley. In the end, it will be who has the best ground game that will tell the tale. Additionally, although not a national race with the attention Scott Brown received but not a statewide race with a great deal of ground to cover, Wesley, running a good ground game has a clear opportunity, statistically speaking. In this district, a Brown 27% victory is significant – if Wesley has harnessed half of the quiet enthusiasm that was seen in this district during the Brown campaign, then he will, indeed retire Neal with no need for a recount. Neal, on his part, must be aware of the statistics, and although his campaign denied there was any “internal polling”, anonymous sources (allegedly inside the Neal campaign and their pollster) indicated that Neal was down by a figure not unlike the outcome of the Brown Coakley matchup.

Should that be the case, then the Wesley ground game running now until the 2nd, will be have the result of being one of those races on the east coast, Which White House Advisor, David Axelrod, (see article here categorized as one of those surprises no one sees coming.

A summary of statistics in a spreadsheet (click to enlarge) shows the town by town analysis return of votes for the MA2 District.