ABC WAPO Poll – Romney Leads Obama – The New-Improved Mitt Romney - Changes Tactics Takes 4 Point Lead over Palin - Now Wears Jeans, Rolls Up Sleeves!

Mitt Romney? Indeed! Image rssbroadcast.com

In the latest GOP 2012 poll conducted by the very non-partisan group at ABC and the Washington Post, indicates that Mitt Romney is tied with Barack Obama, before noting that Romney is actually beating Obama by two points. In addition, the poll places Romney in first place with 21% out of a field of six, including Sarah Palin, who places second with 17% and has yet to announce whether or not she will join the fray. The Post reiterates the mantra – that no voter is thrilled with the GOP field – and although Obama is skewered by the 1002 randomly sampled adults in a telephone survey, somehow, those randomly sampled see the current President as a strong leader.

Does the public really need these types of polls? Perhaps, as entertainment – however, anyone who is paying rent or a mortgage, utilities, and has managed to maintain a job (in the private sector mind you) is most likely too busy or depressed to give these types of polls much credence. It is no longer a fact that if one organization prints/broadcasts/blogs a “fact”, it will eventually sound true enough to the targeted viewer. It's hard to admit when the "honeymoon" (or "revolution") is over.

The problem that some fail to see (though not all) is that overall, Obama has lost his mojo – he’s no longer “cool” with College students (See Atlantic Wire.com article.) Of course, one can easily find out just how cool the next crop of 2012 voters feel Obama might be by asking; the results, across socio-economic, ethnic, racial and gender lines basically result in the same data – he’s last year’s news. Not that one should rely on the youth vote, perhaps, but Gallup’s last poll on the Presidents approval on a state by state basis showed he was above 50% in 10 states based on 2010 approval rankings. One has to wait until the 2011 rankings come out sometime next April to see if there has been any improvement – perhaps he’ll pick up a state or two, but that scenario at this point, appears unlikely. (This screams: unelectable)

Reality: although the GOP field of contenders for the Office of the President may appear to the respondents to the Washington Post/ABC News poll, and similar polls taken by media outlets and Universities with political science polling programs as "lackluster" – when push comes to shove, one of those individuals will become the next President. This is beyond 1980 apathy and distrust of a public figure, this has morphed into an “anyone but” situation, with no time for recovery.

The “Leader of the Pack”, one term former Massachusetts Governor, Olympic Saving, Health Care Plan inventing (for Massachusetts only), Fee, not Taxes, “Perfect Hair and the Guy in High School one just could not stand”, Mitt Romney, appears to have risen to these new heights due to a remarkable makeover: Romney was spotted by the Boston Globe, of all tomes, sporting Jeans!! – the Tie was gone! This is breaking news! In a recent guest spot on WRCN Worcester’s Wesley and Weston Review (airs from 6 to 7 am Saturdays), this humble blogger suggested that Mitt become a bit more …..like the rest of us, let his hair get a bit ruffled, roll up his sleeves and well, be a little less perfect. Apparently, it works.

The reason that Romney, Massachusetts Budget Busting, Individual Liberty removing, Massachusetts Health Care Plan and Club for Growth Issues aside (They just are not “feeling it”) , is better received, is his “less perfect” persona. Jeans work, he now needs a tee-shirt – just saying.

To those Massachusetts residents who are horrified at the thought of exporting yet another disaster nationwide, there is still hope that Sarah Palin will still run and offer, if not merely entertainment, an opportunity to vote for someone who is less “Mitty”. Massachusetts, not exactly known for embracing conservatives, regardless of race, gender, or if one of them suddenly walked on water, are actually eyeing Palin. It is the media’s best kept secret (along with the Mass GOP and other Romney supporters in the Bay State), and here-in lays the kicker, young, old, male, female, Palin's best attribute to a Massachusetts Independent or Democrat, or Republican (there are a few who prefer Mitt in a suit), is that she appears to be able to take on anyone or anything – plus, she’s cool, like Donald Trump cool. These are Howard Dean leaning liberals, who are convinced Palin can beat Obama, and they are not going into therapy, they are hoping she runs. Somehow, they are under the impression that she fixed some problems in Alaska, and well, she didn’t care if someone was a Republican or a Democrat, or Big Oil, she threw them all out, and then gave everyone in the State of Alaska a piece of the action. (Movie reference to Stephen K Bannon’s – The Undefeated - (*like here on Facebook) a look at Sarah Palin and what she actually can do (as opposed to what has been repeated “reported”), scheduled to run in key GOP early primary states, and coming soon to a theater new you .

