2012 GOP Update – Romney Wins AZ, Home State MI by 2 Points – Santorum Pulls Independents, Democrats and Conservatives - Analysis

Romney and Santorum - which is the better general election candidate? - image dailygossip.com


2012 GOP Presidential candidate Mitt Romney, won both the Arizona primary and the Michigan Primaryheld on Tuesday, February 28, 2012. Romney was expected to handily win in Arizona, with his main GOP Rival, Rick Santorum, focusing on Romney’s home state of Michigan and the all important state of Ohio, which votes on Super Tuesday. Romney won his home state of Michigan by 2 points, a victory and a win, yet the signs that Romney would have trouble in the general election are evident in analysis of the voter turnout. An excellent opinion piece from CNN Politics, suggests that the better general election candidate lost Michigan – Santorum who pulled independent and union voters in a larger margin that Romney or Paul – those votes which are crucial to a win in November.

Following GOP logic, that the moderate candidate is the only candidate that can win an election has cost them dearly over the years, (See McCain and Dole), while the candidates they despise, do best in coalescing a broad range of voters (See Reagan and now Santorum). There are several fallacies being presented in this primary season that should be addressed – these are part and parcel of the effort for campaigns to win at any cost – and the establishment GOP to push its “favorite son” forward. The first that Obama would prefer to run against a weaker candidate, such as Santorum is nonsense – it has been suggested that the Obama Campaign was prepared only for Romney, and Santorum or Gingrich were not the candidates they would want to face in a general.

Additionally, the fact that Democrats who cast votes for Santorum are doing so in some effort to derail Romney as a preferred candidate is ludicrous (as noted in the opinion piece from CNN). Santorum’s blue collar background, and his political acumen, allows him to attract those blue collar and independent voters that are necessary to win, while Romney continues to alienate the Conservative’s who came out in droves in Michigan as elsewhere. Understanding that each state is a separate entity, with each holding a diverse electorate, one must look at the States won and lost by Romney in his 2008 bid, to see a pattern that has developed which does not bode well for him in the general – regardless of which candidate is the “anti-Romney” and how much those that would support Obama to push Romney (and those in the establishment GOP with the firmly held belief that only moderates will prevail). The labeling of Santorum as some sort of religious, for lack of a better word, crackpot, is specifically designed to push voters towards Romney – while attempting to drown out the larger and more important messaging of Santorum on manufacturing as well as foreign and domestic policy. It may have worked with Mike Huckabee in 2008, allowing McCain to best Romney (moderate and more moderate), but Santorum is a different candidate, who has a solid track record of knowing how to campaign and how to win elections. Granted he did lose Pennsylvania, in his last Senate race, something that is consistently pointed out by Romney surrogates, however, the more salient facts are that he had lost the race to a Blue Dog Democrat, with family ties in the State of Pennsylvania in a year that was simply poison for Republicans. His loss was not personal to Santorum; rather it was endemic to the Republican Party itself.

The fact that states have primaries that are open and allow Democrats to votes in Republican primaries and vice versa, only highlights the fact that Santorum understands the campaign far better than the other candidates – he openly courted Democrats in Michigan, a move derided by the Romney Campaign and the Press (See Boston Globe article Santorum Defends Calls to Michigan Democrats). There is little to no evidence, outside of a few individuals interviewed by CNN and the Detroit Free press, that a local left-wing radio talk show host, picking up on an old Rush Limbaugh “Operation Chaos” strategy (vote for the candidate that will push out the best candidate), had any significant effect, and can be taken with a huge grain of salt. One must look to the fact that liberal radio talk shows have insignificant shares of the marketplace versus the powerhouse that is Conservative Talk radio. Therefore, it was more likely the campaigns robocalls to Democrats that got out the vote for Santorum, pulling him within 2 points of Romney in his home state of Michigan.

Next on deck- Super Tuesday – which will allow the candidates to pull more punches, and prove their mettle to the American public. The wins, and the losses of the southern and Midwestern states, which hold the largest share of delegates, will allow the dust to settle, and the road to the nomination will be more apparent to the general public. If Romney can pull better than he did in 2008, it will be surprising. He won 12 states in the 2008 primary season, several of those won by much larger margins and or not at all in 2012 – Colorado, Minnesota and Michigan for example. Regardless of the candidate that emerges, be it Romney or Santorum, that candidate will be tested and able to best face a challenge to the President, it is a question now, of which of the candidates will appeal to those who hope to stay the party course, or elect a Conservative who has broad enough appeal to pull the independents and the Democrats desperately needed to win the general.

Finally, the question must be put forth, if Gingrich or Paul were not in the race, would Romney have won either Arizona or Michigan? Ron Paul’s supporters are difficult to determine, however, Gingrich’s supporters would most likely gravitate to the less establishment GOP candidate – that would have pushed Santorum past Romney in both states. Should either of these candidates drop out of the race, hypothetically, then it is more probable that Santorum would best Romney handily in the upcoming Super Tuesday states primaries – It is probable by polling that he will, even with those candidates in the race, win in the Midwest and the South – a fact that has been clearly lost on the establishment GOP but not on the President’s supporters. Watch for more focus on the “social issue” Santorum from the press, as well as claims regarding the effectiveness of the “liberal talk show hosts” ability to pull a Rush Limbaugh.

