Obama Visits Connecticut To Support Blumenthal and Raise Much-Needed Cash – Give’s Gift To GOP Senate Candidate Linda McMahon

Obama made a rare2010 visit to the Nutmeg state yesterday – his mission – to raise much needed cash for the DNC and support Senate Democrat candidate Richard Blumenthal. It must feel like Christmas at the McMahon household, as Obama’s visits usually herald the “kiss of death” to any candidate he approaches.

Blumenthal must be fairly desperate to take his chances with a presidential visit, even in the “blue” state of Connecticut, either that or he’s oblivious to what has happened to Democrat candidates who receive an Obama visit this close to an election. Blumenthal, is already a flawed candidate, having lied about his military record, having an issue with taking some PAC money for his campaign after saying he would not, and an August 26th report out of Connecticut that involve Blumenthal’s relationship with law firms and tobacco settlements that is dubbed as a “national scandal” by the Post. Therefore, a “boost from Obama” may just push the Blumenthal campaign over the ledge.

Connecticut has been noted, much like its neighbor immediately north (Massachusetts), as “Safe Democrat” for decades, due to several factors, one of which has been a lack of contested races, and or opposition candidates who were neither focused or funded – that was then, this is 2010. Linda McMahon has been outspending Blumenthal to the tune of her sister candidates in CA: Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitmen. Although money in 2010 isn’t obviously everything, it has, according to Bloomberg, significantly narrowed the poll gap in the McMahon – Blumenthal contest. One can’t go anywhere in CT without someone knowing who Linda McMahon is – she has made sure of that, and the papers, in their attempt to defend the “popular attorney generalmay fall short of their goal to give Blumenthal a boost. Especially in light of their announcement of a Presidential visit.

About that visit: The Bellingham Herald’s article says it all:

“President Barack Obama swooped almost literally into Republican Linda McMahon's backyard Thursday to raise money for Democrats and the wrestling maven's opponent at a big-money fundraiser in Connecticut's richest town.
Obama joined state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal at a fundraiser in Stamford and then at a $30,000-per-person dinner at the 20-acre estate of affordable housing developer Rich Richman. Richman's palatial home is not only in the same neighborhood as McMahon, but it is also within the same gated Conyers Farm development in Greenwich's exclusive "back country" neighborhood.”

The article goes on to describe Obama as having raised $1 million for the DNC and Blumenthal’s “300 hard core supporters” hoping to raise at least $400,000.

Keywords used by the locals: “Obama swoops” and “Linda McMahon’s backyard” says it all. Linda McMahon has insured she is known in every household in CT., not only by throwing scads of cash at the campaign, but my doing retail politics, door to doors and meet and greets. While Obama’s swooping into any given state to give a boost to a campaign, usually does not pan out as intended (MA, NJ, VA, etc., etc.). In addition, what is missed entirely is the fact that the $30,000 per plate, star studded, mansion set campaign stop for Blumenthal, was actually a visit to the CT elite in order to get cash for the DNC as it battles mid-term races in almost every district in the nation. As these Obama visits across the nation continue, they are based in areas where American’s wealthy class (Democrats) are able to still give substantial funds, rather than rely on the Democrat base, who are mostly out of work, or on the public doll and rethinking party affiliation.

Therein lays the difference in 2010 - $30,000 a plate dinners to raise funds for the DNC versus individual contributions from people who, in today’s economy, don’t have money to spare, giving to Republican and Tea Party candidates nationwide: the GOP may not have as much cash in Millions to spend on individual races, (talking in millions of dollars here) but what it lacks in cash it makes up for in voter enthusiasm. Plus, it has attracted the likes of aforementioned candidates McMahon, Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman who are in a position to fund their own campaigns.

