Public Service Message – Tea Party Express Rally – Comes to Hartford, CT, September 11

Tea Party Express Rally, Sacramento, CA - image: matthewwarrington.wordpress

The Tea Party Express will be making a stop in Hartford, CT on September 11th, prior to their March on Washington DC, September 12th. Hartford is easily accessible from both Western and Central Massachusetts, for more information visit: Tea Party Express.org.
Those attending past events include people from all political party affiliations; the basic premise of the organization and those attending is to bring attention to the U.S. Constitution and the fact that it may not be currently followed to the letter. It is also a reminder to politician’s that they hold these positions, simply because the people hired them – the message – they can be fired as well.
It should be interesting to see media coverage (if any) of the event taking place, in Hartford (by local media), as well as the large event in Washington DC on the 12th.

2010 Congressional Race Analysis - Barney Frank (D-MA) – Sending Campaign Letters to 4th District, Early Polling Taking Place – Is Frank in Trouble?

Is the Massachsuetts 4th Trending Independnet? Bad News for Incumbants - Image: nationalatlas

Several calls and emails from 4th district Republicans and Independents, have noted that Barney Frank is sending campaign emails for 2010, asking for support for re-election to Congress. (Mailers include the usual Republican’s caused the financial crisis, etc.) Those that were contacted via the mail, were surprised, as it was the first time in recent memory that Frank had actually sent out campaign literature – to non-Democrats. The addition of pollsters calling throughout the 4th rating Frank’s overall performance, is in itself interesting, as most high-profile U.S. Congressional members (Massachusetts), do not feel the need to poll. It is a “given” that their election is in “the bag”.

For example, one can count on U.S. Rep. Richard Neal to send a standard mailer to all registered voters in the Hampden 2nd, approximately 2 to 3 months prior to any election, touting his accomplishments and adding in the usual party rhetoric re: the Republican Party will take away social security, etc. (the script never changes).

Therefore, the question arises - are the polls at Frank’s behest, or is there a growing interest in the 4th district race? It has also been suggested that there have been internal polls performed on behalf of the Sholley campaign in the 4th , which, again, is not unusual in races that draw a good deal of national interest. As a fairly extensive on-line search has revealed no data on any polling to date, one can imagine that these polls are either internal, or currently embargoed (pollsters do not release polls requested until a specific date). Theoretically, if the polls were conducted by Frank’s campaign, logic dictates that the ensuring letters from his 2010 Congressional Campaign, to registered voters, regardless of party, this early in the game, may signal real “trouble in River City” (old pool hall analogy), for Frank in 2010. At the very least, what this tells those in the 4th district, as well as those interested in the career of Congressman Frank, he does indeed intend to run for his seat, yet again.

Looking at polls nationwide, in states that have trended Democrat for decades, one may also understand why Frank may feel the need to get a jump on the political game. From Real Clear Politics (an average of all polls taken in any given day/month) recent 2009 polling: Governor Races: New Jersey, Corzine (D), is trailing Christi (R) by 13 points and Republican’s lead in Virginia by 8 points. In 2010 races, Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid (D), is polling behind two Republican challengers, while in Pennsylvania, Spector (D), either leads Toomey (R) by 8, or is behind by 4, again depending upon the pollster. In Massachusetts, Democrat Governor Deval Patrick, is being bested by Christi Mihos (R) by 5 points, and barely ahead of Charlie Baker (plus one), another Republican challenger. In New York, should Republican Giuliani enter the race, Patterson is bested by 23 points. At the moment, in a primary, Paterson is being behind Democrat Cuomo, Florida Governor: polling Republican, Florida Senate, polling Republican, Illinois Senate polling Republican, California Boxer ahead of Fiorina (Republican, not yet declared), by a mere 4 points. The trend continues: Dodd in Connecticut in behind Republican Challenger Simmons by 8 points, Louisiana polling Republican.

The biggest factor among Registered Voters is the increase in the number of those identifying themselves as unenrolled, Gallup suggests that a shift away from the Democrat Party, and independents increased to 15% of the voting bloc. Additionally, Rasmussen polling suggests that 57 percent of the nation would prefer to pick their congressional representative from a phone book. In other words, the increase in unenrolled, the trend towards Republican’s in 2009 and 2010 congressional races, and the overall dissatisfaction with congress in general, will see incumbents, some of whom have held seats for decades, on the endangered species list. The question now remains, in a heavily independent district, such as the Massachusetts 4th, has the attitude to the progressive Democrat movement changed?

