All the Super PAC’s and candidates cash on hand will count towards the battle, in the sense that those left with cash will be able to make those necessary appearances and run advertising in states where they are not known – which is where the crux of the matter lays. With the media 24/7 news cycle it is doubtful that anyone who isn’t living under a rock does not know who is running for the GOP nomination. Even in Massachusetts, the local news is bringing the Republican contest into the first half of the news cast, the focus on Iowa and New Hampshire being so strong, that the affiliates are running national stories on the early contests, including commentary from the local anchors. It appears to be message, message, message and who can appeal across the board to a wide range of voters, including the Democrats who are now considering (and not in a paranoid, Democrat Operative voting for the Republican to spoil the race for a specific candidate, type of way, but in a sincere and selective manner, in which they will, many for the first time, and many for the second time in a matter of 30 years, cross party lines) voting against every political instinct instilled in a Democrat – for a Republican to lead the nation.)
Nothing speaks to this stronger than the marginals of the Insider Advantage Poll, and as a resident of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts (known as the bluest state), a Super Tuesday participant, one cannot help but wonder when those who always cast Massachusetts aside (with the exception of the 2009 special election for the Senate seat, won by Scott Brown) will finally poll the Commonwealth. It is not that Massachusetts would be a deciding factor in any Presidential contest (not withstanding the fact that the state offers 9 electoral votes, which, in a hotly contested race may make the difference), but it would offer a snapshot of the depth of the race, and which of the candidates those Massachusetts Independents (the largest portion of the electorate) were considering for the March 6th contest.
Who resonates, who is the candidate that will capture, not the Republican Party loyalists (otherwise known as the Country Club Republican Set (not unsimilar to those in similar positions in the Democrat Party), but those rank and file members who are making decisions based on the newscasts, the mailers, the candidates that show up in the state, and those that have volunteers in sufficient numbers to knock on doors.
One has to consider who has made appearances, that is likely to go a long way towards additional state and local news, and who has an established ground game. (See Campaign Tracker by the Washington Post – visits to States by Candidate noted in this interactive map). History will also play a factor, if one cannot succeed in the Southern States, one might as well be spitting into the wind, so to speak. Historically, those who have risen to the top of the pile, by virtue of either state wins in caucuses or primaries to win delegates at a convention, or those in a brokered convention, and who cannot, on their own merit, carry the South or the west, will choose a running mate that can – the exception being John McCain, a moderate who chose the conservative Govenor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, to boost the base. Consider the case of Kennedy, who chose Johnson in order to solidify the South, so important it was for that Massachusetts Democrat to have geographic representation in order to secure a win.
Therefore, one must look at strengths and weaknesses, endorsements being what they are, in the eyes of some, specifically those who are less inclined to watch the news more than once in a blue moon, or who pay little attention to the primaries, (this year, perhaps an exception). The GOP endorsements to date (running up to Iowa) have been made in large part to Mitt Romney and those endorsements have been mainly GOP establishment figures, Gingrich has received endorsements from, most recently a noted economics and Michael Reagan, Rick Santorum is being back by former Huckabee campaign personnel and certain evangelical leaders in the state, some of whom have gone so far as to suggest to other candidates that they drop out of the race. Ron Paul – has organization, the scope of which it is doubtful that anyone has bothered to look at with any seriousness – but they should.
Paul has, in the past, had the support of the youth vote (think Occupy Wall Street) but this has changed in the age of the Tea Party (think strict Constitutionalists) and now includes a wide spectrum of ages and individuals who are tired of “business as usual”.
A recent op-ed in the New Hampshire Union Leader by Publisher Joseph W. McQuaid entitled “Ron Paul is truly dangerous” speaks to the rise of the Paul Candidacy and the lack of media attention vis a vis Paul’s national security stance, one which many would conclude, as did Mr. McQuaid, are “dangerous” to the security of the nation. Mr. McQauid also points out that his appeal lays in his “domestic libertarian views” which “are quite attractive to some voters fed up with politics as usual”.
How organized is Paul? Take a look at one of the organizations that is backing Paul, to understand the scope of not only his campaign organization but what amounts to a “super pac” of supporters. The websites for reference are Young Americans for Liberty and the Campaing for Liberty (which boast 600,000 plus members). Granted this may not transform into votes, however, look back at the marginals of the Insider Advantage Poll to understand who is voting in the Iowa Caucus and those states through the end of March that offer proportional delegates to those placing, and open primaries where Independents and Democrats may vote and/or change affiliation to vote in the Republican Primary.
The Poll breakdown is shown below:
Insider Advantage Poll Iowa - click to enlarge
Iowa is of import as well as New Hampshire in measuring the depth of the organization of one Ron Paul versus the lack of grassroots organization of the establishment candidate Mitt Romney, leaving South Carolina and Florida to stop what may become a freight train. Those candidates that garner votes in sufficient numbers that cross party lines are at present: Paul, Gingrich and Bachmann, the three candidates that represent the most “outside of Washington” personas and are able to amass votes from all parties.
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