Who’s polling who? WSJ/NBC Poll and Obama Lead

Time (in partnership with CNN), ran a story this past weekend on a recent WSJ/NBC poll that shows Obama leading McCain by 6 points. In retrospect, one would expect Obama to gain in points, especially after clinching the nomination, but the lead of 6 points overall, is not exactly a stunning bump. What might be suspect about this particular poll is that it trends predictable compared to past electoral makeup’s with Obama leading among women, blacks, Catholics and Independents and McCain among whites, males and superman woman and evangelicals. What is most interesting however is that the poll indicates Obama with a hefty advantage among Hispanic voters, 68 to 28% in favor of Obama?

The question is - which 500 New Yorkers, or San Francisco, or Los Angeles residents did they query for this particular poll?

Perhaps they should be polling in Massachusetts, where the general public is the exact demographic one finds allegedly backing the Democrat party. Generally, Hispanics are conservative, and that will be the group to watch this election cycle. Women are another wild card this time around. CNN commentators and college students do not represent the majority of women. Women in the Bay state are still a bit put off by Obama, and a bit angry at those elected officials that immediately jumped aboard the Obama express, after the vast majority of the state (with the exception of college enclaves) voted Clinton.

One longs for the most accurate poll, one that included 20,000 or 30, 0000 respondents, not the 500 or 1000 random registered voters used in polls by a variety of “news” organization to try and sway the general public. Watch the Vegas Line, the smart money is on McCain, with demographics that have traditionally trended Democrat crossing party lines. It will be the independents or unenrolled voters in this election cycle – and although NBC polls indicate Obama is making inroads in that group – it is a group that McCain has owned since he took to the Senate floor.

McCain on the Move - The Energy Man

McCain at Townhall Meetings, Union Leader, NH

Yesterday, John McCain called for a lift on the offshore drilling ban, indicating individual states should make the decision to drill or not to drill. Finally, someone is suggesting something tangible in response to the current surge in oil prices that will certainly cripple those states that experience the global warming trends of freezing temps from October to April. The Obama camp responded in a predictable manner – opposition to US drilling offshore or anywhere for that matter. Funny thing is that offshore drilling does take place, within 90 miles of the US coastline - not by US companies, but by Cuba off the Florida coast. Apparently, Cuba is in no danger of any political attacks from the Progressive Obama camp – not being politically expedient.

McCain also supports a gas-tax holiday, although he hasn’t brought that up recently, he should hammer home energy concerns hard, especially in areas that will be most affected immediately following the general election in November.

Move on.org, the right hand of the Obama machine, is set to run attack ads against McCain’s Iraq position. It’s a good thing that Move on is giving the Democrat Party a helping hand, considering they are facing budget shortfalls for their Denver convention. With all the spin coming from the DNC as to the lack of funds McCain may or may not have, it is ironic that they are the ones having problems funding the big party. Or is it? The big money Clinton supporters have not yet dished out a dime to support the DNC. George Soros may have to continue to bail out Obama and the party he chooses to run.

It boils down to who the electorate is going to trust the most, in the final analysis, much the same way it broke down in 2004. At that time, the press and the pundits were convinced that John Kerry would lead the march to the white house on the Iraq war theme and the general population disenfranchised with George W. Bush. Swift boat ads aside, John Kerry was not a popular guy, but he did have one thing, experience. He sat in that Senate seat for more 20 years, granted doing very little, but at the very least he was present. Meanwhile, Obama, brilliant though he may appear, has little actual experience, except to take every possible opportunity in a fast track to his current position, with little vetting by the press. It will be the next four months that allow the American people (and the varied 527’s), to delve into the candidates history in order to get to know them a bit better. McCain’s record is solid, regardless of his quasi-conservative credentials (Mike Huckabee as a V.P. running mate would take care of that problem), and Obama’s is yet to be proven, (his V.P. choice will do little to change the course of nature as he is the focal point of the campaign). It will not, therefore, be a surprise, when November rolls around and the race tightens to within a one-state battleground. The question will be which state, and if it is a large electoral state that Clinton carried in the primary, how many of those vengeful voters will turn to McCain? Women, although Obama and the press are desperately trying to court the demographic, are not easily swayed (except for giddy CNN commentators, and the Obama girls found round the globe), it will be those pesky 40 plus voters who could care less how charming Obama looks in his Speedo, that will make the difference. McCain is outlining actual plans, much like Hillary Clinton had done, before her party and the media sent her back to the “kitchen.”

John Kerry and Joe Lieberman, the Irony of a Veiled Threat

In a recent AP Article (Breitbart) on Joe Lieberman’s support for John McCain over Barrack Obama and the Democrat party hierarchy reaction, some interesting points were made regarding Lieberman’s importance to the party in general. As of now, the Democrats need Joe Lieberman - who generally supports the party – as they hold such a narrow margin in the Senate. Kerry, speaking on speculation that Lieberman may be punished by removing him from committee chairs, said "I can’t tell you what will happen next year."

Kerry, who, for the first time in a dozen years, actually has to wage a two front campaign due to a challenge within his own party (brought about by his dismal record as well as his support for Obama over the wishes of his constituents) by Gloucester Attorney Ed O’Reilly, and from the Republican, Jeff Beatty, who has a solid grassroots campaign within the state and general appeal. Kerry, who is the least well-like Bay state politician, may not be going back to Washington next year making his statement on Lieberman ironic, to say the least.

Kerry’s challenger in the Bay State is shown as nothing more than a minor annoyance, however, it is surprising that there have been zero polls taken since the surprising Zogby poll of August, 2007 (Cape Code Today), showing the Senator in a dead heat with challenger Jeff Beatty.

Lieberman, a moderate Democrat, held his seat by running as an Independent in 2004. The national Democrat Party, with Dean at the helm, favored a progressive Democrat to replace Lieberman. Although, Obama initially supported Lieberman, once the party line went to the left in support of Ned Lamont, Obama quickly abandoned Lieberman, and got right in line with the rest of the boys. Lieberman owes no allegiance to Obama, and or the party as it now stands. He has shown over the years his ability to maintain his integrity in a party that has been infested by elite progressives who are more interested in power than the people they represent. Lieberman is a true public servant, putting his constituents and the country before political affiliation.