Breaking: 2012 Iowa Caucus Des Moines Register Poll - 41% Still Undecided! Romney Paul Top Poll

The final polling before the 2012 Iowa Caucus this Tuesday, January 3rd, shows that 41% of the respondents could still be pursuaded to chanage their minds - (Des Moines Iowa Register) - currently Romney tops the field with 24%, Paul in second place:

The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.

However, over the four days the poll shifted, with Santorum pulling into second, Paul into third, and Romney staying at 24%. Gingrich, Perry and Bachman currently are 4th, 5th and 6th respectively. The poll has a large margin of error at plus or minus 5.6% - given the fact that the last few days of polling saw a shift with half of the 302 of the 600 likely voters polled.

In other words, no one has a clear idea of who will win, place or show in Iowa on Tuesday.

Iowa – Polling Varies to Extreme’s – Anyone’s Guess – Ground Game will Prevail – Ron Paul Organizational Strength

Iowa has been at the center of attention with newscasters touting poll after poll suggesting that Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and variations of Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum will be the likely winners of the first 2012 GOP caucus. The latest Insider Advantage poll taken on the 28th of December, shows Paul, Romney and Gingrich in a dead head with Santorum in a statistical 4 way tie within the margin of error. (Marginals PDF hereat Real Clear Politics) A number of polls suggest either a Paul, Romney, Santorum win or any combination one can conceive of those candidates running (with the exception of Huntsman whose focus is now on New Hampshire). It will be the first three placements in Iowa that will count towards any “political capital” going forward to New Hampshire, where Romney is leading in polls, but where, again, one cannot pinpoint, by current polls and the variance that is going to come out in the top tier. It will be the state of South Carolina that will forecast which of these candidates can stay in for the long haul, by the placement of the top two – going forward, the candidate that can hold the South and Midwest on Super Tuesday, will emerge as the front-runner (or front-runners as 2012 appears).

All the Super PAC’s and candidates cash on hand will count towards the battle, in the sense that those left with cash will be able to make those necessary appearances and run advertising in states where they are not known – which is where the crux of the matter lays. With the media 24/7 news cycle it is doubtful that anyone who isn’t living under a rock does not know who is running for the GOP nomination. Even in Massachusetts, the local news is bringing the Republican contest into the first half of the news cast, the focus on Iowa and New Hampshire being so strong, that the affiliates are running national stories on the early contests, including commentary from the local anchors. It appears to be message, message, message and who can appeal across the board to a wide range of voters, including the Democrats who are now considering (and not in a paranoid, Democrat Operative voting for the Republican to spoil the race for a specific candidate, type of way, but in a sincere and selective manner, in which they will, many for the first time, and many for the second time in a matter of 30 years, cross party lines) voting against every political instinct instilled in a Democrat – for a Republican to lead the nation.)

Nothing speaks to this stronger than the marginals of the Insider Advantage Poll, and as a resident of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts (known as the bluest state), a Super Tuesday participant, one cannot help but wonder when those who always cast Massachusetts aside (with the exception of the 2009 special election for the Senate seat, won by Scott Brown) will finally poll the Commonwealth. It is not that Massachusetts would be a deciding factor in any Presidential contest (not withstanding the fact that the state offers 9 electoral votes, which, in a hotly contested race may make the difference), but it would offer a snapshot of the depth of the race, and which of the candidates those Massachusetts Independents (the largest portion of the electorate) were considering for the March 6th contest.

Who resonates, who is the candidate that will capture, not the Republican Party loyalists (otherwise known as the Country Club Republican Set (not unsimilar to those in similar positions in the Democrat Party), but those rank and file members who are making decisions based on the newscasts, the mailers, the candidates that show up in the state, and those that have volunteers in sufficient numbers to knock on doors.

One has to consider who has made appearances, that is likely to go a long way towards additional state and local news, and who has an established ground game. (See Campaign Tracker by the Washington Post – visits to States by Candidate noted in this interactive map). History will also play a factor, if one cannot succeed in the Southern States, one might as well be spitting into the wind, so to speak. Historically, those who have risen to the top of the pile, by virtue of either state wins in caucuses or primaries to win delegates at a convention, or those in a brokered convention, and who cannot, on their own merit, carry the South or the west, will choose a running mate that can – the exception being John McCain, a moderate who chose the conservative Govenor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, to boost the base. Consider the case of Kennedy, who chose Johnson in order to solidify the South, so important it was for that Massachusetts Democrat to have geographic representation in order to secure a win.