The biggest point to take away from the film (based on reviews) is that Palin, not unlike Ronald Reagan, was eviscerated by the media and the GOP establishment – and we all know how well Reagan did, especially since he took the Blue State of Massachusetts – twice. (That is the only comparison, from what reviews are available, between the Palin and the aforementioned Gipper).

Satire aside, (what fun is there in that?), Romney, Palin, a mind-changing Mike Huckabee, and Donald Trump to boot, in a debate, would induce skyrocketing ratings - This is not to diminish other candidates with less visibility, however, in a perfect political world, it would be mind-blowing entertainment to watch Romney in Jean’s and Tee-Shirt (think West Side Story (banned in Amherst Massachusetts as “racist”), Sarah Palin in whatever she wants to wear, Mike Huckabee, sanctimoniously preaching about twelve ways to fix the economy, and Donald Trump telling it like he sees it! Any bets on who would win that debate? Smart money in on the Barracuda.
What of the Media?

Perhaps NBC’s nightly news anchors would not have to do 30 second promo’s begging those watching to “TiVo” the news, if they somehow cannot find time to watch it! (Seriously that’s actually running.)

WCRN 830 AM Western Mass Radio Guestspot 5 21 11

This morning, I was privileged to be a guest on the Saturday Morning, Weston & Wesley Review, on 830 AM, WCRN, in Worcester MA. This early morning show is a fantastic edition to the Conservative Talk line-up in Massachusetts - Saturday 6am to 7 am - live streaming available. For video archives and Tom Wesley's weekly essay visit http://tomwesley.com

Richard Neal (D-MA2) and Sander Levin (D-MI12) Fight for Top Dem Slot on Ways and Means Committee – Neal “"Globalization is not about to retreat"

Richard Neal (D-MA2) Battles for Rank Position on Ways and Means image urbancompass blog

On the one hand Congressman Richard Neal was recommended for the top Democrat Slot as “Ranking Member” of the House Ways and Means Committee by a group of Democrat House Leaders, according to Business Week. The Democrat Steering Committee for the House recommended Neal by a vote of 1 over Sander Levin, who is the current Chair, and was appointed by Nancy Pelosi to fill the slot previously held by disgraced member Charles Rangel (D-NY). Sander immediately protested, noting that one member, Maxine Waters, who supports Levin, was missing and has requested a rematch according to Politico. With Waters in the mix, the Committee would be tied before either Neal or Levin would be chosen by the full Democrat Caucus.

The Chair of the Committee going into the New Congress is Dave Camp (R-MI4) . Camp, played a pivotal role drafting the legislation for welfare reform under President Bill Clinton, and not unlike Richard Neal, keeps a fairly low national profile. Camp has been serving his MI district since 1991. Camp will take up the gavel on the 5th of January 2011 when the new House is in session.

Neal or Levin would still hold influential posts on the Committee, which overseas tax codes, Social Security and Welfare; of the two men, both hold progressive views, although Neal tends to break with his fellow Democrats on rare occasions. Neal, a Catholic, voted against federal funding for abortion in the new Health Care Reform Legislation, and is a staunch support of Ireland. He has been credited with helping to broker a peace between the outlaw party Sein Fein (Irish Republican Army) and the British Government. For decades Irish Catholics fought for parity with British and Irish Protestants in Ireland, with Sein Fein using terrorist tactics in order to make their point.

