MA2 2010 Update – Polling on the Neal Wesley Race – Contradictions

In a recent video clip on Springfield, MA CBS3, regarding a surge in GOP registration in Massachusetts among Democrats, Congressman Richard Neal, when asked about polls, stated: “I’ve never succumbed to the temptation to interpret polling data until the day after the election”. That, in response to the suggestion that polling data “across the country” favored a GOP upset.

The question of polling by either campaign in the MA2 however appears to be somewhat of a mystery. The New York Times website, considers the MA2 race, “Solid Democrat” based on what the Times lead-in on each of the nations House races, states is “polling, expert forecasts, fundraising, past election returns and other indicators,” in order to predict the outcome of each race. It is more than likely that this race has been rated, like all nine of the Massachusetts house races, by “past election returns”).

In response to an inquiry from this blog after the September 14th primary regarding contacts from sources indicating an internal poll suggested that the Neal campaign was in serious trouble, both the Wesley campaign and Neal campaign denied any internal polling was taking place. However, an article found in the Worcester Telegram (which “heartily” endorsed Tom Wesley for the MA2 Congressional Seat” noted: “Mr. Neal, who said a poll taken months ago indicated he was doing fine, once again said he doesn't discuss campaign strategy.”

Contacted once again October 27th, by the same source, this blog was given the following alleged results from the Neal internal:
On Mr. Neal’s performance, based on likely voters (unenrolled only) approval:
Hampden County: 24% Worcester County: 23%

Additionally, it was implied that the results were consonant with the inclination to vote for Congressman Neal in the upcoming election. The sample of voters was not released, but again indicated it was consistent with other polls with 500 participants, and a margin of error of plus/minus 5%. The individual noted that they were concerned about releasing the marginal’s out of fear of losing their position with the firm.

Understanding that one might be inclined to take this information with a grain of salt, (with the calls coming from outside of the district) the remark regarding polling from the 22 year incumbent, Neal, when pressed on the fact that “hundreds if not thousands” of Democrats were switching party affiliation in the district, by CBS3 (see video with this link) appeared less confident than the earlier remark to the Telegram.

On the current state of the race, noting again, that no internal polling had taken place: Tim Bonin, Wesley Campaign Manager noted: "We feel confident that the moment is right for sending a former Navy pilot and career citizen to Congress."

If the source is legitimate, then the outcome of the MA2Congressional race would be interestingly enough, consistent with the outcome of the percentages projected by the New York Times, however, the projected winner of the race would be reversed.

An extreme note of caution is in order, specifically because when races are hotly contested, one has to be leary of sources that may intend to make the opposition feel “too comfortable” (goes to conacting a conservative blog that has an obvious interest in the race)- that said, going into the final days of the election, one can rest assured that neither campaign will be taking anything for granted.

On campaign “get out the vote” efforts: What is surprising is that Neal, who has significant cash on hand in order to blanket the district with advertising, ran television advertising in the Eastern Portion of the district only, and radio only in the Western portion. He has primarily kept a low profile, agreeing only to two debates: one on Public Television (lowest ranked in the market), and a “pay to attend debate in the Eastern Portion of the district, held at the Milford Chamber of Commerce. As far as focus, Neal has stayed steady on the issues of Social Security and monies he has brought into the district (pork) for the entire length of the campaign. In the advertising spots, he notes he’s running for Congress, but does not allude to any competition, which alerts the viewer or listener to the fact that someone is, indeed running against Neal, at which point the individual turns to Google. Ironically, Neal is, in effect, advertising for the Wesley campaign. Additionally, Neal’s campaign, late start on advertising and rallying the “troops” is reminiscent of the manner employed by the Coakley campaign, sans the overtly negative advertising. The late start and the almost “taking the district for granted” effort, that validates the comparison.

Alternately the Wesley campaign has, to date, run a grassroots campaign, focusing on both the east and west sections of the district. Advertising has been in the form of direct mail, literature drops to all registered voters in the district (regardless of party), phone banking, and standouts. The media, with the exception of the Western district Press, has highlighted the race going into the last few weeks of the campaign. With the NBC affiliate holding a debate with Wesley and Neal, one which Neal declined to attend. Unconfirmed, that the Wesley campaign will also be doing radio and or television advertising in the final days leading up to the election. The focus of the Wesley campaign has been on job growth, homeland security, education and health care reform (the repeal and restructuring of the current legislation)


The outcome will, of course, boil down to which campaign has the best get out the vote effort and ground game, and if those unenrolled do break for Wesley by 76%, (with Republicans and Democrats both voting at 100% for Wesley and Neal respectively - generous) then using voter registration statistics from 2008, minus projected turnout of 30%, The vote would (conservatively) break as follows:

Independents......65224......49570......15654
Republicans........16227......16227.......0
Democrats..........45950...................45950
Total.................127401.......65797......61604
......................................Wesley........ Neal

Note: This is conjecture only, it is imperative that anyone who has an interest in the race, and in a particular candidate to get out and vote on Nov. 2.