Rasmussen – Massachusetts Ramps Up Independence – Trouble for Patrick as well as Congressional Incumbents

Pollsters - Massachsuetts 2010 and 2012? image: blog optimism for America

A new poll released by Rasmussen on March 8th, reveals that the Commonwealth has no longer is blindly following a liberal bent; rather, the independent streak appears to be growing stronger. In this particular poll the crosstabs are revealing - the Gubernatorial Election is tight, with Patrick leading with 35%, GOP Frontrunner, Charlie Baker with 32% and Democrat turned Independent Cahill down to 19% - the kicker: 14% of those polled are currently undecided. The undecided’s, incidentally, are often aligned with name recognition and or a favorable rating, which in Baker’s case, a startling 28% of those polled have no opinion (meaning they have not heard of or have sufficient knowledge of Charlie Baker). In a match-up with Patrick, only 13% view him very favorably, while Cahill comes in at 10% and Baker at 17%. The Governors current overall approval (includes strongly and somewhat approves) is at 33%. With independent candidates coming out strong “out-of-the-gate” and normally finishing in the 6 percentile, the 3 point gap that Separate Baker and Patrick should close quickly over the summer and into the fall, as long as Baker’s staff makes sure that his name becomes “household” across the Commonwealth. That 28% could conceivably push Baker ahead of Patrick in double digits.

Political campaigns are all about branding – 1 the brand of the Candidate and, fortunately for Baker, the brand of the Political Party in general. If Baker introduces himself to the Commonwealth, remains upbeat in any advertising, he will minimize the threat from Cahill, and Patrick will be, as they say, history.

The Kennedy state no more – 58% of those polled feel that the Kennedy dynasty is over, and the health care issue is still a driving force in the Bay State, with 31% strongly approving and 40% strongly opposing, on this issue Bay Stater’s know where they stand, only 2% were “unsure” (refused). When adding in those on the “somewhat fence”, the support Obama’s Health Care plan jumps to 46% and those that oppose to 52%. What one must keep in mind – this is Massachusetts. The Presidents Handling of Health Care Reform: 19% believe he’s done an excellent job, while 44% believe he has done poorly. That is stunning. Additionally, Massachusetts voters believe that the Insurance Companies would do a better job that the Federal Government, 50% to 42%.

Obama’s overall approval rating in the Commonwealth (includes the somewhats), is at 44%! With a disapproval rating of 46%, which tells us that Massachusetts has joined the rest of the nation (Gallop latest Obama approval: 46%).

All that aside, those who are considering a Congressional run, or are now invested in a run against a current Congressional representative, get a serious boost – 38% of those polled feel that the current representative in Congress deserves to be reelected – 38% feel that they do not. This particular question has those undecided’s in-line with Baker’s numbers: 24% are unsure. (Branding). When asked if the nation would be better off if the incumbent were to be defeated – 53% of Bay Stater’s believe that the entire Massachusetts Democrat Controlled congressional legislation should be sent packing, while 25% support keeping them in office, and 22% remain sitting on the fence. In reviewing the data on both previous poll questions, the percentage of those sitting on the fence is a 2 point difference. This means that those Republicans or Independents running in each district better start knocking on doors and introducing themselves; to everyone in the district. Instead of holding barbeque's and cocktail parties, it would behoove those that want a clear shot at making history, to get in the trenches and get to know their future constituents.

Almost every single congressional district in Massachusetts is in play, and two in particular, the 2nd Hampden and the 4th, are going to be the districts to watch. Those candidates that have an independent streak, will perform the best in these two districts, right now, that’s Jay Fleitman in the Hampden 2nd, and Earl Sholley in the 4th (excellent review here: at Massachusetts Election 2010.

In conclusion, Massachusetts which has always been dubbed “Safe Democrat” and the “Bluest State” is changing. That change comes from the growing number of independents, or registered unenrolleds, who will vote for the person, not the party – it does not matter that Democrats currently outnumber Republican’s, it matters which candidate (or incumbent) is able to convince the majority of voters that they deserve the nod. In 2010, Massachusetts, against all odds (referring to the media’s take) may indeed shock the nation once again.

Barney Frank Seeks Mortgage Write-Downs of $442 Billion from Four Banks Includes Frank Friendly BOA

With Housing still in shambles, despite bailouts and a variety of failed programs, Rep. Barney Frank is going back to the banks, hat in hand so to speak, for more. According to the Financial Times, Frank had sent an email to the heads of Chase, Citi, Wells Fargo and Band of America, to “save housing”. FT includes an excerpt from the email:

“The four organizations you lead are major participants in the second-lien market. Failure to modify these debts has become a major and unnecessary obstacle to thousands of Americans being able to stay in their homes. I urge you in the strongest possible terms to take immediate steps to write down these second mortgages and allow principal reduction modifications of the underlying first liens to take place. If there are legal obstacles to your doing so, we will work with you to remove them.”

In essence, Frank is asking the banks to write down the second liens, which, in the world of mortgages, requires first reducing the principle on the original mortgage. The second-lien request is a “first step” in the process.
One understands that Frank, who has had his hands in the nations finances, specifically issues of housing and mortgages, along with now retiring Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT), have a good relationship with the banks, especially those that are now considered “owned” by the “State”.