Levin, according Business Week, has cast his support behind labor unions; while Neal spends his time working with Washington based tax lawyers. Both men are “Progressive Democrats”. From Politico comes this exchange that highlights the very real similarities and differences between the two would-be “ranking members”

"I have been an effective chair this year, and I believe I am the best person to meet the challenges our caucus faces in the 112th Congress. I have demonstrated principled, active leadership and the ability to press the administration to hold firm to our basic principles and take on Republicans who want to turn back the clock on our accomplishments," Levin wrote.
Neal said it's time for Democrats to look to the future and stop "recycling" arguments.
"Globalization is not about to retreat," Neal said.

It appears that Dave Camp is more than capable of working with either Levin or Neal, and has the temerity to stick to his guns. In the capacity of “Ranking Member”, Neal Ranks 58 in the Democrat Party, while Levin ranks 34th. Levin’s higher party rank includes a member’s success in moving legislation forward and ability to influence members. Based on these statistics from 2008 on Congress.org, one would think Levin would have the juice to best Neal, if he forces the tie with Maxine Waters vote, then the full caucus may reject Neal’s campaign for the role.

Neal, who had to face a tough reelection campaign from a newcomer Tom Wesley (R), won reelection with the help of community organizers getting out the Democrat vote in the last 13 hours of the election. The final tally was not as excepted, with Wesley taking 42.7 percent of the vote, a clear indication that Neal’s run in 2012 may not turn out as expected by both the beltway pundits and Neal. Levin, fared much better than Neal in his district, with the opposition garnering only 24% of the total vote. Levin, may have more “staying power” in the eyes of his colleagues than Neal, although Neal may appear to be more of a moderate in sheep’s clothing; deemed more capable of brokering deals with the current Republican majority.

All this backroom dealing, caucusing, and posturing on both sides of the aisle, will result in the election to positions within the Congress of those who will be watched more closely by both the media, but especially the voters. Going into the 2012 general election, with all house seats once again up for reelection, a majority of the Democrat Senate seats up for reelection and of course, the President up for reelection; should the current political climate continue, both Levin and Neal will either be out of jobs, and/or holding on to “high ranking” minor roles in the Congress until at least 2014.

Of note: Both Levin and Neal voted “yea” on the 11th hour tax bill that would have extended tax cuts to families making less than $250,000 and increase taxes on business (Full roll call vote at house.gov here), which failed in the Senate. The President, meanwhile, had been in negotiations with Republicans on a bi-partisan measure, which, the actions of both Neal and Levin indicate that they were willing to vote with the Speaker, (Pelosi current) than the President. The MA2 District, although having lost the majority of its manufacturing jobs over the past decades due to high corporate state tax rate, and although the vote was most likely made in an attempt ot pacify the Progressives in Neal and Levin’s districts, it tends to make those independent voters leery of both men who would not join in the clear effort by both President Obama and Republicans to move the nation forward. Finally, in addition, the MA2 and MA1 districts may be melded with another district due to the Commonwealth's loss of population. This would pit Neal and Olver against Democrat and former state Sen. Andrea F. Nuciforo Jr., a Pittsfield lawyer in a 2012 contest.

Neal(D-MA2) Wrangles for Rangel’s Chair of Ways & Means – Rangel Faces Stern Reprimand for Ethics Violations - Down Not Out.

Pelosi with Rangel and Neal - Decisions, Decisions - image Washington Post

Charles Rangel, the New York 15th District’s Newly Reelected Congressional Representative will most likely face a body of his peers publicly expressing (within the Halls of Congress), their displeasure over Congressman Rangel’s behavior. The Boston Globe reporting on Rangel’s “punishment”, suggests that Congress may “vote to censure Rangel for fundraising and financial misdeeds that violated congressional rules. Other possibilities are less serious. They include a reprimand, a fine or a report deploring his conduct.” There is no suggestion that the crimes committed by Rangel would end in his expulsion from Congress as outlined in the rules governing House Ethics for the 11th Congress (http://ethics.house.gov). In other words, Rangel is facing a slap on the wrist for breaking 11 of 13 Ethics rules.

Rangel, who chaired the House Ways and Means Committee (which writes our tax policy), stepped down when gently pushed by then Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, and replaced by senior member Sander Levin of Michigan. Levin, for all appearances was keeping the seat warm for Rangel, however, as time went by, Congressional egos came into play and other members began to eye the Top Job.