Therefore, one must look at strengths and weaknesses, endorsements being what they are, in the eyes of some, specifically those who are less inclined to watch the news more than once in a blue moon, or who pay little attention to the primaries, (this year, perhaps an exception). The GOP endorsements to date (running up to Iowa) have been made in large part to Mitt Romney and those endorsements have been mainly GOP establishment figures, Gingrich has received endorsements from, most recently a noted economics and Michael Reagan, Rick Santorum is being back by former Huckabee campaign personnel and certain evangelical leaders in the state, some of whom have gone so far as to suggest to other candidates that they drop out of the race. Ron Paul – has organization, the scope of which it is doubtful that anyone has bothered to look at with any seriousness – but they should.
Paul has, in the past, had the support of the youth vote (think Occupy Wall Street) but this has changed in the age of the Tea Party (think strict Constitutionalists) and now includes a wide spectrum of ages and individuals who are tired of “business as usual”.

A recent op-ed in the New Hampshire Union Leader by Publisher Joseph W. McQuaid entitled “Ron Paul is truly dangerous” speaks to the rise of the Paul Candidacy and the lack of media attention vis a vis Paul’s national security stance, one which many would conclude, as did Mr. McQuaid, are “dangerous” to the security of the nation. Mr. McQauid also points out that his appeal lays in his “domestic libertarian views” which “are quite attractive to some voters fed up with politics as usual”.

How organized is Paul? Take a look at one of the organizations that is backing Paul, to understand the scope of not only his campaign organization but what amounts to a “super pac” of supporters. The websites for reference are Young Americans for Liberty and the Campaing for Liberty (which boast 600,000 plus members). Granted this may not transform into votes, however, look back at the marginals of the Insider Advantage Poll to understand who is voting in the Iowa Caucus and those states through the end of March that offer proportional delegates to those placing, and open primaries where Independents and Democrats may vote and/or change affiliation to vote in the Republican Primary.

The Poll breakdown is shown below:


Insider Advantage Poll Iowa - click to enlarge

Iowa is of import as well as New Hampshire in measuring the depth of the organization of one Ron Paul versus the lack of grassroots organization of the establishment candidate Mitt Romney, leaving South Carolina and Florida to stop what may become a freight train. Those candidates that garner votes in sufficient numbers that cross party lines are at present: Paul, Gingrich and Bachmann, the three candidates that represent the most “outside of Washington” personas and are able to amass votes from all parties.

Update: Paul Scores in Iowa, Santorum Rises, Gingrich Changes Minds -Raises 9 Million, 1994 Kennedy-Romney Attack ads surface - More

From Politico: “In Iowa, Ron Paul is on time and on message” speaks to the Texas Congressman’s ability to fill a room, on time (literally) and his adherence to his message, anti-war, anti-Fed and pro-Constitution that is managing to attract more than the usual youth vote.

How well is Paul doing in Iowa? Michelle Bachmann’s Iowa campaign chairman just left for the Paul Camp” (Washington Post). Conflicting polls show Paul either leading or tied with Romney as of this past week. That said, in most polls, over 45 % of Iowa caucus goes are still undecided. This one is just about anyone’s game.

Enter Candidate Rick Santorum who has risen in the polls to a third place, the pollster, Public Policy Polling, shows that Santorum has the favorability rating of any candidate in Iowa (Politico). Santorum has been in Iowa from the beginning, he’s practically lived there, and it may just pay off. One might consider that money is the big decider in Iowa – not so: Recall Mitt Romney’s millions against Mike Huckabee’s thousands, and Huckabee’s win in Iowa in 2008. That said, Huckabee was leading in the polls two weeks out from the contest, and although the theme was he could not win due to lack of funds, it was quickly made apparent that “money can’t buy you love” in Iowa.

