CNN-Opinion Research Polling Obama Believed Unlikely to Win Second Term – Compares Obama to Clinton in Polling Data Release - Analysis

Trouble in River City – No matter how one slices it, 51% of American’s polled in a CNN-Opinion Research Poll believe that Obama will be replaced in 2012. The poll (PDF here) taken the last week of January 2011, compares 1995 Gallup Trends polling on Bill Clinton’s presidency to the results of their poll on Obama in order to draw the conclusion that Clinton was polling in similar numbers to Obama now, and went on to win re-election.

In looking at potential two-term Presidents and polling, in January of 2003, George W. Bush was polling at approximately the same numbers as both Clinton and Obama, however, he was expected to win, not lose the Presidency. What one has to consider when viewing polls on individual Presidents, is the key word “individual”. Each President had an individual approach to leadership, which either appealed or, in some cases did not appeal to American voters a year before the general election campaigns began. In comparing the results of Bill Clintons poll numbers to Obama’s poll numbers is akin to comparing apples to oranges. Clinton was viewed as a moderate, the polling was taken in January of 1993, following the news of personal scandals involving President Clinton – it was, in a word, an approval or disapproval of a personal nature, not based on the man’s ability to govern. The Republican’s nomination of Bob Dole in 1995, a weak candidate, gave Clinton the help needed to gain a second term. In addition, Clinton transitioned as a moderate, and with apparent sincerity. Consider Welfare Reform, for instance, and a solid economy, an appearance of working closely with both sides of the aisle, since he took the office in his first term lent to his reelection in 1996.

There are several reasons that Barak Obama may not realize a second term, regardless of an apparent move to the center, and his recent epiphany regarding Ronald Reagan’s policies, the chief among them, his polarizing effect on the electorate, his administrations performance on the Health Care Reform and the Economy will also continue to play a factor. At this stage in the game, regardless of the fact that there are, according to CNN, no clear frontrunners in the GOP field (as no one has clearly announced an intent to run), Obama’s job approval continues to remain stagnant, and sinking on his handling of the economy (latest Gallup).

Although not one of us has a crystal ball to predict a future, it is, based on historical trends and reactions in comparing Obama to a similarly ideological U.S. President, Jimmy Carter, where one finds a basis to realistically anticipate the probability is high that Obama will not gain a second term. Carter not only faced dismal poll numbers, and a challenger from within his own party, Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy. Carter did go on to win the nomination, but lost the Presidency to Ronald Reagan in what can only be termed as a total repudiation of Carters’ policies.

When one reviews, the economies under both presidencies (Carter/Obama), their handling of the respective situations in a similar manner, and subsequent failure, the advancement of the government roll and entitlement programs under both administrations, and finally, foreign policy as regards the Middle East, would appear to data worth reviewing. Perhaps CNN should have compared a similar president, ideologically speaking, in their polling on Obama, say Carter, rather than Clinton to draw an accurate conclusion. However, as badly as the media (CNN) wants Obama in a second term, the use of Clinton as an example, does nothing to support the theory that Obama, like Clinton will overcome this deficit.

On the Republican potential nominees, Mike Huckabee receives the highest approval and favorability, with Mitt Romney and Palin both at his heels in the same poll. What was of interest in this particular portion of the poll, the question on the import of a candidates’ views matching one’s own, or the ability of a candidate to best Obama – Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents overwhelming chose the latter. Therefore, one might overlook Romney’s involvement in Massachusetts Care, or Huckabee’s “liberal” ability to govern across the aisle (not to mention his Christian Credentials), or even Sarah Palin’s “polarizing personality” if it was though that individual would beat the current President.


Note: Although by now, readers of this blog understand that Public Policy Polling is a favorite pollster, (based on two facts: 1) accuracy of their polling data) and 2) They are a Democrat Leaning firm which, if one finds Republican’s with gains in a firm that skews Democrat, then one cannot question their integrity, or the integrity of the polling data. This firm has been polling both the GOP field (as it is seen now), along with matchups between those GOP potentials and the President since 2010 – the results are telling: To follow the trends visit http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/surveys.

