Showing posts with label Obama Misery Index. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Obama Misery Index. Show all posts

Monday, April 18, 2011

U.S. Government - Raising the Debt Ceiling – Consequences Raising Taxes – Politicos as Usual not Fooling the Public.


Economy no place to play politics as usual - image milktheclock.com


The current administration is bent on raising the U.S. debt ceiling according to an article in Politico: Tim Geithner, Treasury Secretary “and administration’s point man”, spoke on several weekend talks shows noting: he was certain that lawmakers would avoid disaster by voting to raise the $14.3 trillion ceiling.
“Congress is going to have to raise the debt limit. They understand that. That’s absolutely essential to preserve the credit-worthiness of the United States of America.”


Further, several Republican lawmakers noted that they would be willing to raise the debt ceiling if there was a balanced budget amendment attached (Politico), however, the likelihood of the administration reining in spending, given the history of the current administrations eagerness to spend, is unlikely. The fact of the matter is that without deep cuts in spending, which would include entitlement programs, there appears no way to balance the budget. The President, already on the campaign trail for reelection in 2012, had made remarks regarding the House Republicans’ attempts to cut the Health Care Reform Act, by saying they would not touch “his” health care plan in taped remarks and further sarcastically denounced Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), as “America's accountant and trying to be responsible”.

Without a willingness to cut or redesign programs that are money eaters, the only other option is to raise taxes across the board – which was made clear by the Senate Republicans who, according to the Washington Post: have been willing to discuss a budget deal that would include raising more money through taxes, along with making deep spending cuts, to help reduce the deficit.

The question remains, what programs would these lawmakers, from both sides of the aisle, cut, in order to satisfy constituents or their “base” going into the 2012 elections? One would find it difficult to imagine that the largest entitlement programs: Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid would be revised under any circumstances, and pork is, for some members of Congress, untouchable. Until and unless somebody in the government is willing to take a political hit to save the solvency of the nation, the downward spiral will continue – and as long as the partisan finger pointing by the President and the Democrats in both house, as well as certain Republicans continues, (while in campaign mode), with the debt ceiling raised, and no control over spending continues, the value of the dollar declines, and inflation will increase – to Carter’s levels.

According to reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, if one does not factor in food and fuel, the inflation rate is actually quite low, however, when food and fuel are introduced, the rate of inflation (which is considered volatile and subject to change), the rate is approximately (according to the BED) 2%. Add this to the current unemployment rate of 8.8% , and the Obama Misery Index is currently at 11% - or three points behind former President Carter’s 13.8% high.(One who shops for groceries now, may find that inflation rate to be on the low side.)

The rise in fuel prices at the pump ($4.00) reduces households disposable income, add to that the rise in food prices (which are directly impacted by the rise in fuel), do not appear to be going down anytime soon. When consumers have less to spend, due to food and fuel costs, those industries that rely on expendable income are forced to close doors – causing additional layoffs and a resin the unemployment rate. The U.S. is now on an unsustainable course, unless someone steps in and takes the political gloves off, and put s the American Public first.

We do have solutions, unfortunately, they are not politically correct solutions, such as drilling offshore, and removing the ban on the Alaskan oil fields; even a hint of ending the ban on drilling and opening up our lands to drill, would send the prices of oil downward, as evidenced by the actions of the Congress in 2008, when a band of house Republicans stayed on the floor to force then House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, back into session in order to vote on offshore drilling. The price of gas at that point had risen dramatically; it worked, with the results that without a single drill touching the earth, the commodities traders backed off, and oil re-adjusted. In addition, President George Bush had authorized a rebate to the American public, a stimulus so to speak, in order to “jump start” the economy, after the rise in oil prices. Unfortunately, instead of spending that money on hard goods (electronics, etc.), most used the extra check to pay off credit cards which had been used to buy high priced fuel!. There appears, no matter the party in charge, a tendency to move too little too late.

