The Nevada Caucus – Romney, Gingrich, Paul and Santorum – Is “Romney’s State” – “Safe GOP Moderate?”

Nevada has a varied population, perhaps as diverse as Florida’s, but obviously a Western flavor of frontierism that continues to pervade those who head west to find their fortunes. There are also obvious difference between the north and south of the State, but overall the State leans Conservative, with a bold streak of Independence. Like the Florida Primary, the Nevada Caucus is a Closed Caucus meaning only those who are Registered Republicans may vote in the caucus, however there is an opportunity for voters to change registration to vote in the Republican primary NV GOP.

Endorsements:

Sarah Palin has, again, endorsed Newt Gingrich in the same manner she had in South Carolina and Florida, ( Las Vegas Sun) it worked in South Carolina, however, the closed GOP primary, left out the Tea Party base that holds the Governor in such high esteem - yes, Independents and disenfranchised Democrats – were not voting on last Tuesday. It remains to be seen how much impact she will have on Nevada, since it is, again, a closed GOP Caucus.

Sharon Angle, the Tea Party Firecracker that upended the establishment GOP in Nevada in 2010 beating the incumbent and going on to lose to Harry Reid has endorsed Rick Santorum. Santorum is modeled on Gingrich, yet more of a Mr. Rogers style, social values Conservative, not, repeat, not to be confused with the fact that he has a solid foreign and domestic policy agenda – in other words, Santorum is the combination the best of the evangelical political worlds – but then again, so is Newt Gingrich. The choice between the two comes down to age, wisdom and the grandfatherly look, to youth, a Gingrich protégé (politically speaking), who is handsome and very presidential when he loses the sweater vest. Yet again, Tea Party members must be Registered Republicans to vote for either of the aforementioned.

It is no secret that two of the contenders in this race, Santorum and Ron Paul have a gift (so to speak) for the Caucus, while Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney may be relying on their advertising – that said, Gingrich is closer to the think of the Western Conservative than Romney. Regardless of the fact that this primary is closed, this is going to be one interesting Saturday.

Check Northern Nevada Talk: check out KKTF FM – talk radio Carson City/Reno. - Northern Nevada Tea Party focused Talk .
Not unlike the Florida panhandle – just for reference.

Ron Paul, may have more strengths in the caucus State and this may be his opportunity to grab a win – he is activiely courting the one voting bloc that is designated “Romney”, the Mormon Church. According the San Francisco Chronicle, Ron Paul Supporters are going door to door, and laying out Ron Paul’s policies, which align with that particular faiths vision of independence and liberty – comments from Nevadan’s in this piece, may give Romney’s team heartburn, especially if he loses any of the 25% voting bock that is the Mormon Church in Nevada.

Nevada will be the 5th State to weigh in on the GOP nomination – Grab the popcorn!

Romney Wins FL Closed GOP Primary: State Scorecard: Romney 2, Gingrich 1, Santorum 1 – Nevada On Deck - Analysis

Romney wins Fl by 14% over Gingrich in Closed Republican Only FL Primary


Mitt Romney the former Massachusetts Governor, Bain Capital Founder and Salt Lake City Olympic Savior has won the Florida GOP Primary – with 100% of the vote counted, Romney captured 46% of the Republican closed primary; Gingrich 32%, Santorum at 13% and Paul at 7% (Freedomslighthouse). The FL State GOP, in moving the date up in the calendar year, was penalized and lost delegates – 50 delegates instead of 99 were awarded to Romney prior. In Florida’s case all delegates were awarded to the winning candidate (Romney) and it is not a proportional state – over half the states award proportional delegates (everyone picks up delegates, according to placement).

The total delegate count to date is illustrated very well on CNN Politics: where Romney currently leads with 84 delegates, 66 won in primary contests, and the balance awarded by the GOP as “unpledged delegates”. Gingrich at 27, Ron Paul at 10, and Rick Santorum at 8 with one unpledged delegate – the total delegate count to win the election: 1144.

Give the Devil his Due:

Romney did extremely well in this Republican Only Primary, winning by 14% over Gingrich who, despite the barrage of negative advertising continued by Romney and his PAC, came in a respectable 2nd with a vote tally over 500,000. It appears that Romney’s forte is the negative ad, which played well in this particular state. Santorum and Paul, unlike Gingrich, did not compete in the State of Florida.

The Speech: Romney’s wife Ann gave a very remarkable and entertaining pre-Mitt introduction speech, the candidate himself, gave a short pointed speech skewering the President – and what Romney has learned in the last month since he was hammered by Gingrich in SC is to become a better communicator. Watching Romney deliver a speech prior to this elicited a deep desire to take a nap – in all seriousness, the man does not exude excitement or the ability to connect with the given audience – he now has this down (or appears to given his speech upon winning Florida: keep the speech short and to the point, as if watching a PowerPoint rather than a teleprompter: Romney ticked off the speech speaking first to the hard won battle between all candidates, and then why he, and not Obama should be the next President, he also looked sincerely into the camera, looking more Mitt than ever before - he out-Obamaed the president in his ability to work the camera to his advantage. For that performance – Mitt deserves credit – his fortunes may well lay with his ability to be coached through both the debates and the speeches – if he can continue in this vein, he may do as well in the Republican only contests.