2012 GOP Update – Michigan Swings in Final PPP Poll toward Santorum – Election Predicted to be Cliff Hanger

Public Policy Polling’s final marginal’s on a two day poll released yesterday show a Rick Santorum with a one point lead over Mitt Romney in Michigan. (PDF here.) - the poll has a margin of error of 3.2 points. There are several points in the poll that are of particular interest – the first being that early voters (18%) polled cast their votes by a margin of 56% Mitt Romney to 29% Rick Santorum, however, those that have yet to cast their vote prefer Rick Santorum to Romney by 40 to 33%. Santorum, whose economic plan suggests a zero tax for manufacturers, does slightly better with union members 37 to 32% to Romney, with 8% of the poll taken including Democrats (63% Republican, 29% Independent). The majority of those included in the poll did not watch the last debate (66 to 34%) and 27% of those responding may change their minds going into today’s vote. The statistics what Michigan voters are seeking in a candidate is most telling – with 56% preferring a candidate that they agree with on issues, and the top priority being the economy besting social issues by a margin of 64 to 19%.


Public Policy Polling, a Democrat leaning polling firm, is most often rock solid in predicting outcomes this close to an election, predicting Santorum’s Trifecta in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri. The fact that they are this tight, with a swing in Santorum’s favor the second day of polling, gives Santorum a slight edge, but still within the margin of error – making the Michigan Primary a nail-biter.

The Establishment GOP and Main Stream Press – Fear of Santorum – The Battle Between Conservatism and Moderates within the GOP – Analysis

Santorum - Feared by the GOP Establishment and the left - photo time magazine

First an article from the Daily Beastheadlines: “The GOP’s Panic over Rick Santorum”- which speaks to the GOP’s first choice Romney and their failed “strategy” for him to win the GOP nomination. The article notes that that polls show Santorum leading Romney, either one on one or with Paul and Gingrich, however, if it looks like Romney is out, the GOP has Chris Christie, new to the political stage as the Governor of New Jersey waiting in the wings to take on the Party’s Minimization. The article describes the reasoning that Santorum’s “controversies” will turn away young voters – rather than say a Mitt Romney or Chris Christie might get them to the polls in droves (Note later remark is bloggers sarcasm).

Following that logic, the man who has professed to not the office (so many times that it has become legendary) – and article from CBS alludes to the same theme – titled “Michigan may be Romney's last stand”, the CBS piece illustrates the rise of Santorum and the polling in Michigan, and should Romney lose Michigan, the GOP powers that be promise a “Brokered Convention” – this according to non-other than Chris Christie.
Needless to say, this same type of rhetoric from both the Press and the Establishment GOP was heard once before in 1980- the candidate was Ronald Reagan – and the panic was the same – how the tune changed once Reagan became the most popular of Presidents, and is now seen as the “bar” for all GOP Presidential hopefuls.

This is the problem with the national GOP – they believe that unless they run a “moderate” candidate, they cannot win (having short memories – see Reagan) – therefore they run, the Bob Dole’s, the John McCain’s, the appeasers to the left, and the result – they lose. Whiel losing the GOP might or might not pick up a majority –but a lot depends on the strength of the GOP in general and specifically the Speaker of the House – and right at the moment, John Boehner is more Romney than say Gingrich – who was successful is accomplishing just that – with Dole as the nominee. From a strategic standpoint, the only candidate that would worry all sides and achieve a rally to the base and independents who are fed up with the Obama administration policies (specifically economic), is Rick Santorum. Ron Paul, the perennial candidate, has a good percentage of the youth vote locked up – and as far as the youth vote goes – they generally do not account for a large enough percentage to affect an election. However, the “religious right” does. The Evangelicals and the Catholics are two of the largest voting blocs in the nation – If they come out in droves for a candidate (2000 and 2004 for George W. Bush (Evangelicals) and 2008 for Barack Obama (Catholics), then there is an effect, a real effect on who becomes the nominee.

Therefore, although the press and the national GOP and the DNC are terrified of the fact that those two factors, who they both court and dismiss at the same time – (being somewhat elitists) – when a candidate is surging who may be more credentialed than the rest of the PAC, but is not moderate enough for the taste of the national GOP, or the press, he is labeled “controversial”. Santorum has made statements that are just that, controversial to those who have no idea of what Catholicism entails, or the “Sexual Revolution – not the Progressive viewpoint, but the religious and also statistical viewpoint – and the latest charge that Universities might be teaching students liberal, progressive and anti-religious ideology. The problem with Santorum is that although one might not want to take a good looking the mirror, he does – he doesn’t mince words, and he makes no apologies for his statements.