2012 GOP Potential Candidates the Media A-List in Review

2012 GOP Frontrunners (as of December 2010): Romney, Palin and Huckabee: image: freedomslighthouse.net
As 2011 is upon the political horizon, the year that those who will run for the office of the President of the United States are either in the process of, or have already made a commitment to run in the GOP 2012 primary. A great deal of speculation has taken place; it seems as if the question of who would run began to take shape as soon as the current occupant at Pennsylvania Avenue was sworn into office.

Every news outlet has its opinion on who is in the “pack” of potential candidates, a selection of network news, online blog, a news magazine and a national newspaper were chosen for this overview to show how the speculation differs, or remains the same, depending upon the medium.

According to ABC News the list of primary contenders includes: Frontrunners: Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee, they list “Chief Challengers”; Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour and John Thune. The last category “Wild Cards” includes Mike Pence, Ron Paul, George Pataki, Rick Santorum and John Bolton. One of the “Wild Cards” is now considering a run for Governor of Indiana, that would be Congressman Mike Pence.
(The Wall Street Journal analysis of Pence as a potential candidate follows the logic of one who has built “stature” within the GOP.)

The conservative National Review online offer no less than 24 possible candidates:

Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, John Thune, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Mike Pence, Rick Santorum, Haley Barbour, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Paul Ryan, David Petraeus, Ron Paul, Jeb Bush, John Bolton, Bob McDonnell, Jim DeMint, Chris Christie, Herman Cain, Gary Johnson, Judd Gregg, Marco Rubio, and Rick Perry.

The author, Jonah Goldberg, goes on to narrow the field to eleven, “Romney, Gingrich, Palin, Pawlenty, Santorum, Bolton, Daniels, Cain, Johnson, Paul, and Thune.” He further eliminates those who might not have the traction during the primary contest to make the authors top five: “Romney, Palin, Gingrich, Pawlenty, and Daniels”. His reasoning for eliminating Mike Huckabee, generally considered to be the top if not tied at the top contender in all polls: : “there’s growing buzz that Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and a fierce defender of his top-tier contender status, may not run because he’s got a big new contract with Fox News in the works.”

Finally, USA Today follows the money to bring the top five potential GOP frontrunners to the table. vis a vis, money raised through individual PAC’s (Political Action Committees). USA Today employed CQ MoneyLine and the Federal Election Commission data to reach the following Conclusions as to which of the above mentioned (in all articles) will likely rise to the occasion based on the dollar amounts raised by their respective PAC’s as well as monies donated by those PAC’s to GOP candidates and committees. The amounts are based on the 2009-2010 filing/election cycle.

The breakdown:
*Haley Barbour (Governor, MS), Haley’s PAC, $1.1 million, disbursed $233,590 to GOP
*Mike Huckabee (Former Governor of Arkansas), HuckPAC, $1.8 million, disbursed $137,500
*Newt Gingrich (Former House Speaker), American Solutions PAC, $705,279, disbursed: $224,750
*Sarah Palin, (Former Governor of Alaska), SaraPAC, $5.4 Million, disbursed $516,500
*Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota Governor), Freedom First PAC, $3.3 Million, disbursed: $214,111
*Mitt Romney (Former Governor Massachusetts) Free and Strong American PAC, $7.4 Million, disbursed $827,708.

Therefore, if one “follows the money”, and granted these are PAC’s not campaign contributions generated by the individual candidate, however, for the sake of speculation, this scenario places the contenders in the following order: Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee, Haley Barbour and Newt Gingrich. The political capital gained by disbursing funds will also come into play, however, of note: Mike Pence, who is missing from this list, crisscrossed Indiana this year in support of local Republicans, contributing over $84,000 to their campaigns and attending 30 events for state legislative candidates. (Wall Street Journal),. The aforementioned goes to intent as to the office of the Governor rather than that of President.