Absolutely.

The planned, 9-12 (Tea Party), march on Washington is reported to have drawn a minimum of 7 buses from Worcester, MA alone, with similar numbers of buses leaving from Fall River and New Bedford to join in a March on Washington to protest several of the administration’s policies. Therefore, the group, made up of Independents (primarily), Republicans and yes, Democrats, are in direct opposition to policies that Congressman Frank endorses (as well as those Democrats previously noted in polls) – and hey now reside in his district.
Frank’s next round of television commercials will undoubtedly include and blame the “Republican Attack Machine”, or “Bill O’Reilly”, but the truth is that the districts makeup has changed, and the attitude of the populace, even in Massachusetts, has shifted – right. Regardless of the outcome (this is Massachusetts after all,) Frank’s unprecedented early jump into campaign mode, signals trouble.

Obama Address to Public School Children – Parents Growing Opposition Cause Schools to React – It’s a Matter of Public Trust.

School districtsacross the nation have been fielding calls from parents who would prefer their children not view the President’s speech next week. According to Politico’s article, the problem lies in the fact that “Conservative” parents feel that they would prefer to vet the speech prior to allowing their children to participate.

First, it is unprecedented that the President of the United State’s would make a speech for the entire United States Public School System. Barack Obama has, to date, failed to instill trust in the general public as regards to financial, health and welfare and foreign policy issues – therefore, it is no wonder that parents who are not politically left of center might be a bit suspicious of this type of address; viewing it more as political indoctrination rather than a simple “message from the President”.

Perhaps a better, and less costly to the taxpayers, method would have been to send a memo to public school teachers encouraging their students to watch the Presidents address before Congress, while taking this opportunity to teach a bit of civics, and include the opposition response/remarks at the end, for perspective. Students would then be able to discuss the speech (message) in class.

The charge is that the President might try to indoctrinate the children (although they are already indoctrinated as most educators are of a liberal mindset and teach politics in every class, regardless of subject or age – ask a child, any child.) and the most recent “evidence” came from Utah. The Salt Lake Tribune recently reported on parents who were upset because a video was shown to students in the public school system in Framingham. The video, featuring the President and several A and B List Celebrities, had the following theme: “Service to Obama, as the President”, rather than Service to the Country. It goes without saying that if this video were shown in Salt Lake, it is also being shown in municipalities and towns across the nation, with children most likely not talking with parents about the content. (Video available with SLTribune Article and On You-Tube). This, followed by an address to the nations children by the President, would appear to be – indoctrination of sorts, asking American Children to offer allegiance to a person, not to the nation (see John F. Kennedy: “Ask not what your country can do for you….”).

To be fair, the video will be broadcast on C-Span, which would allow the parent to tape, and or watch the speech, and discuss any and all aspects with their children.

John Kerry’s “Managed” Health Care Town Hall – Tightly Controlled with Advocacy Groups & Unions Dominating Attendance.

Senator John Kerry, (D-MA), held a town hall meeting in Somerville, MA yesterday, which was surprisingly well attended – by supporters of Health Care Reform. The event, which was pushed by Organizing for America (MyBarackObama.com), gave Kerry a platform to pontificate that he would be carrying the torch for the late Ted Kennedy dream of Universal Health Care (public option), a move that Harry Reid can appreciate.

The interesting aspect of this particular pro-health reform event, were the attendees: according to the Boston Globe: “Spectators arrived early, many carrying pro-health care overhaul signs, which were prohibited inside for security reasons. Advocacy groups on hand included the Service Employees International Union, the Massachusetts Nurses Association, and Mass-Care, a state group pushing for a single-payer plan. . The question arises: Although the Globe and like-minded press, have heralded this event as a pro-health care rally (one of the first of its kind), it was not the general public in attendance, rather advocacy groups who were urged to get there early and fill the auditorium by the Obama Campaign, - played as throngs of regular folk by the press – will this charade be bought by the American people, most of whom do not support any form of government controlled health program? Unlikely.