Unless the government is willing to reign in wasteful spending: a Report released by the GAO, found that over one hundred billion to upwards to 200 billion in waste could be cut from the federal spending spree. The report, available < a href="http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11318sp.pdf">here in PDF, addresses areas of waste and duplication that are, mind boggling. Perhaps someone should send a copy to Obama, Geithner, the Senate Republicans and anyone who’s currently attempting to save the economy, as a starting point in reductions. Of course, these are smart people, so they must have access to the report, preferring to politicize, rather than come up with any real solutions.


Trump and Huckabee, the two GOP Poll Leaders can they stop the madness? - image Politico

As the overburdened U.S. taxpayer (which is only half the populace, and mainly middle class, takes one hit after another going forward to into the 2012 elections, those in power should pay careful attention to the man behind the hair, who, although characterized as a “clown”, and “not serious” has been polling gangbusters in the last two weeks on the GOP side. Donald Trump, one might dismiss out of hand, however, in a non-scientific poll of 18 to 24 year olds, conducted “on the street”, by this blog (sample 100 in Massachusetts), all likely to vote in this election: were asked the following questions
1. What do you think of the President?
He’s got to go (expletives and strong language removed.)
2.Who would you vote for?
“You’re fired”! – Trump he’s “cool”
3.What does Trump stand for politically?
I don’t’ know and I don’t care.
4.Then why would you vote for him?
“Obama is old news, Trump is cool”.

Granted this is a multi-cultural, multi-racial, multi-religious group of high school seniors and colleges students who see no future under the current administration.
5. How likely are they to vote: Very.

Democrats or Republicans – neither, regardless of their Professors urgings, they are more to the point ready to vote for the Next American Idol.
This is how the economy impacts all voters. On the Press and its run of Donald Trump and the “Birther” issue – the response – “who cares”.

Granted not scientific, therefore, would love to see a real poll conducted across the nation, not just in blue state Massachusetts, not by some casual blogger, but by a real pollster with, as they say “street creds”.

It is, to sum it up, The Economy Stupid” and with the waste, the political machinations and the finger pointing, any candidate, Trump, Huckabee, Palin, who gets in front of the people and is blunt about prospects and how to fix them (a la Trump) will stand a better than even chance of taking on the 21st century’s Jimmy Carter.

Monday, June 08, 2009

U.S. Unemployment Rate Hits 25 year high - Obama Misery Index over 12% with No End in Sight

The U.S. Unemployment rate rose in May to 9.4%, and the administration is acknowledging that the economy is getting worse:


Austan Goolsbee, a member of President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisors:

"The economy clearly has gotten substantially worse from the initial predictions that were being made, not just by the White House, but by all of the private sector," said Austan Goolsbee.

Economists point out that the current jobless rate is already higher than the hypothetical rate that was used to calculate the health of banks and other financial institutions in so-called "stress tests" earlier this year. And, the upward unemployment trajectory is expected to continue in coming months, even if the overall economy begins to recover.


Additionally, the Stimulus is not having the intended effect (apparently, no one in the administration studied the economic policies of Jimmy Carter, and the nightmare that resulted when he instituted a stimulus, auto bailout, and big government programs that eventually led to a new economic term: “misery index” (combination of rate of inflation and rate of unemployment). Investors are now concerned about a rise in in interest rates and inflation, with good cause – the rate of inflation has risen, although slightly, to 3% in April.

That said, the rate of inflation is based in part, on the consumer price index, which has been kept steady due to the fall in oil prices last summer. As the consumer prices on oil and staples such as food (prices now increasing) increase, the rate of inflation will be driven upward.
The other factors used to forecast the fate of inflation include the GDP and the Prime Interest Rate.