That said, one must recall the battle of Iowa in 2008, where one Mike Huckabee, with an estimated $80,000 dollars, outspent by Mitt Romney who invested millions, and won the day. It is, therefore, a necessary combination of willingness to take the heat, the ability to inspire a true grass roots following, and the ability to raise enough money to run a successful campaign through the primary to gain the nomination. In that case, Grass Roots would go to both Palin and Huckabee, Palin also will score higher on fundraising, while, Mitt Romney’s strength is in cash alone. (Of course, all analysis is based on the assumption that the aforementioned will run at all, and will end up being in the position of front runner).

Furthermore, should this scenario unfold as likely,(with the three most visible GOP contenders as of this moment), one must look to the obvious: which one of these three would be able to hold enough states necessary to win the primary and then go onto hold those states to win a general election. Romney has proved that he can hold the Northeast (coast), the West (coast), the northern states (MI, WY, UT), but fails in the Midwest and the South. Huckabee, on the other hand, may have trouble in the Northeast (specifically more liberal states and states that Romney calls home), but can handle the South and the Midwest. In looking at states where Huckabee and McCain competed in the 2008 primary, the point differential was minor between the two candidates, and with Romney in the mix, he was normally third. Palin, who is, like the current occupant of the White House, more controversial, yet appealing to the same conservative base as Mike Huckabee, should do well in those very same states.

Should these three be locked in a battle, it would, in this opinion, boil down to two candidates Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin. That is if Huckabee, will, as some sources in Arkansas have already indicated, run in 2012.

Of note: both Palin and Huckabee have used the media (specifically Fox and other outlets) in order to maintain a national spotlight.

An excellent bio of all ABC’s potential candidates is available with the article abcnews.co.com/Politics/2012-republican-presidential-candidates-abc-news-guidebook/story

Sarah Palin – Iowa Book Tour Stop Significance – Rock Stars and the Media

Palin Draws large crowds in economically stressed Michigan - blog Adoring Palin

From Politico Jonathan Martin offers an analysis of Sarah Palin’s latest stop on her book tour: Sioux City, Iowa. Martin is one of the hundreds of news articles questioning the former GOP Vice Presidential nominees visit to the state and the implied “significance” that her visit (or Pawlenty’s or Huckabee’s) must mean a run at the White House in 2012. What is missing from these articles is the fact that Iowa has bookstores, and Palin is on a book tour – nothing more and nothing less – on the face of it.

One thing is certain, on Palin, she is one of those individuals who inspires, either admiration or scorn, depending upon which end of the political spectrum one is based. That said, in recent months, Palin, as a conservative, has apparently added to her popularity as those pesky pollsters continue to print findings on that nations political ideology and Palin herself. CNN headlines: “Polls Show Sarah Palin Still Viable for 2012”, while, Rasmussen Polling shows that Republicans are currently holding a 7 point lead in the generic congressional ballot.

For the politically minded, there is a great deal of fun to be had in speculating on who might run in 2012, that said, Palin’s popularity, or, more to the point, the obsession over Palin, by the media and those who may not care for her (often one in the same), is becoming more palpable by the day. A stop in Iowa may be just that – a stop at a bookstore, to sign copies of a book, because the book store is simply – there. The fact that people are standing in line, in conservative districts, to purchase her book (and as noted in the Politico piece) and have never involved themselves before in Iowa politics, coming from Republican and Independent designations, speaks volumes, not about Palin’s intentions necessarily, but about the direction of political think in this country and the need to find someone who people “trust”.

Should the Palin book tour stopped in Massachusetts, (Not on the Schedule) and hundreds or more had lined up to get a signed copy of her book, that would have been significant. That said the book is getting harder to find in Massachusetts, a run into a local Borders found one copy left on the shelf – the books are on backorder.

This is reminiscent of the popularity of one much dismissed (by the media years in advance of his presidental run) Ronald Reagan, who in the end won the State of Massachusetts, not once, but twice in his presidential bids.