As September turns to October and the real heat turns up in the last two to three weeks of contests across the country, the handwriting will be on the wall, regardless of the media drumbeat about the “Party of No”. Perhaps because of visits by Obama, the lack of jobs, and the palpable angst of the people against the majority of Democrats either holding office or attempting to hold office, will, in all likelihood, turn into a route. Current polls, although kind to the GOP, regardless of whether the candidate is “electable” according to Karl Rove, will only tell the tale in the last two weeks of October. With so many races to cover, and so many Congressional races being decided by a handful of votes this fall, the winners will be those who have a positive message for the nation, and frankly, who are not entrenched incumbent Democrats with voting records that confirm their dedication to party over the electorate.

2010 Control of the Senate - Review Shows GOP within Striking Distance of Taking Both Houses

Politicois suggesting that the fate of the Democrats control of the Senate rests with three Democrats: Feingold (D-WI), Boxer(D-CA) and Murray (D-WA). The premise of the Politico article is that it was thought highly unlikely that the aforementioned would be in any real “danger” of losing a seat held since 1992, the year Bill Clinton was elected. Incidentally, that election preceded the 1994 Republican landslide which saw the GOP take control of both houses.

At that time, the pollsters reviewing the Generic Ballot (a measurement based on a hypothetical choice between the two major political parties), especially Gallup, gave the Republicans a a 5 point lead over their Democrat counterparts. In 2006, the Democrats led by 7 points and today, the GOP leads by an historical 10 points, which is a high point for the party in the history of Gallup polling.

Out of those three chosen by Politico as being on the proverbial chopping block, it is realistic that one, perhaps two will be retired come November: Boxer (D-CA) and Feingold (D-WI).
Statistically, the lead for the GOP may come from other states, currently considered “Leans Democrat”. If one reviews the polls at Real Clear Politics one finds a map that currently shows: Democrats: 44 Safe or not up for reelection versus Republican: 34 safe or not up for reelection, with those states deemed either safe Democrat or safe Republican by the pollsters, pushing the totals to 48 Democrat and 44 Republicans.

It is, according to Real Clear Politics, the Tossups (8) that will determine which party eventually has 51 seats and Control of the Senate. The Toss-Ups are Boxer (D-CA), Bennet (D-CO), Florida (Open-R), Illinois (Open-D), Nevada (Reid-D), Ohio (Open-R), Murray (D-WA), and Fiengold (D-WI). However, it is still early in the game, being August and of those seats at this point, one can realistically see the following play out: Boxer, Bennet, Ohio, and Florida will be leans Republican within the month as will Illinois, Nevada will remain a Toss Up, as will Feingold and Murray.

Open seats are those where no incumbent of either party is running in an election year and Toss-ups are called by a statistical tie in the polls. Real Clear Politics uses a combination of all polls taken in any given race to determine an average. Pollsters include the Daily Kos (leans left) as well as Rasmussen (said to lean right). This blogs preferred pollster is the left leaning Public Policy Polling simply because it leans left, however, has had more accurate outcomes when it comes down to the final stages of a given race. As with all polls, there is plenty of room for error and bias, however, when margins go over 5 points, one can feel fairly safe betting on the outcome based on this pollster.

Polls, therefore, are the political junkie’s version of Reality TV.

There is a poll at Real Clear Politics that currently leans Democrat, which should be moving into the “Toss-up” or Leans Republican column shortly and that is the CT Race between McMahon(R) and Blumenthal (D). Blumenthal had a 34 point lead over Republican Linda McMahon pre-primary, which one post primary poll shows the lead reduced to 7 points, the last poll was taken August 11th.

Therefore, it may not be Patty Murray that tips the balance for the GOP or Russ Feingold for that matter, but an Open CT seat which suddenly turns to the right in early September. At present, states shown as Leans Democrat, have yet to hold primaries (due Sept. 14th), including New York, where Gillibrand holds a 19 to 23 point lead over the three Republican Contenders, comparing New York to Connecticut, where the political landscape is similar, one should watch that race once the primary closes, and the margins begin to tighten.