Enter Richard Neal - the Massachusetts 2nd District Congressional Representative, who faced a rather tough reelection in 2010 (having gone unchallenged for decades), defended his seat against newcomer Tom Wesley (Republican), and spent millions to hold onto the district seat. Neal who has been vying for the Top Spot on the Committee for years, still managed to support other Democrat members of Congress during the 2010 midterms to a paltry tune of of $70,000 (Politico). Apparently, when one wants a Chair on a Committee one literally “buys” the votes of a peer by donating to his or her campaign. Unfortunately, due the challenge Neal faced in his district (Wesley received 40 plus% of the vote); he had little opportunity to spread the wealth – even though he has a considerable war chest.

Although Neal won the election, the Chair of the Committee will go to a Republican as that party has the majority in the House. Therefore, Neal is seeking to become the Highest Ranking Democrat on the committee – a vantage point from which, others have had a great impact on U.S. policy including one Barney Frank, (MA4). Frank, who while a ranking Committee member for the Democrats managed to make decisions affecting Mortgage giants Freddie and Fannie.

Neal, not deterred, has announced he will challenge Rangel’s replacement, Sander Levin, for the top spot. An article in Business Weekconfirmed his intentions yesterday. Neal, who’s backing comes from big business, is a frequent guest of the non-partisan Tax Counsel Policy Institute whose board members include representatives from major insurers and pharmaceutical companies.

Neal may be in the best jockeying position for the seat in question, due to his straight party line votes with Nancy Pelosi in the 111th Congress, including support of the Health Care Reform Act. Neal even went a step further to please Pelosi and also supported including illegal immigrants in entitlement programs. Therefore, Neal may be the new House Minority Leaders’ (Nancy Pelosi) choice to move into what would have been Rangel’s spot on the Committee, a step down for Rangel, a step up for Neal somewhat.

However, all that lobbying on Neal’s part may come to naught, as Rangel is, in all likelihood, not facing an expulsion from Congress, rather a “stiff reprimand” via censure. Another member of the Massachusetts Democrat Congressional Congress also faced a similar “fate” and managed to parlay that misfortune into the Chair of the House Finance Committee – one Barney Frank. Granted in Frank’s case, there was some time that passed between his “trial by peers”, (which resulted in a Congressional “shame on you”, and then a pat on the back) eventually leading (when Democrats regained control of the House) to the top spot. Therefore, unless Rangel himself relinquishes the power he perceives he has, and maintains Nancy's blessing with by a mere reprimanded, should the Democrats gain the House in 2014 or 2016 (historically appropriate) he may find himself in the Top Job again. This of course, hinges on all three - Rangel, Neal and Levin – still holding seats by that time (retirement by either the electors or a personal decision).

In any regard, the final decision will rest with the Minority Leader, Nancy Pelosi – whose charges against Rangel in the first place were based on politics at that time - now that Progressives believe that they will regain the House in 2012, she may decide to bump Neal for Rangel. Of course, Pelosi, Neal, Frank, Rangel and Levin are all up for reelection in 2012, and Neal will again face opposition, as Republican’s and Independents are now in the process of vying for position to take on Neal after this particular election confirmed he was vulnerable. (An election return which, one can be sure, the new Minority Whip is well aware.

Richard Neal (MA2), Get’s Rave Reviews from MA DNC Vice Chair – “He Still Cares...about the Little People.” Richard Neal Up For Re-Election in 2012

From the Springfield Republican’s article “U.S. Rep. Richard Neal improves election record to 18-0 with 2nd District win over Tom Wesley”comes this little gem:

Debra Kozikowski, vice chairman of the state Democratic party, said they were not surprised that Neal withstood the challenge of Wesley, a business executive who positioned himself to ride the anti-incumbent wave.
Of the two candidates, Neal had a stronger claim as a populist, Kozikowski contended. “He still cares about the little things, about the little people,” she said.