Palin may have been in Iowa (and most likely was) to support her book tour, nothing more, nothing less. However, the attention she is generating is, to say the least, intense. Palin, based on the Politico analysis, has the ability to appeal to men, women, independents, republicans, and a few former Democrats who view her as a role model. Even shock rapper, Eminem included Palin in the lyrics of his song “We Made You (RockStar)”. Inclusion in an Eminem “rap” hardly seems significant on the fact of it; however, he has taken pains to lampoon political figures of significance in the past: specifically the Clintons.

No one person knows the intentions of Sarah Palin at this point, when the clock winds down in November of 2010, and additional, non-book tour forays begin in the states of Iowa and New Hampshire then speculation can begin in earnest. In the meantime, the media is sure to keep her in the spotlight, with good or ill intent, which will only strengthen her “base” and introduce her to those independents filled with buyers remorse that have begun to take a second look at Palin as President.

Winter of Political Interest Interrupted by Spring Scandal and General Disarray

Days are now growing longer and as the temperatures are set to rise in the North East, the heat of the primary season is dwindling down and the two major political parties have little to offer except bickering and boredom. Hillary Clinton continues to apologize (see Briebart), Obama continues to preach incessantly, and John McCain continues to put everyone within a 100 miles radius – asleep (*no need for links to any particular articles.)

Enter Elliot Spitzer, former New York Speaker and current (as of yesterday) Governor, caught with his hands in the proverbial cookie-jar. Apparently, Elliot laundered some money and played fast and loose with a call girl (politics as usual in this morally enlightened society), and resigned with much apology.

Meanwhile on CNN and Fox, Governor Mike Huckabee has been weighing in on the current presidential race and Spitzer’s problems. It is evident by his demeanor and his answers that the much better candidate has slipped through the hands of the American people. He’s straightforward when it comes to answering questions on the Democrat’s issues of having a woman and an African-American running for the first time. He notes that neither name tag should apply, and rightly so. His comments on Spitzer are focused on the man's family; and not one mean-spirited comment comes from him, rather, honest, focused analysis of all situations noted. He does add a plug for John McCain, but, that is in the best interest of the party, and Mike Huckabee is, after all, a Republican.

One thing is apparent, the media misses Mike Huckabee, the spotlight is now on their team self-destructing and to interview McCain may be more enticing than watching paint dry, but not by much.

The summer should bring more of the same (bickering, scandal, boredom, and the fall – chaos – regardless of who’s running on the DNC ticket, the chances of McCain winning the top job at this point, seem minimal at best (Vegas odds current lines

There is always 2012.

McCain Wins Wisconsin and Washington
Obama’s on a Winning Streak!
Timing in Life is Everything.

It was with shock and awe that I watched the results for the primary elections in Wisconsin and Washington State last evening. The speed in which all news outlets called the election for John McCain based on exit polls was simply amazing (the exit polls were based on interviews with approximately 800 voters)Fox News Exit Polls (CNN No Longer Available), it was barely 9:00 p.m. and the polls had been closed for less than one minute. What was more mind-boggling was the speed in which McCain took the stage to give his long-winded acceptance speech. It was 9:04 p.m. The raw numbers from precincts reporting in were not even showing at that point. How amazing it must be to be able to so clearly predict a win. (This is sarcasm). The general disillusionment with the system in general (on both sides of the aisle mind you), has grown from one of frustration the process, to one of utter disbelief!

Understanding that Mike Huckabee has always been an underdog, but actually does, even at this juncture have the ability to force this primary season to the fullest by garnering 51% of the vote and thereby, going all the way to the convention; it boggles the mind that the more Mike stays in, the more ridiculous the media, the RNC and McCain become.

On the other side, the constant downplaying of support, and displays of photo’s and video of Ms. Clinton that are less than say, charming, has become, from a feminist point of view, ludicrous.

