Tuesday, February 28, 2012

2012 GOP Update – Michigan Swings in Final PPP Poll toward Santorum – Election Predicted to be Cliff Hanger

Public Policy Polling’s final marginal’s on a two day poll released yesterday show a Rick Santorum with a one point lead over Mitt Romney in Michigan. (PDF here.) - the poll has a margin of error of 3.2 points. There are several points in the poll that are of particular interest – the first being that early voters (18%) polled cast their votes by a margin of 56% Mitt Romney to 29% Rick Santorum, however, those that have yet to cast their vote prefer Rick Santorum to Romney by 40 to 33%. Santorum, whose economic plan suggests a zero tax for manufacturers, does slightly better with union members 37 to 32% to Romney, with 8% of the poll taken including Democrats (63% Republican, 29% Independent). The majority of those included in the poll did not watch the last debate (66 to 34%) and 27% of those responding may change their minds going into today’s vote. The statistics what Michigan voters are seeking in a candidate is most telling – with 56% preferring a candidate that they agree with on issues, and the top priority being the economy besting social issues by a margin of 64 to 19%.

Public Policy Polling, a Democrat leaning polling firm, is most often rock solid in predicting outcomes this close to an election, predicting Santorum’s Trifecta in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri. The fact that they are this tight, with a swing in Santorum’s favor the second day of polling, gives Santorum a slight edge, but still within the margin of error – making the Michigan Primary a nail-biter.

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