Neal, who had not faced a challenge in 16 of those 18 elections has little to crow about, neither does Ms. Kozikowksi, considering that 41% of those “little people” she speaks of voted for Neal’s opponent, Tom Wesley (If those are the "little people" she is referring to.) Wesley, a veteran and businessman who had never run for office and had little cash on hand garned 41% of the vote. Wesley fell short in the Western part of the district, with three cities showing high returns of votes: Chicopee, Springfield and Northampton. Additionally, Progressive Community Organizers, driving low-income and “immigrant” voters to the polls, produced votes for Neal that were not there for Coakley in the January 19th election.

In reviewing vote returns from these two of the three cities mentioned in the Mass Live article as having given Neal the edge From: The Boston Globe website, Boston.com:
Deval Patrick won Chicopee with 6,850 votes to Charlie Baker (R) 6,270 votes. Tim Cahill took 2,643 votes, and Jill Stein 364.
Springfield returns: 8,019 votes for Baker, 3,058 votes for Cahill and 20,221 for Patrick, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein taking 563 votes.

In town by town results for the MA2 district
Chicopee: 10,670 Neal, 5,375 for Wesley, Springfield: 24,423 Neal, 6,972 for Wesley
In Chicopee, 16,127 voted for the Governor’s Office, with 16,045 voting in the Congressional Race, in Springfield: 31,861 voted in the Governor’s race, with 31,395 voting in the Congressional race. In precincts such as Agawam: Baker won over Patrick: 4975 to 3614, with 1703 voting for the two other candidates (10,292). However, on the Congressional Side, Agawam went for Neal: 6192 to Wesley’s 4402 (10,594). This pattern is prevalent with all districts and recording of votes.

These anomalies in extra votes for Neal may be due to the Globe’s accounting, once the final results are posted on the MA Secretary of State’s website, results may differ slightly.

The explanation as to how the votes varied, can be twofold, either votes were manufactured in the District in Neal’s favor (as in get out there and vote for Neal, while neglecting to get out the Vote for Deval Patrick), or overall, and more likely, the problem in the past and continued in this last election: name recognition. Those who may have voted for Wesley, voted for Neal as Wesley was for the most part unknown (compared to say Scott Brown). Wesley did run an astounding ground game; however, Neal was running advertising in both the east and west of the districts.

Additionally, Neal targeted voter groups: Holding meet and greets with free food for seniors at local eateries (The Annual Senior Appreciation Dinner at the Hu Ke Lau, held a week before the election is highlighted on Neal’s Facebook page. (Unfortunately, prior to Neal’s Facebook, it is difficult to find a 2009 Annual Senior Appreciation Dinner). Regardless, Neal had to work hard for this campaign, and should not, as suggested by the State Party Chair, who expressed that Republicans would lose control of the House 2012, rest easily on his “laurels”.

Should Neal exclusively caucus with the Democrats, and follow the next Minority Whip as he did Ms. Pelosi as Speaker, during the next year, he fill find that those emails sent and unanswered (see comments under Masslive article link posted above), will indeed set the stage for the next candidate to oppose Congressman Neal. (Who, incidentally no longer holds the power in Congress that he did on the morning of Nov. 2nd). Neal should make returns to the district between votes and hold town hall meeting where he can listen to those “little people” for some feedback. As to the next candidate, that man or woman has paid attention to what took place in this race, (and other races statewide) and will, perhaps having more cash on hand, use it in conjunction with effective advertising in both sides of the district (matching Neal) allowing those “little people” to get to know him or her.

Should Neal change his 18 term habits and suddenly get close to those aforementioned, and begin to pay attention, then he would win the hearts and minds of his district. As of now, his job is to listen to the 41% of the voters who decided his job performances was lacking. If not, then 2012 might find him in another expensive and prolonged fight for term #19.


Comparing voter statistics from the two previous elections: in 2010 Democrats in Hampden County accounted for 39.66% of the electorate with Republicans at 13.8% and Independents at 47.67%, in Worcester County, Democrats 29.86%, Republicans at 12.86 and Independents at 56.62% The 2008 Statistics show the movement of the parties by country Hampden County: 39.81% Democrat, 13.42% Republican and 46.02 Independent, Worcester County: 30.65 Democrat, 13.02 Republican and 55.54 Unenrolled (Independent) between the two elections offered slight variances.