This is the way I see it: The elite in Washington decided to hold their power one way or another and needed a lackey in order to do so. McCain was perfect, he didn’t stand a chance (in fact, less of a chance than Huckabee), and so given the carrot, he took the bait (and the money). These elite decided he would be their best chance at holding their own against Hillary Clinton.

On the other side, those that hold power in the DNC decided Hillary could be bested by some nasty old man, and so, they have rammed Obama down our throats.

Poll those of us who have voted long enough and this is what you find:
Clinton and Huckabee are the most acceptable candidates based on experience and policy.

Understanding that this is simply conjecture, but, other factors to consider:

With a loss of the white house, the RNC feels that it may be able to gain back its control of the congress.

The DNC feels that with a strong enough candidate they can consolidate their control of the congress.

Both parties help the media, who are helping them in turn, because left versus right has become a huge industry.

Enter the people:
Disenfranchised and Disillusioned.

With all eyes in the nation on Wisconsin today, it is not without a bit of amusement to find that local Wisconsin media is showing 4 candidates in this preliminary presidential race, rather than the 3 normally shown on major news websites. Perhaps this is why polls are often wrong, and/or exit polls by major networks and focus groups miss the mark. The Huckabee Factor is given little credence in national circles, yet, he manages to do just fine when it comes to local media

Cases in point: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Milwaukee's Channel 4

More Wisconsin Local Media found at Mondo Times

It must be noted that the local media is treating Ms. Clinton much less harshly than the national outlets.

This is true not only of Wisconsin, but the remaining states (one only needs to do the math, never mind a miracle. With the hype over all the major endorsements McCain has received over the past week or two, including the infamous "Read My Lips", George H. Bush (No More Taxes?), and Karl Rove (How nervous does that make the average Jean and Jo Republican?) it is no wonder that the conservative base might be taking a second look at someone who has proven to have no only staying power, fiscal responsibility (out of necessity, yet, stunning in light of the successes of his campaign), and a true conservative - can do the job, and has done the job, attitude!

Go Mike.

Hillary can expect and/or should expect much of the same treatment on a more local level as Obama's lack of experience becomes more glaringly apparent by the day. (Borrowing lines from a 1 year governor from the State of Massachusetts does not seem to be the brightest idea, no matter how solid the lines. It goes to original thought - does he or does he not have original thought? Or is Obama simply rhetoric without a clue.

Go Hillary.

Now, that is the match up that would make this a real contest. On the one hand, the only thing the media and the DNC can say about Huckabee that would be negative (by their view) is that he can preach. Huckabee, well acquainted with Hillary Clinton, would be more able to tolerate hits received than say: Bush Lite (John McCain).

Not for nothing, but the American people would be better served no matter the outcome. Scary Movie V: John McCain and Barrack Obama.

"Read My Lips, No New Taxes", The Bush-McCain Connection.

Given the fact that every imaginable high-ranking conservative has given their endorsement to John McCain, should not the party rank and file just fall in and throw all their grassroots might behind the "Chosen Candidate?" No. Last time anyone bothered to check, the rule book includes something inane about the people of the party actually voting for the candidate. Enter Mike Huckabee, who is as non-party elite as one can be, yet still holds the party near and dear to his heart. The problem with Mike Huckabee is that he is for the people first, not the party. This is the way he successfully governed in Arkansas (he has an impeccable record which is ignored in favor of the elite and the media crying "Christian" every chance they get, in an attempt to frighten off the general public, who are? - Christian's in some form or other. Those Evangelicals are hardly different from Catholics, Protestants (which, as a Catholic I thought they fell under that umbrella), or any one practicing any faith in this country. Once the fog lifted from the elite hue and cry, it was duly noted that the man actually had more experience than any other candidate, and a successful record of dealing with both sides of the aisle in order to accomplish a thing or two.

The problem is that the administration and elite have anointed McCain as one most likely to fall into line with party dogma; the media loves McCain as he suits their more liberal leanings and frankly, is the easiest target for the Democrats this November. What's not to love about this guy? No disrespect to his service, but his voting record is dismal at best, if you happen to be moderately conservative.