The GDP decreased in the fourth quarter to -5.84% from a “real DGP of -6.1% in the 4th quarter of 09. The GDP is the Gross Domestic Output, based on industry – specifically the auto industry. Under the Bush Administration the GDP grew - tax cuts.
Therefore, adding the current rate of inflation (approximately 3%) to the current unemployment rate (9.4%) the Obama/Carter misery index is only 12.4% - as the price of oil rises, and the GDP declines (auto industry plant closings not on the radar yet), the prime will have to be adjusted (there go those interest rates), and by end of 2009, the economy will be in worse shape than it is today, perhaps surpassing the misery index under Jimmy Carter’s watch.

The only avenue available to put the skids on this entire fiasco would be for the current administration and simpatico congress to reign in spending – and that is not likely. At the peril of the economy, the President is pushing for Universal Health Care at a time, when the nation cannot afford to spend another nickel. Ironically, Obama is citing economics as the main reason that this bill should be rushed through the Congress and the Senate, however, rest assured it will include mandates that will further happen business development and growth. Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA), has visions of forcing employers to pick up the tab on health care reform. However well intentioned this utopian socialist ideal may be; the end result will be fewer businesses able to afford to pay employees salaries, let alone extend benefits, and the only “job creation” in the health insurance industry will be at the Federal Level.

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Update: Comparison Obama-Carter – Misery Index - Fed Warns of Rising Inflation

In an analysis of historical data comparing economic policies and like situations between the Carter and Obama Administration (See below) a pattern had developed that suggested a return to the Carter Misery Index (a combination of high unemployment and inflation). At the time, (April 3, 2009) the missing factor appeared to be inflation, which was relatively stable, however, this week the fed has suggested that general rate of inflation will indeed rise and suggested caution. The statement, made by Charles Plosser, President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve branch follows:

“The economy may be at greater risk of inflation than the conventional wisdom indicates,” Plosser said in a speech yesterday in New York. “While inflation expectations appear to remain anchored, we should not become sanguine about our credibility. It can be easily lost.”

As the price of gasoline has risen up to 23% in the past year in some urban areas, and staples such as food are predicted to rise by a substantial 9% by year end, a general inflation trend, added to an 25 year high unemployment rate sets the stage for an historically high misery index.

Article from this blog: April 4, 2009

The jobless rate in the country has increasesd to 8.5 percent with 633,000 additional jobs lost in March. This rate is just .5 percent below the Carter unemployment rate of 9% in 1979.

Add inflation and the Misery Index (combination of unemployment and inflation) may rise above Carter's 20% sooner than anticipated.

Inflation rose dramatically after Carter approved a 4 billion dollar job creation (stimulus) package (email for full article). (Adjusted for inflation, that job stimulus package would cost approximately$14,448,797,250.86.) Interest rates on new home loans rose to an average of 14% by 1979, causing a "housing slump". Bloated budgets, stimulus, auto bailouts (yes it has happenned before), and bank bailouts, all contributed to the "misery".

Should the current administration fail to reign in government spending, and roll-back the stimulus (as suggested by certain Republican's), one thing is certain: History will repeat itself.

Friday, April 03, 2009

Jobless Rate rises to 8.5% - the Obama/Carter Misery Index


Obama - Carter photo: 4.p.blog

The jobless rate in the country has increasesd to 8.5 percent with 633,000 additional jobs lost in March. This rate is just .5 percent below the Carter unemployment rate of 9% in 1979.

Add inflation and the Misery Index (combination of unemployment and inflation) may rise above Carter's 20% sooner than anticipated.

Inflation rose dramatically after Carter approved a 4 billion dollar job creation (stimulus) package (email for full article). (Adjusted for inflation, that job stimulus package would cost approximately$14,448,797,250.86.) Interest rates on new home loans rose to an average of 14% by 1979, causing a "housing slump". Bloated budgets, stimulus, auto bailouts (yes it has happenned before), and bank bailouts, all contributed to the "misery".

Should the current administration fail to reign in government spending, and roll-back the stimulus (as suggested by certain Republican's), one thing is certain: History will repeat itself.

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