Harry Reid – Fundraising Ability versus the Reality of a Low Job Approval Rating – Money, in some instances, can’t buy a Senate Seat.

Harry Reid Stands to Lose Senate Seat - image LA Times Blog

Recent articles regarding Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid’s, ability to raise large sums of cash (and then spend it in a heartbeat), have appeared in several papers over the past week, of interest is one that appeared in the Washignton Post on January 29th. Although Reid had amassed approximately $2,000,000 for his campaign, he immediately spent it on advertising, perhaps in the hopes of improving his image with Nevadans. Reid’s currently polling between 8 and 10 points behind one of the republican challengers, Danny Tarkanian. Public Policy Polling, an allegedly left centered polling institute has Reid with an 8 point disadvantage at this point in the game. Public Policy Polling has correctly called races for Govenor (New Jersey and Virginia) and the U.S. Senate (Massachusetts).

Polling began back in August on this particular race, and the numbers have remained fairly consistent.

Comparing Harry Reid to Tom Daschle - Reids Numbers Much Lower - image broadcast blog

From an historical standpoint, the last majority leader of the Senate (and the first to lose his seat as an incumbent) was Tom Daschle, who’s poll numbers going into the end of the race, showed a smaller margin against his challenger Republican John Thune. Daschle apparrenlty had a higher job approval rating than Reid currently holds, however, his constant gaffes and his role of “attack dog” for the Kerry campaign, eventfully led to his demise. Reid, has had consistently low approval ratings: as late as January 10th, of this year Reids approval was at 33% and has remained at that approximate number since August.

Therefore, keeping in mind that historically, Daschle, the last Democrat Senate Majority Speaker who lost his seat had much better polling and approval rankings within his own state, more money, at this point is not going to save Harry Reid’s seat. All politics being local, it will be the Nevadans who determine Reid’s fate, and their main objective appears to be one of a fairly consistent desire to remove him from office. Another factor: Reid’s opposition is not yet determined (there are two Republican’s vying for the nomination who fare almost equally well against Reid in polls), once the opposition is set, the grassroots supporters as well as the GOP, will surely push that candidate’s war chest equal to or past Reid’s. Therefore, spending $2,000,000 here or $10,000,000 there will have the same effect as riding a stimulus backed pork-laden monorail to nowhere. Although too early to call any 2010 races, one can, based on the aforementioned data, be fairly certain that Reid will not be returning to the U.S. Senate.

Obama Labor Secretary Appointee Latest to face Taxing Questions – In One Week Polls Begin To Give GOP an Edge!

Hilda Solis , Obama’s choice for Labor Secretary, is the latest in a series of nominees who are facing questions regarding unpaid taxes. Apparently, Sam H. Sayyad, Solis’ husband, had tax liens placed on his business, which were paid off this past Wednesday. The liens, dating back to 1993, were placed on Mr. Sayyad’s business by the county of Los Angeles, and totaled approximately $11,000, a small amount in the greater scheme of things. Solis, is the fourth in a series of appointees who have unpaid taxes in their closets (or in Solis’ case, her husband’s closet). First came Timothy Geithner Treasury Secretary, who erroneously claimed his child’s summer camp expenditures on his taxes. Chucking that up to a simple mistake (and frankly, individuals who trust their accountants normally just sign on the dotted line, so one could give Geithner a pass on that slip-up. Enter Tom Daschle, legendary Speaker of the House who lost his seat and standing while pontificating on the evils of the Bush administration. Apparently, Daschle also had problems with his tax returns, which alone, were possibly not enough to keep him from an appointment, however the connection to lobbyist was culminating in a quick withdrawal of Daschle’s nomination as the Head of Health and Human Services. Daschle was followed by Nancy Killifer, nominee for Chief performance officer – once again, taxes were at issue, or the failure to pay.

There are several questions that come to mind, but first and foremost: “Who is vetting these positions?” After reviewing the lengthy and invasive employment review instituted by the current administration, it boggles the mind that those who are tagged for high level positions, are being passed through without thorough examination. One must also consider that the media has played a pivotal role in bringing these tax questions to light – not the administration. Who then, is responsible for keeping the proverbial egg off of President Obama’s face? It appears as if the President has been apologizing for appointees on a daily basis, when he is not pleading with Congress to act fast on the economic crisis (something which, without tax relief to those who are bearing the brunt of the Fannie/Freddie crisis (thank you Barney Frank), will be doomed to failure. Of course, keeping tabs on Congress at this point, may or may not prevent further revelations regarding tax evading government appointments or current members of Congress.