Newt Gingrich, the candidate with the biggest “target” on his back due to his front runner status which is now reduced due to Romney’s PAC and Paul’s attack ads, along with Bachmann’s robo-call attacks. Gingrich lost that distinction in both Iowa and New Hampshire, but maintains a lead in both Florida and South Carolina (as of this week). In Iowa however, on the ground, he is swaying voters: from the Spencer Daily Reporter: Regarding a town hall style meet and greet one woman got the media’s attention after telling her story, and receiving Gingrich’s answer:

Williams later said she was surprised by Gingrich's compassion, especially after viewing negative ads about him.
"I was truly touched with how kind he was about it ..." she said, with daughters Mollie and Morgan by her side. "Honestly, I thought he might just gloss over my question and he took a moment to let it sink in and then answered it."
Four years ago, Williams supported President Barack Obama and was leaning toward voting for him again, but does not know who to support following Gingrich's response to her questions.
In the closing remarks of his short stump speech, Gingrich extended an invitation to the crowd.
"I will not ask you to be for me because, if you're for me, you'll vote, go home and say, 'I hope he gets the job,'" Gingrich said. "I will ask you to be with me. We need you to be with us for the next four years. ... This is what America has to do if we want to be successful with our children and grandchildren."

In addition, the AP is reporting that Gingrich, over the course of the past three months has raised 9 million in campaign contributions no mean feat when one considers the negative ads. Again, a note of caution on those millions versus thousands and where that may end. Also, on Gingrich nationally, one pundit noted that Newt Gingrich was still doing well outside of Iowa because the rest of the states had not seen the negative advertising, however, one has to understand that every negative ad has been played on every major news outlet in the nation - making it difficult to believe that those living in Florida, South Carolina, Georgia, or Alaska for that matter, have not seen or heard Ron Paul’s or Mitt Romney’s attacks on Gingrich. This lends to the theory that negative ads do not always work as intended.

Speaking of negative advertising, the Romney Camp had better hope they don't work: Red State has uncovered a few ads from the 1994 Romney-Kennedy Campaign, several directly from the Kennedy Campaign and one from the DNC. These ads reference Romney’s platform of “job creation”, the same record he ran on in 2008 and is running on in 2012. The DNC ad shown below never ran, but this is most likely why the Obama Campaign would be set back if another candidate should take the lead - given the fact that they have more opposition research on Romney than anyone. A plus for the Obama campaign: the ad below would be revived, at little to no cost.

Alternately, on the individual mandate: Redstate again, came out with this little ditty on Willard “Mitt” Romney the headline? “TODAY, December 28, 2011, Mitt Romney Calls Obamacare “Conservative”.

Romney continues to defend the Massachusetts model he created (with a little help from Ted Kennedy), the plan which was the model for “Obamacare” and which has those uninsured in Massachusetts scrambling to come up with the cash to pay the Commonwealth for a)not being able to afford one of the three plans offered in the state (four if you count Commonwealth Care, which is not accepting new enrollees (open enrollment only), and is as expensive as the three “private carriers”, b) therefore “assessed a fee” that is equal to the amount one would have paid in premiums!! The money goes to – that’s a question often asked by those paying the Massachusetts equivalent to the IRS, or having their wages garnished in the event they can’t come up with the “fee” on time. There is, to be fair, a provision that allows one who is unemployed, and who’s employer does not offer health insurance (one must work outside the state to take advantage of this), to apply for a “hardship” waiver with the Commonwealth. The fact that the program is the largest portion of the Commonwealth Budget, bypassing Education, is also telling. Conservative – perhaps in its initial concept, whereby those earning more than $75,000 a year having to provide for themselves instead of skipping out on hospital bills. However, as it developed past theory into reality, it would be fair to say that $75,000 in Boston pre-tax is the poverty level. In addition, the lack of competitive programs makes it impossible for those living in the Bay State to buy insurance at a competitive rate – unless the Commonwealth opens the floodgates, and allows individuals to buy across state lines. (They did so with Auto Insurance and there was immediate relief.). Again, the original concept was ok, in theory, however, once put into practice….there are families in the Bay State that are suffering. (One would hazard to guess that if he is the nominee it would be difficult to contrast and compare himself to Obama on that front.)

All in all its a hard driven, dramatic, up and down GOP Contest, one which is on the plus side, getting a great deal of media attention, individual voters are interested (especially former Obama voters), and the roller-coaster of the campaign is nothing new - not as tidy as the GOP would like, but, this may end up being for the best, going down to the wire perhpas with two or three candidates going into the convention. All former bets are off, there's no way of telling at this point in time, who will be up next, who will be down, and who will be out.


DNC Campaign ad from 1994