Is there a choice or a chance at this point? Decidedly yes. There is still hope, hope that Mike Huckabee will take the 51% or so, delegates in the remaining states, force it to the convention and garner enough votes in a brokered convention to give the party back to the people and make an honest and successful run at the white house in November.

Is it no wonder that the RNC has given state delegates from Michigan to McCain. They fear that Mike can win, and that if they don't stop him, the party is over.

(Not the Republican Party, but the inside the beltway, elite party).

Is it no wonder that the final debate has not taken place? Why would McCain enter to debate with Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul? Because should he do so, he would be shown to be the fraud he is.

Mike will survive (see You Tube video below).

McCain, George H. Bush, Obama - The Assumption (Arrogance) of Presumptive (Assumed)

The first weeks of February, 2008, allowed for some rather interesting speculation by John Q. Public. When it was recently announced that the former (or elder) President Bush was throwing his endorsement to McCain in this 08 election – party leaders were exuberant while John Q. Public reacted differently. Those on the “blue” side of the aisle were jubilant, as they understand that the public in general have no love for any Bush, and this endorsement was exactly what was needed to propel the Democrat’s nominee to the white house in 08. McCain, for his part, has been challenging Obama left and right, and vice versa, as the two presumptive (one has to love that word), nominees an early start to the “us vs. them” mentality of debate that has just sickened the country.


What seems to have been forgotten by the media is that there are still two other candidates (or three, my apologies to Ron Paul) in the race, and that there is a convention to be held, and that convention is held in July. Should anyone care to check a calendar, there is a difference of 5 months between February and June. The last of the primary states to weigh in, goes to the polls in June. The regular voter, not the administration or any party, is aware of the following:



There are still 5 candidates in the field.

Presumptive:

Main Entry: pre•sump•tive

Function: adjective

Date: 15th century

1 : based on probability or presumption 2 : giving grounds for reasonable opinion.

Note: presumption: assumed, and one knows what happens when one assumes anything.


So, for the record:

McCain: Senator from Arizona, consistently votes on social issues moderately, and has done so since he took the seat. One can assume this presumptive nominee is conservative, or one can check the record.
U.S. Senate Vote Record One can also access the exact voting record for the Senators campaigning this cycle through their individual pages on this web site.


Clinton: Senator from New York, and the only candidate with experience in the White House. The First Lady’s position, it should be noted, is not a fluff job, but involves actual management of staff. Using the link to the US Senate given above, one can find that Senator Clinton is possibly more moderate in votes than McCain.


Obama: Senator from Illinois. Voting record for Senator Obama is not particularly clear, given his short time in the position. (2006), however, one understands his position is to the left of both Clinton and McCain.


Mike Huckabee: Governor of Arkansas: 10 years as governor. Improved schools, improved conservation, cut taxes (unless federally mandated programs caught the state short budgeted, and then only when the electorate voted yeah or nay to raise taxes), etc. (etc., because, accomplishments to the positive would require a book)
Finding non-partisan records is almost impossible. Every single Republican special interest group has an article decrying his record as one of little note. That said, one can find unbiased reporting on the Governor, if one goes back 20 pages in Google: For a snapshot: Governing 2005
There are more such articles, as ten years is a long-time to govern, but more to the point.


Mike Huckabee and Hillary Clinton are the only two candidates with any management and or governing experience.


Both Senators McCain and Obama have experience legislating and they hire people to manage their staff.


Voting records show that both Clinton and Huckabee would be kind to the American people, not necessarily the party or the press.


In the interest of full disclosure, (although glaringly apparent), I am 100% behind Mike Huckabee’s efforts to bring the final vote for and by the people to the Republican convention. The systematic destruction of two political candidates by their own parties and the media has not gone unnoticed. No matter the outcome in this election, for the first time in a long time, people of opposing political viewpoints are reaching across the aisle and agreeing on one point. Neither the media nor the party has the right to choose the nominee.


Addendum: Club for Growth: Backers- Bush Administration