Doesn’t the Republican only contest represent all facets of population?

Hardly: In a closed primary only Republican’s can vote, therefore, as the Tea Party is mainly made up of the anti-establishment (i.e. non-Republican and non-Democrats) they were not truly represented in Florida, in addition, Independents tend to also include those who would normally vote for either a Republican and or Democrat, making it difficult to tell if Romney could carry any Democrats, as in Blue Collar workers.

Therefore although Florida is another notch in the delegate belt, what Romney needs to do to convince everyone on the planet that he is indeed capable (we all know he’s the GOP chosen candidate and that the last man anyone in Washington wants in the White House is Newt Gingrich, who will boot them to the curb, no doubt) – he needs to win a state that a) is an open primary, with proportional votes, and by a wider margin that 14 points. Romney simply is not picking up the base, therefore, he has to be picking up the independent and Democrats that will swing, if he cannot, he will be yet another Republican Nominee who almost beat the incumbent. On that Speech by the way, Ann Romney delivered a rousing speech beforehand, thanking those who helped the campaign, and obviously the main cheerleader for her husband, Mitt.

On Newt Gingrich:

In delivering his Concession Speech, CNN political Analysis David Gergen” said it best (Paraphrased) “That was the speech Newt should have delivered in the Debates and he may have won Florida.” Gingrich’s speech was rousing, acknowledging briefly the fact that Florida was a loss and making a point that there were 46 additional states to weigh in – in addition Gingrich had honed his message as not only the Anti-Romney candidate (although Rick Santorum has some creds on that as well), but as the Anti-Establishment Candidate – an independent voice, for the people that would not give a whit about political party –in other words, a man that would run the nation based on the ideal our Founders put Forth in framing the Constitution. Political parties were their worst nightmare – Gingrich personifies the individual who would challenge the status qua, and shake things up in DC.

That is where the Tea Party and those who feel entrenched politico’s including those non-elected Party officials that plan who wins and who loses, need to meet Newt Gingrich. The strong oratorical skills shown in SC and in the speech last evening are what makes one want to see Gingrich take on the President – he shoots from the hip – and he manages to outperform expectations – whereby compared to Romney, who has two decent debate performances to date, and both in Florida, may have appeared strong, simply because he attacked Gingrich and Gingrich failed to show up – regardless of the fact that he may have been advised to tone down the rhetoric, or if he were road weary – there is no doubt that he lost Florida on the debate, and also on the fact that it was a closed Primary.

Where does that leave the GOP? This is a primary season unlike any other – watching CNN (by far superior to FOX for those who are not blinded by the GOP or any party), Political Analyst Donna Brazile said it best when she noted the Contests should go on, and mentioned popcorn. In addition, she also noted that Romney should not put his singing talents up against the President – although lighthearted, (and paraphrased), Ms. Brazile was spot on – this is a contest unlike any other in political history – where the public demands more action, debates are billed as “The Fight of the Century”, and where the average voter is thrilled to tune in. The fact that millions, depending on the network, anywhere from 5 to 7 million (approx.) viewers will tune into a Republican Debate, regardless of the fact that there have been dozens of debates so far – GOP Debates – who knew Republican candidates could be so entertaining?

Why didn’t Sarah Palin’s endorsement put Gingrich over the top?

Palin’s endorsement of Newt Gingrich (or, if I were in Florida I’d vote for Newt) most likely reached the right people (Tea Party, etc.), but they were not allowed to vote in the Florida primary – had this not been a closed primary – as the polls were based on “likely Republican voters”, including independents and Democrats”, the righteous indignation of one Sarah Palin fell on deaf ears.

Looking at CNN’s exist polls: Florida is less evangelical and/or religious, Florida Republicans are more moderate (think Massachusetts), and therefore, they do not depict those who, in November will actually cast ballots for the Republican Nominee – or, if the Republican ninnies is not to their liking, will a) stay home and not vote at all, or b) vote for the incumbent. It is the fact that Romney cannot connect with the base, something he desperately needs to do, and that leaves this race wide open.

Nevada, the next state on the agenda, will hold its Caucus on this Saturday and again, Romney is favored by the media and establishment to win – however, one must watch the Caucus State, where the Tea Party is stronger than the Republican Party and where Ron Paul and Santorum have been in place since last week. Gingrich flew directly there from Florida and will concentrate on that campaign rather than do the morning talk shows – what one does know is that none of these campaigns would be continuing if they felt that there was not an opening in which they could capitalize and possibly reach the nomination – therefore, given intelligence and internal polls in states that have Santorum and Paul appear set to go the distance, to Tampa if necessary.