For perspective : live blogging of the event by the Mass. DNC (Blue Mass Group)

Yet Another Obama Prime-Time Health Reform Address – Method Has Been Time-Tested – Network Ratings in Peril.

Barack Obamais planning two key addresses next week, one a prime-time address to Congress on Health Care Reform, and the other a mid-day address to the nations public school children (also available on C-Span). The address before Congress, encouraged by Speaker Pelosi, and Majority Leader Reid, will attempt to sell Obama’s Health Care Reform to the public.

The premise of this particular address is to explain to the nation what it is that Obama envisions as Health Care Reform, and understanding that the public option (government run program) may be off the table, may or may not (depending upon those who elect to watch in the first place) aid in his falling poll number. Old adage: familiarity breeds contempt – may apply. Add to that, a public school address, the contents of which will be based on “service” may or may not be similar to a video shown in a Framingham, UT public school. The video talks to students about service, to Obama, not to the public, and is complete with celebrity endorsements. Parents took umbrage at, what amounts to a paid (by tax dollars) political speech, aimed at the next generation. (Video below)

That said, polls will tell, should the President have a successful prime time show, it will be reflected in the polls and should he fail in that endeavor (over-exposure), then it will be interesting to see if the Congress continues to push for a vote on reform, or if the legislation will come off the table completely. (Saved for a more “popular political atmosphere”.)

As New Jersey Goes – So Goes the Nation – Gubernatorial Race: Christi Maintains Poll Leads Despite Best Efforts of Media and DNC - Analysis

John Corzine with Barack Obama, Corzine Trailing Despite Bombs Thrown at Republican Opponent

A report fromPolitico this morning, suggests that despite the best efforts of embattled New Jersey Governor, Democrat Jon Corzine and the general media, Republican challenger, Chris Christie continues to maintain a sizable lead in the polls. The premise of the article, “Christie Holds Lead Despite Bad News”, is that Corzine remains behind, even though several allegedly damaging revelations about Christie have come to light. These include: failing to disclose a loan made in 2007 to a colleague (while employed at the U.S. Attorney’s office in NJ, racking up several parking tickets, and the kicker: talking to Karl Rove about the possibility of running for Governor while still a U.S. attorney. Based on these “crimes and misdemeanors”, Christie is a saint compared to the bevy of issues facing high profile incumbent Democrats, that, although underreported, have made national news. From Chris Dodd’s Mortgage Issues, which, ethics complaints brought in the Senate, have apparently disappeared due to his peers judgment and dismissal, to the former Louisiana Democrat, Congressman William Jefferson of cash in the freezer fame, to a host of characters, most recently, Obama nominees for cabinet positions who had issues of tax returns.

Parking Tickets? Is that all you’ve got?

As the media has excused almost every indiscretion by anyone remotely connected to a particular party of the years; attempting to point a finger for a similar or lesser issue, is not going to fly with John Q. Public – they have become: immune. Additionally, there may be other “bombs” that worked in the past that will no longer hold water with the all-important Independent Voters, chief amongst them in the charge: “Right Wing Republican”. This has developed most recently due to those “Health Care Town Hall Informational Sessions” where average citizens, many of whom are independents, Libertarians, and even Democrats, have been characterized by the administration, high profile members of Congress and the media as “mobs, Republican’s and paid for by Conservative Groups”. Apparently, those who were none of the above began to see the light in respect to the media’s inability to separate itself from news versus personal ideology of the various editors, producers, journalist and anchors.

Therefore, as all politicians, regardless of party, and apparently indiscretions, are now on a level playing field, what on earth will they campaign on? Simple Answer: The issues that are currently favored by the majority of the public, some of which are not in concert with the current Party in Power. Stimulus spending and Government run entities and control come to mind, in a word, the economy and sticking to the U.S. Constitution are leading factors among, amazingly, regular citizens who vote, and will, therefore, dictate how they vote. The politician, regardless of party, (but face it, most often a Conservative Republican or Libertarian), will do well in the 2009 and 2010 gubernatorial, U.S. House or Representative and Senate races.