Which begs the question; Do these high-profile members of the party in power find taxes to be such a minor issue or non-issue, that non-payment isn’t considered abnormal? Most citizens fear the IRS (and their State equivalents) more than any other organization – and make it a point to avoid taxes, penalties, fees and the like by filing early and in concert with a double check by an accounting firm (incurring further costs for the pleasure of paying the Federal Government or the State). In conversations with “average” citizens (i.e. those who are not in the Congress, the Senate, the White House or possible appointee), it is noted that (paraphrasing) “If I didn’t pay taxes, I’d be in jail”. Good point. Now that the focus is on the Party in Charge, and the media is doing its due diligence (about time), the public has lost its initial zeal – President Obama’s job approval rating fell 15 points in one week, while support for the Stimulus Package has dropped to 37%, all of this resulting in a shift in popularity for the minority party as support for the GOP is up 3 points in a week on the Generic Congressional Ballot. In review, taxing Revelations regarding appointments, growing unrest over the “Stimulus Package” and a general drop in popularity in only one week’s time has given a boost to the GOP. With the addition of Michael Steele at the GOP helm, one can only imagine what those numbers may look like in three months should the present trend continue; at the very least, the GOP has been given enough material to wage competitive campaigns in 2010, at the most, 2010 may turn out to be much more interesting that originally anticipated.

The Democrat Convention – This Should Be Reality Television at Its Best

The fact that Hillary Clinton’s roll in the upcoming conventions has been greatly expanded to include a nomination has many a pundit nonplused! Some are calling the nomination of Clinton “symbolic”, an appeasement process to bring Clinton supporters to Obama’s side. Other’s are a bit unnerved over the Clinton’s involvement in the process. Dick Morris, in a recent Fox News appearance, sees it a bit differently. Morris, who is not a fan of the Clintons and has a less than stellar track record of predicating the outcome of any given race, made an interesting point nonetheless: Obama caved into Hillary Clinton. How? By allowing her far too much time at the convention, and an opportunity to upstage Obama. The question: "How’s that for leadership on the part of Obama?" Morris went on to ponder; if Obama cannot control Hillary Clinton, how can he be trusted to control critical situations? (Issues of import to the security of the nation.)

That’s a valid question. However, can one place the blame entirely on Obama? Yes and no - it depends on who is chosing his advisors. That is not entirely clear. The one term senator from Illinois whose mentor, John Kerry, Democrat Massachusetts, brought to national attention in 2004 at the DNC convention, has hired members from Kerry's old campaign team. Those advisors, although well-intentioned, may not have the best track records.

John Kerry campaign staff from his failed 2004 presidential bid that are working for Obama include:
Heather Higginbottom, Obama’s policy advisor, Stephanie Cutter, senior advisor to Obama and chief of staff for wife, Michelle and Jim Margolis leads the commercial production and daily message team. Additionally, Tom Daschle is a national co-chair of the Obama campaign.

The Obama camp is hoping that the “symbolic” nomination and multiple appearances by the Clinton’s during the convention will mollify the 18,000,000 Democrats who voted in the primary’s – bringing them over to the side of the “magnanimous Obama.” This remains to be seen. One can bet the house that the ratings for the Denver Convention will be through the roof – not necessarily because Obama will be on the stage, along with a yet to be announced running mate – it is the drama. This year’s DNC party will be the best of Realty TV. It remains to be seen how much control Obama and his staff will have over those delegates on the floor who are there for one reason and one reason only – to nominate Hillary Clinton as their party’s standard bearer. Comments on the original news release from the ABC Blog are an interesting read with a common theme – disarray. What types of message will this sending to the average voter?

To recap: Obama’s surrounded himself with campaign advisors who have major political failures under their belt and Hillary Clinton will have a huge percentage of air time at the Convention. Republicans, who were destined to lose every election this year, are looking more likely to retain the White House and those Daschle-like, DNC “Obamafiles” (Pelosi and Kerry come to mind), may end up on the outside looking in.

Kerry’s Negatives – A Plus for Challenger Jeff Beatty

The Boston Herald article this morning regarding John Kerry’s challenger, Jeff Beatty, references the uphill battle the campaign faces in the “bluest” state – a state that is known to heavily favor the Democrat party. They fail to note that the state is more heavily “independent’ and that both the Democrat as well as the Republican parties (the later always penned in the press as embattled) lost equal enrollment in the past 4 years. In addition, most of the Democrat incumbents go unchallenged; it may be the mindset, furthered by a state and national press that any other party would fare ill within the “Bluest State” – bunk!

Jeff Beatty is the first qualified candidate to face Kerry in a dozen years, and the fact that Kerry is facing opposition from within his own party for the first time in 24 years is telling. The Herald ponders the question whether Kennedy’s illness will play a factor in the Kerry race – should Kennedy leave the Senate, the state might need Kerry to help keep the federal support that Kennedy brings home. Why would the Herald and or the people of the State believe that Kerry would suddenly become more engaged than he has in the past? Beatty, an effective businessman, who has garnered significant grassroots support, is an effective campaigner who would take his experience to Washington in order to further the interest of the residents of the state. Kerry’s lackluster performance for the state, coupled with the anger of those in the Democrat party who are upset with his support of Obama over Clinton, will aid Beatty’s already well-established campaign.