Based on the above, the GOP stands a better than average chance of picking off the 51 seats needed to take control of the Senate. The story will continue to unfold and tighter polling data should become available 3 weeks out (or 1st Week of October) which will be truly indicative of which party will triumph in 2010. Until then, speculation is base on the polls and unfortunately past state voting trends. With this election, that should not be factored, given the angst against incumbents that has crossed party lines. (See AK, Murkowski)

A Side Note on personal perspectives.
As there are primaries in Massachusetts on the 14th of September, and having gone door to door for a Congressional Candidate, the objective being to introduce the candidate to both Republicans and Independents in an approx. 8 block area that was predominately Democrat. In the process of knocking on doors, the Democrats visited were most enthusiastic – took the literature, and asked in-depth questions about the Candidate. What is telling in this small cross section is that the candidate is a Republican. It may be one small section in one medium sized city, in a blue state, where the “straw that broke the camel’s back” has many Democrats, either committed to or considering voting for a Republican for the first (second in some cases see: Scott Brown), a Republican. As Massachusetts is considered “safe democrat” on all seats, with the exception of the 10th (toss-up), it will be interesting to see if enough interest is generated amongst pollsters after the primary on the 14th to even begin polling – those polls will be indicative of what will happen to those Senate Seats in play. It would go to the general “mood” of the electorate by Party. Also, if one has never gone door to door, it is an eye opening experience as to the number of people who are actually paying attention to what is going on in the political theater.

Connecticut Senate Election 2010 & 2012 – Profile – Republican Linda McMahon

Linda McMahon resigns as WWE chief executive to run for Connecticut Senate against Dodd image and article NY Daily News

Updated: Linda McMahon's website: www.lindaforsenate2012.com - "It's about jobs"

One development in the 2010 mid-term elections that cannot be ignored is the number of women running under the GOP banner, be it Congress or the Senate, women have stepped up and stepped out, prepared to take the usual heat (because they are women) and Linda McMahon, running for the CT. Senate Seat left vacant by the retiring (Get-Out-of Dodge) Dodd, is no exception.

McMahon, who’s issues page here, gives a snapshot of solid conservative beliefs mixed with moderation. McMahon is opposed to Card Check, deficit spending, Government Bailouts as well as the administration’s Health Care Reform bill (which will add to rising deficits). She is more moderate on her stance on abortion, clearly stating she is pro-choice, to a point, and where she draws the line is at partial birth abortion, and federal monies spent on abortion unless a woman’s life is endangered.

Linda McMahon has business sense, although in some media reports, the business is given a raised-eyebrow or two. She rose to the top of World Wresting Entertainment, as the CEO. The fact that Ms. McMahon was able to be so successful in a male dominated industry, gives on the notion that she is more than capable to stand on her own and take a firm stand on issues that affect the Nutmeg State, should she be elected to the Senate this November.

The opponent, one scandal clad Richard Blumenthal, has been caught fabricating several times, most recently, according to the AP: about his not taking PAC monies – the article gives McMahon a platform and she comes out swinging about honesty.

Prior to Ms. McMahon winning the primary, Blumenthal was polling in the 30 percent plus range against any Republican candidate (when he first announced in January) the latest Rasmussen poll, however, tells a different story post primary - Blumenthal’s lead has shrunk considerably, he now holds a 7 point (margin of error plus or minus 4.5%) over McMahon, which is clearly indicative of a chance in perspective regarding Mr. Blumenthal as well as McMahon.

McMahon in a recent television interview spoke about retail politics, and how much she enjoyed getting to know the individuals and what concerns they may have. It is that type of political think, and the no-nonsense approach she has to issues, that will endear McMahon to CT Voters. Considering the trends to date on Real Clear Politics (a combination of polls) one can see that the more CT voters get to know her, the more her poll numbers rise. Therefore, the seat that was thought to be “safe democrat” should, by the end of September, be “Safe Republican”.

To learn more about Linda McMahon, visit www.linda2010.com