The fact that colleges and universities are catered left (including Catholic institutions) is no secret. One is challenged and derided if one is not “secular” - it is a fact, but one must ask the college students, not the media and those elitist who were in agreement with the general think.

The Chicago Tribune in a piece that might be considered somewhat misleading given the headline “Rick Santorum rejects absolute separation of church and state” – speaks to the differences between Romney and Santorum, however, emphasized Santorum’s note on the “class system” developed by progressives.

The former Pennsylvania senator also doubled down on comments he made the previous day that believing everyone ought to go to college is snobbish and devalues the hard work done by Americans who don't hold college degrees. (Chicago Tribune)

It has become part and parcel of the American think that without a college degree on can do nowhere, however, those graduating from college today are faced with a choice between which fast food chain they are going to work for, assuming there are jobs available.
The Progressive ideology suggests that there is a class system (this is a taught at most universities in Senior Seminars): The First Estate, (those coming over on the Mayflower), the Second Estate (the Kennedy’s, Roosevelt’s, etc. who are very wealthy), and the Middle Class (or Elites), those who have a four year degree, then the Blue Collar workers (those who hold a high school degree and work in public service (police, firefighters, etc.) and then the “masses” – those who hold no degree.

It is the most ridiculous and misleading piece of useless information that is given to students that are about to receive a 4 year degree – that somehow the Kennedy’s are American Royalty, that they are now elite, and that the rest of the groups are “beneath them”. (This blogger had to sit through that course and not without a bit of argument). It is the most anti-American thought process, a class system in a nation that was designed to give opportunity for all, regardless of education, regardless of social standing, and yet, the courses and dogma give the student the impression that they are part of a social class – one last ditty from this course – certain things are not to be told to the “masses” because they cannot handle the information – no kidding. Also one is not supposed to "share" this "entitled" piece of information (indoctrination?)

When Santorum spoke of Kennedy’s speech on Separation of Church and State, he spoke to the fact that Kennedy was distancing himself from his Catholicism as he was facing a fierce battle for the nomination and his Catholicism was being used against him quite effectively – he needed to come up with an assurance – and he took the progressive stance – which appeased those on the left who feared the Pope would be running the United States (no kidding those were the anti-Kennedy ads from within his own party). It is an oxymoron to say the least, when the Constitution directly states that the State should make no religion primary, and protects the practice of religion – that’s it in a nutshell. The Separation of Church and State means simply that the United States cannot set up a Theocracy – and as far as anyone who studies the Constitution or has read the Bill of Rights – it is difficult to misinterpret. Yet if it is in the political interest of the Press, or a party – it is done so on a daily if not hourly basis.

The message one will hear is that Santorum is out of touch, right wing, when the reality is, he is a Catholic, with Catholic viewpoints (not shared by all Catholics, just as there are differences in all Christian and Jewish faiths (Orthodox, Conservative and Reform, for example) and one must suspect others not mentioned. His points are not within he mainstream think regardless of whether they are right, and that is all one hears. One does not hear about his economic policies nor his foreign and domestic policies, nor his energy policy. Rick Santorum is not Mitt Romney or the establishment GOP candidate – Good! Good for the Country – especially if they learn about his non-controversial statements (press and GOP speak) but rather his sound policy statements. The fact that Chris Christie, and the balance of the GOP standard bearers are threatening a “brokered convention” (just like they did in 1980 – except they wanted to run George H Bush instead of Reagan) – is just that, a warning to those who might see chaos and vote for Romney against their better judgment or their own preference.

The likelihood of this happening is nil, but the GOP and Press shoving this down the voters throats “literally’ is ridiculous. From this perspective and without a Chrystal ball – no one knows at this point who will win Michigan and or Arizona (as polls are too close to call), and on Super Tuesday, ten states go to the polls: Alaska - which may go to Romney, Georgia where Newt Gingrich and Santorum are doing well, Idaho, Santorum, Massachusetts, Santorum or Romney, North Dakota, Santorum, Ohio Santorum, Oklahoma Santorum, Tennessee, Santorum, Vermont – Romney, Virginia Ron Paul or Romney.

The fact is that Romney on Super Tuesday, based on current polling, may take 3 states, and with proportional delegates awarded in some, pick up a few. It is where he suffers, in the middle of the country and the south, which makes it impossible for a candidate, a GOP candidate to win the nomination and then win the presidency.

A closing though, Rick Santorum is not Ronald Reagan, but their current situations are so similar, one must make the comparison – one might suggest that Santorum would be the candidate to best Obama, given the national polls as well – therefore, the media fights against another Conservative taking the role of President, and so does the National GOP. It is a question of power, having power over those “masses” that is at stake. Santorum is, for all intents and purposes, a working man’s advocate, and that just breaks all the rules of both the Progressives and the national GOP – to encourage a working man (or woman) to believe they are of equal worth to the Elite – it’s simply heresy.