2010 Congressional Race Analysis - Barney Frank (D-MA) – Sending Campaign Letters to 4th District, Early Polling Taking Place – Is Frank in Trouble?

Is the Massachsuetts 4th Trending Independnet? Bad News for Incumbants - Image: nationalatlas

Several calls and emails from 4th district Republicans and Independents, have noted that Barney Frank is sending campaign emails for 2010, asking for support for re-election to Congress. (Mailers include the usual Republican’s caused the financial crisis, etc.) Those that were contacted via the mail, were surprised, as it was the first time in recent memory that Frank had actually sent out campaign literature – to non-Democrats. The addition of pollsters calling throughout the 4th rating Frank’s overall performance, is in itself interesting, as most high-profile U.S. Congressional members (Massachusetts), do not feel the need to poll. It is a “given” that their election is in “the bag”.

For example, one can count on U.S. Rep. Richard Neal to send a standard mailer to all registered voters in the Hampden 2nd, approximately 2 to 3 months prior to any election, touting his accomplishments and adding in the usual party rhetoric re: the Republican Party will take away social security, etc. (the script never changes).

Therefore, the question arises - are the polls at Frank’s behest, or is there a growing interest in the 4th district race? It has also been suggested that there have been internal polls performed on behalf of the Sholley campaign in the 4th , which, again, is not unusual in races that draw a good deal of national interest. As a fairly extensive on-line search has revealed no data on any polling to date, one can imagine that these polls are either internal, or currently embargoed (pollsters do not release polls requested until a specific date). Theoretically, if the polls were conducted by Frank’s campaign, logic dictates that the ensuring letters from his 2010 Congressional Campaign, to registered voters, regardless of party, this early in the game, may signal real “trouble in River City” (old pool hall analogy), for Frank in 2010. At the very least, what this tells those in the 4th district, as well as those interested in the career of Congressman Frank, he does indeed intend to run for his seat, yet again.

Looking at polls nationwide, in states that have trended Democrat for decades, one may also understand why Frank may feel the need to get a jump on the political game. From Real Clear Politics (an average of all polls taken in any given day/month) recent 2009 polling: Governor Races: New Jersey, Corzine (D), is trailing Christi (R) by 13 points and Republican’s lead in Virginia by 8 points. In 2010 races, Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid (D), is polling behind two Republican challengers, while in Pennsylvania, Spector (D), either leads Toomey (R) by 8, or is behind by 4, again depending upon the pollster. In Massachusetts, Democrat Governor Deval Patrick, is being bested by Christi Mihos (R) by 5 points, and barely ahead of Charlie Baker (plus one), another Republican challenger. In New York, should Republican Giuliani enter the race, Patterson is bested by 23 points. At the moment, in a primary, Paterson is being behind Democrat Cuomo, Florida Governor: polling Republican, Florida Senate, polling Republican, Illinois Senate polling Republican, California Boxer ahead of Fiorina (Republican, not yet declared), by a mere 4 points. The trend continues: Dodd in Connecticut in behind Republican Challenger Simmons by 8 points, Louisiana polling Republican.

The biggest factor among Registered Voters is the increase in the number of those identifying themselves as unenrolled, Gallup suggests that a shift away from the Democrat Party, and independents increased to 15% of the voting bloc. Additionally, Rasmussen polling suggests that 57 percent of the nation would prefer to pick their congressional representative from a phone book. In other words, the increase in unenrolled, the trend towards Republican’s in 2009 and 2010 congressional races, and the overall dissatisfaction with congress in general, will see incumbents, some of whom have held seats for decades, on the endangered species list. The question now remains, in a heavily independent district, such as the Massachusetts 4th, has the attitude to the progressive Democrat movement changed?

Absolutely.

The planned, 9-12 (Tea Party), march on Washington is reported to have drawn a minimum of 7 buses from Worcester, MA alone, with similar numbers of buses leaving from Fall River and New Bedford to join in a March on Washington to protest several of the administration’s policies. Therefore, the group, made up of Independents (primarily), Republicans and yes, Democrats, are in direct opposition to policies that Congressman Frank endorses (as well as those Democrats previously noted in polls) – and hey now reside in his district.
Frank’s next round of television commercials will undoubtedly include and blame the “Republican Attack Machine”, or “Bill O’Reilly”, but the truth is that the districts makeup has changed, and the attitude of the populace, even in Massachusetts, has shifted – right. Regardless of the outcome (this is Massachusetts after all,) Frank’s unprecedented early jump into campaign mode, signals trouble.