Chief among them is Bank of America and its Massachusetts based CFO, Brian Monihan, who had supported Dodd’s failed bid for the presidency (list of contributions here ). In addition, Monihan is now actively supporting Barney Frank’s re-election campaign, as reported by business week.

Frank’s promise in his email to the four executives to “remove any legal obstacles” in order to move his latest scheme forward, is the type of “business as usual”, which is primarily to blame for the current economic situation.

Recall Frank’s relationship with Mortgage Giants, Freddie and Fannie, going as far back as 2003 when Frank insisted that:

'These two entities -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- are not facing any kind of financial crisis,'' said Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, the ranking Democrat on the Financial Services Committee. ''The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.'

(NYT)
At the time, Franklin D. Raines was the Chief Executive Officer, one with which Frank had a personal relationship.
Frank helped (or was responsible) for the destruction of the two biggest mortgage lenders in the nation, and now, he’s asking the largest banks (see TARP and beholden) to go along with another one of his fiscally unsound programs. With Bank of American CFO supporting Frank’s camping, red flags should be flying up all over the 4th district as well as the nation.

There are several Republicans running against Frank in the 4th, as well as a Democrat, and a list of “other” party affiliate contenders. The frontrunner in the 4th District race is a populist, who is strong on term limits, anti-tax and fiscal responsibility. Earl Sholley www.sholleyforcongress.us. A source inside the campaign noted that Sholley is running his campaign debt free. In addition, although he may not be the perfect candidate in the eyes of the State GOP, (or the Boston Heralds, Howie Carr, who also dismissed Scott Brown’s candidacy), Sholley has less “baggage” than the current occupant of the Congressional Seat.

This bears repeating; he ran against Frank in 2008 for the first time, entered late and was able to garner a percentage of the vote that would have to have included all or most of the Republican’s in the district as well as Independents and perhaps a Democrat or two. He’s got an interesting take on the issues, and worth a listen – Broadcasts from his weekly radio show are available here at “Ask Earl”

To find additional information as to who is running in the 4th district, (FEC Filings) go here

Note: This does not include all candidates running in the 4th, but those who have filed with the FEC.

Dr. Jay Fleitman resigns from NoHo Board of Health to Focus On Race Against Democrat Richard Neal

The Daily Hampshire Gazette has reported that Dr. Jay Fleitman, GOP candidate for the 2nd Hampden Congressional District, has stepped down from his long-held position on the Board of Health. Fleittman, who practices pulmonary medicine, is a rarity in the City of Northampton, locally dubbed “NoHo”. The city is home to Smith College, and has a heavy liberal bent, yet Jay Fleitman is not only well received, but a respected member of the community despite being a Republican.

Flietman made his decision to run for against Neal early in the game (pre-Scott Brown), Neal, a 20 year veteran of Congress, had been unchallenged for decades, and has been confident in his position, enough so that he has not produced one piece of legislation. Like clockwork, Neal’s staff sends mailers out every two years to constituents warning about the evils of Republicans, and/or touting what he has accomplished in the district. One of the favorite Neal claims is that he has, time and again, “saved Westover Air Reserve Base”, which is one of the most strategic basis in the nation, and has been since World War Two. (A bit of Al Gorism can be found in Neal at times.) Perhaps the two biggest reasons to take a hard look at Flietman as an alternative to Neal are:

1) Neal has consistently voted with the Democrats in Congress, never crossing the aisle, regardless of the worth of a particular bill. His latest “Town Hall” on health care in August, was held in Worcester (which is part of the District, but far from the major cities of Springfield, Holyoke and Chicopee). He defended the Congressional Brand of Health Care Reform over the objection of his constituents.

2) Most recently, disgraced Democrat Charles Rangel was forced to resign his Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee. Rangel’s choice of replacement: Richard Neal. Neal did not get the nod from the House, rather the gavel went to a Michigan Democrat, but Neal intends, according to the several sources, to fight for the post, although he must first make it through the November elections. The reason one cites this aspect of Neal’s career is that a recommendation to a post by someone who is so corrupt, as a Democrat, that they are forced out, speaks volumes.


However, the question remains, will a Republican be able to oust long-term Democrat Congressional Representative in 2010. The answer is a resounding yes, with some caveats. The candidate must be able to connect to voters on several levels, be a populist, independent minded individual. Fleitman completes this profile admirably. In addition, his candidacy was announced pre-Scott Brown, which, in this mind, no matter which district, speaks volumes about the sincerity of the candidate and the will of the candidate to take on the “odds”.

This is not to say that the bevy of candidates coming forth from the woodwork to run across the Commonwealths districts are not worthy, it is just that decisions were made post-Scott Brown, the congressional districts analyzed ad nauseum in order to determine if a “Republican” win would be feasible. It also speaks volumes about courage and conviction of one’s principals and abilities. One must face the facts, Scott Brown was and remains Scott Brown, someone who at times distanced himself from the GOP, an independent minded thinker that did not run because he looked at the Commonwealth and past races and thought – I can do this because so and so won the race.

That’s one of the finer points about Jay Fleitman (among other candidates who are running in several other districts), he ran because he felt he needed to do something. He “manned-up” before it was a popular thing to do and looking at all the angles, he’s just independent enough to appeal to the voters of the Hampden 2nd in a big way. One can bet that residents of the 2nd Hampden may be treated to yet another postcard in 2010 from Richard Neal.