The Polls: Looking at the data from Real Clear Politics, one finds that out of all 2009 matchups, Republicans are currently leading across the board. In those 2010 matchups being polled, Republican’s lead in early polling, with exceptions being polls conducted by the Daily Kos (no surprise there), and the states of Ohio and New Hampshire and Pennsylvania (current match-ups, including primaries) currently favoring the incumbent or Democrat running. That said, even Liberal Massachusetts, with incumbent Deval Patrick, (advisor and mentor David Axelrod, who is currently the advisor to Barack Obama), the Republican Candidate, Christie Mihos, is leading Patrick in the polls.

Therefore, the age of dismissing indiscretions for one, while playing up the indiscretions of the other, may be at an end – It may now be incumbent upon politicians, regardless of party affiliation and the media, to actually let the voting public know where they actually stand and not make campaign promises, based upon what may be popular, while being either inept or unable to make those promises happen fast enough for the “American Idol” voting block. It’s one thing to be a Rock Star, or run on the coat tails of a Rock Star, but one must realize that in America, Fame is fleeting, and once the bloom if off the proverbial rose, substance is what the voters will demand. If it cannot be delivered, they will go elsewhere, no matter how hard the media pushes, or the ads attack, the public now wants to know where a particular politician stands on issues, and should that politicians not fulfill his or her promised ideology, they will, undoubtedly, be out of a job.

Massachusetts Special Election to Fill Vacant Kennedy Seat Set for 1/19/09 – DNC – Banking on Liberal Massachusetts to Elect a Democrat

Former U.S. District Attorney, Michael Sullivan, mentioned as a possible candidate for Kennedy's Seat- image bostonherald

There is a great deal of speculation regarding Senator Ted Kennedy’s vacant senate seat; specifically who his replacement might be. One constant theme is that the seat will be filled by a Democrat – this is based on several assumptions, the most interesting being the fact that Massachusetts is a Democrat controlled state.

The Commonwealth of Massachusetts, although run almost exclusively by one party, has an interesting make-up when it comes to registered voters. Only 36 percent of the registered voters are designated as Democrat, with the largest percentage (50 plus %) designated as independent (unenrolled). Additionally, according to the latest Zogby Poll, President Obama’s approval rating is now at 42% - as 52% of the nation voted for Obama, one might theorize, that 1 in 8 voters (mostly unenrolled) are shopping elsewhere for their politicians.. Therefore it is not inconceivable that, given a special election, a Republican might take the seat.

Historically, however, the last Republican Senator elected in Massachusetts, was was Edward William Brooke in 1966(incidentally, Brooke's was also the first African-American elected to the Senate “since the reconstruction”.) As the decades passed, Massachusetts voters have chosen several Republican governors, (Weld, Swift and Romney the most recent), yet not one Federal representative has emerged since Brooke.

The Replacements: On the Democrat side, the following names have been bandied about in the press: especially Victoria Kennedy and Joseph Kennedy III – the thought process being that the seat “belongs to the Kennedys”, and that no matter which Kennedy runs, the people of Massachusetts will pull the lever (branding)for any "Kennedy". Other names on the DNC list: Rep. Michael Capuano and Martha Coakley (Attorney General) - of the two Capuano would be in lockstep with the administration, Coakley appears to be more independent minded – similar to a Hillary Clinton.

On the flip side, the Republican potential candidates (thrown in as an afterthought by most media), are former Lieutenant Governor, Kerry Healy, who ran an unsuccessful gubernatorial campaign against Deval Patrick (negative advertising and the Republican Brand led to her demise), and more interesting Michael J. Sullivan, a former U.S. District Attorney who resigned his position on April 9, 2009. At the time, Sullivan took a position with John Ashcroft's Law Firm. Sullivan, has the credentials and name recognition (positive) to prove assumptions false.

Although anyone who is contemplating a run at the seat, has little time in which to prepare (the primary is set for December 9, with the general January 19th. That said, the wild card in Massachusetts will be the independent vote, it would behoove the GOP (which consistently abandons Massachusetts on the false belief that it is a “lost cause” due to the overwhelming majority of Democrats!”)to take note. Should a Republican run, in this climate, one with the credentials and branding of a Sullivan, come out early and run on merit, then all bets may be off. Republican Federal Representatives from the State of Massachusetts are not unlike Hurricane's. They do occur, infrequently, true, but historically certain.