It is interesting to note that every national article as well as articles from papers in the Bay state use the moniker “little known” when referring to Jeff Beatty, preferring instead to focus on Kerry, Ogonowski’s failure to make the ballot, the State’s and national Republican party’s preference for Ogonowski ad nausea and the “eventual” return of Kerry to the senate. Beatty’s treatment by the press is similar in scope to that received by a “little known” John Thune, who made history by unseating the first Senate Leader in 52 years – Tom Daschle.
More on Jeff Beatty from the Worcster Telegram

Jeff, a US Army veteran, will also participate in the Dedham Flag Day parade this Saturday. Interesting Fact: Flag Day is also Army Day and this year marks the 233rd anniversary of the founding of the American Army.

Massachusetts - the Opportunity For Positive Change

Jeff Beatty,
Candidate for U.S. Senate Seat Currently Held by John Kerry (D)

Jeff Beatty

Massachusetts, dubbed the “Bluest State”, has long been the bastion of Progressive political think, with the rare exception; the Democrat party has held control of the majority of state seats as well as U.S. congressional and Senate seats. When one party holds a super majority, it leaves little room for political discourse and solutions that will benefit all peoples, rather it is exactly what our founding fathers feared (refer to: Federalist Papers), control by one party that leads to the destruction of the Constitution and changes to the Republic of the United States. Massachusetts, of all places, has become a model to the rest of the nation – of exactly those issues that so worried Hamilton and Jay.

In light of recent events, those who hold more conservative political points of view are in a unique position. There exists the opportunity to promote and elect conservative candidates to one or possibly both U.S. Senate seats long held by Democrats. With the question raised regarding the eventual replacement of Ted Kennedy (D MA) by the media it is being suggested that the Kennedy Dynasty remain intact. (Yahoo News Service) To those of us who have lived under the Kennedy reign for all of their lives, that scenario is unthinkable. A political dynasty is not in keeping with the principles of the Republic. It is one thing for a father and then a son to hold the same office within a span of years, but should a single family to hold sway over a state government with national influence for over 50 continuous years it smacks of monarchy.

Therefore, It is the hope of this resident that John Kerry will go the way of Progressive Democrat, Tom Daschle and that when Senator Kennedy’s seat is vacated, it will not remain in the “hands of yet another Kennedy”. Massachusetts can send a clear message of change to the rest of the nation. Yes we can – provide positive, conservative, middle-class, non-elitist, fiscally conservative, and yes moral, governing.

Jeff Beatty is running for the U.S. Senate seat long-held by John Kerry. Jeff Beatty is retired Army, serving as an officer with the elite Delta Force, he was wounded in the first Blackhawk shot down, for which he earned a Purple Heart. He also earned a Combat Infantry Badge while helping to rescue hundreds of Americans. Jeff is also a former FBI agent, advising the National Hostage Rescue Team and a former CIA counter-terrorism officer with service in Europe and the Middle East. His background puts him in a unique position to understand the very real and serious external threats to our country that can affect Americans both at home and abroad. Jeff is now a businessman - running a successful security consulting firm. James McDonnell, campaign Chief of Staff for Jeff Beatty notes: “He knows what it is like to meet a payroll, support a company, and be part of the middle class. In short, he’s one of us and has the relevant experience that is required of a U.S. Senator.”

James took the time to answer some of my questions on how Jeff Beatty stands on the issues. (Those positions and background provided by James McDonnell directly are noted in quotations.)

Jeff Beatty is pro-life. “He was given up for adoption at four days of age and knows how precious life can be.”

“Jeff believes that a marriage should be between a man and a woman.”

He takes a strong stand on illegal immigration. No amnesty, current laws should be enforced, and the borders secured.

Taxation: he is in favor of repealing the death tax and wants to eliminate the requirement for businesses to pay tax on projected earrings.

Earmarks: Jeff holds that the earmark process has been corrupted over time. He feels that to eliminate them entirely would limit a Senator’s discretion in funding certain requirements.

National Defense, Jeff’s background speaks for itself, yet, he is not blind to the mismanagement of the Iraq war, and rather “he understands the need to win the war.”

To learn more about Jeff Beatty and to offer support for an anti-elite, conservative candidate opposing John Kerry, visit Jeff Beatty.com

I am of the opinion that in his service to his country, his experience in the private sector and his stand on important values, and immigration issues, makes Jeff an excellent candidate fill the seat currently held by John Kerry.