Although anyone who has read this blog over a period of time understands that this blogger is no fan of the former Govenor of the Bay State (this blogger being a resident), for myriad reasons ranging from Fees (Note to Mitt, these are taxes no matter how one slices it), to Social Issues (specifically as regards the Catholic Church and its inability to promote adoptions in Massachusetts), and the facts about Robama Care and how it is not the best plan and never was. There is some resentment in Massachusetts, one might add, due to the many promises Romney made to GOP members and did not deliver (note to the FL AG), but more importantly, the rank and file conservatives (which include the 12% of the Republicans and the 51% of the Independents in part) who feel he abandoned the state to seek higher office, used the Governor’s office to do so, and then left the state with Deval Patrick a model for Barack Obama (literally), and a State Legislature chock full of like-minded progressive Democrats. In other words, hanging those who still held out a shred of hope that Massachusetts would, somehow not become the most taxes, highest cost of living, mandated Democrat controlled state in the Union. Perhaps it’s not fair to Romney; however, that’s how it appears. As Massachusetts is an Open Primary – it will be interesting to see how well Romney does in the State where he governed, against Gingrich and Paul who already have organizations on the ground, with Gingrich (PAC) running ads well ahead of the March 6 primary.

If Romney does end up the nominee by virtue of no help from his friends in high places, then so be it, it is, at this point, debatable (no pun intended) if he can best the incumbent, who has only prepared for a Romney victory. It would be a battle of billions in dollars spent – and to this point of view, the outcome is less certain, even though those same establishment voices continue to push the theory that Romney is the best candidate to beat Obama. One has to understand, (or reiterate) a closed Republican Parity in Florida where the voters think Mitt Romney is a stronger candidate is the Establishment of the GOP, whereas, the Open Primary in SC would be those most likely to vote be they independent, Republican or Democrat – and in that primary, Gingrich took the “most likely to best Obama vote. Again, only two states, out of 50, and only 4 having weighed in so far – it will be a long road, and as Romney said, the one who emerges from the ashes of the GOP 2012 primary season, will be battled hardened, and ready for Prime Time.

Last Florida Polls – Gingrich Polls Within Reach 45% of Romney Supporters May Jump Ship Romney’s Attack Ads - His Undoing – Again

Romney Constant Attacks on Newt Gingrich May Have Adverse Affect on - Romney -Image from The West Orlando News Online

As Floridian’s go to the polls this morning, a last poll conducted by the Insider Advantage Group showed the gap between Romney and Gingrich closing to a 5 point Romney Lead, there is no margin of error shown on the poll stats provided in PDF from Real Clear Politics.com. What is interesting in the marginals is that the poll reflects the make-up of voters in the state, more so than other polls taken. The biggest gap in “may change one’s mind” leading up to the final days comes from Public Policy Polling, where Romney leads by 9 points, however, and here’s the big if (see page 5 of the PDF from PPP Crosstabs: Committed to the Candidate: Romney, more than any other candidates see support that is willing to go to another candidate (even up to the last day) 45% of Romney voters may jump ship. Although Romney's leading in early balloting, it may be the only area in which he leads when polls begin to close this evening. At this point, and with polls this divisive, it will be difficult to say, at this point, who might win the Florida primary with Gingrich and Romney within 5 points, and variables that suggest Romney has not “sealed the deal” with the voters.

One reason may be his scored each attempt to destroy opponents, to the point where both right and left pundits are coming to the defense of Newt Gingrich – Romney has no problem playing fast and loose with the facts, something he is well known for from the 2008 campaign. In that campaign the negative ads were just almost but not quite as egregious as those used to date in this campaign, and it may well be that he has placed some serious doubts in voters’ minds regarding his stability when it comes to the national race – a candidate that will say or do anything to get elected, regardless of accuracy (mistakes here and there, can be attributed to the exhaustion of the campaign trail, however, Romney is on 24/7, and on Newt Gingrich.

Therefore, he is not taking time to talk about Mitt Romney and he is also not taking shots at Obama, but so over-focused on eliminating his chief competitor that he has lost sight of the “prize”, it is his usual undoing.

Florida may well end up being a Newt Gingrich win by the time the votes are tallied, and if so, it will be a hair breath win, not be a “blowout” for Romney as anticipated but a squeaker which, when all is said and done, will be similar to the Iowa vote – meaning nothing more, nor nothing less for the Romney Campaign. That applies should Romney win, with less of a commanding lead than South Carolina (which is traditionally the state that accurately predicts the nominee, and that state went to Gingrich). Should Romney leave Florida and somehow lose Nevada – then even with a win that would be a psychological blow, especially if Gingrich bests him in a state considered “Safe Romney”.

Of note: Gingrich ads are running in Massachusetts – which is interesting – a state that is a Super Tuesday State, and former home to the one-term Governor Romney.

Video’s below


Sarah Palin Weighs In.

Chris Matthews Weighs In!!