2012 Poll Updates: Cain Takes Double Digit Lead in SC, Ties Romney to Best Obama in AP/GFK Poll, Ties Romney In CNN/ORl – Media: No Frontrunner Yet!

Fortunes subject to change as GOP vetting process continues: pictured: Cain and Gingrich, current frontrunner and the men who may surprise pundits - image Arab American Institute


The Headline from the Boston Globe: “AP-GfK Poll: Public unsettled on Obama challenger, the lead in from the AP article: “Americans have yet to find a Republican they'd clearly prefer over President Barack Obama, although half say the president does not deserve re-election.”(Globe), suggests that the likely Republican voters is not quite satisfied with the current field of candidates, however, one might point out to the AP (and the Globe, and other AP subscribers) that the process of the campaign leading up to the primary (including debates and polls) is a vetting process by the people. In fact, one could propose that in this election, there will be more serious vetting of candid dates for this field, and one can take it to the bank, this will not be an election based on “popularity” rather the person that is deemed most capable to lead the nation out of economic chaos. This theme crosses party lines, and every other line one might consider.

The polls referred to in this blog article were taken prior to the CNN debate on Monday the 18th, however, from this perspective little should change in the overall numbers, perhaps a point or two either way between Romney and Cain, with Perry losing perhaps a point or more, and Gingrich and Bachmann with pickups, Ron Paul should remain about the same, the later three receiving the least amount of media attention – or general attention for that matter, outside of core political junkies.

The process of vetting a candidate in this election (the AP-GFK Poll, not unlike all other polls, includes a sample of from the entire electorate), shows a noticeable increase over prior years – hiring the right candidate for the job might take a bit more time. Voters are undecided, and carefully weighing which candidate is best to lead, not necessarily which candidate might best “beat” the President, who is, in every poll, no matter how one dices it or frames the question, underwater. In field tests by this blogger, most respondents (unscientific, respondents cross party and left of center state lines (i.e. New York, Massachusetts, Texas, Arkansas, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut) - the general consensus, any one of the current field of eight would deserve the chance to gain the GOP nomination, and further, preferable to the current Chief Executive. In fact, although individuals are interested in different candidates, the process of vetting from week to week, debate to debate, is by the core values, overall debate performances and fact checks of statements made by candidates (self-researched in news archives), rather than how much cash is on hand.

Therefore, although the primary season for the GOP has been pushed up in some cases, and is only six weeks away, given the current crop of candidates, one might see multiple candidates post Iowa and New Hampshire continuing to vie for the nomination, which drives the Press and the Beltway around the bend. As of now, the most popular candid date from both this bloggers sample and the national polling samples appears to be Herman Cain, the reasoning for the most part, and contrary to the AP article, is because he has experience in business, over an extended period of time, and understands how to hire the right people, apparently a plus. Additionally, the fact that Cain was not born with a proverbial silver spoon, and has little to no (that anyone can seem to find) personal baggage, helps this candidate.

Romney is the choice of the political class, and the more moderate Republican who is under the impression that anyone but Mitt Romney (or a moderate) is unelectable nationwide (Evidence to the contrary: self-made man, Ronald Reagan, who was hardly presented as a Moderate). In addition, former 2008 Presidential Candidate, Mike Huckabee proved that no cash on hand beats millions, essentially the candidate that forced a hefty, war chested, Romney, out of the 2008 race by February. The critical state it appeared in 2008 – South Carolina.

The latest polling out of South Carolina via The Savannah Morning News refers to an Augusta Chronicle poll, taken October 16th: shows Cain with 32%, Romney next with 16.4% and Perry at 12.4%, Gingrich follows with 7.8% (note: 14% undecided) Although polls are obviously subject to change by the week, as candidates are further vetted by the people who intend to vote, the more likely support will solidify around three of the top candidates reducing the number of undecideds'. A double digit lead in South Carolina, which is the “gateway to the south” in any election (and the path to the nomination), is one which, if maintained, puts the handwriting on the wall.

Of the 1000 individual over the age of 18, taken by AP/GFK, and to which the Globe refers, appeared top heavy in the voting bloc that is least motivated (18-29 years), comprising 19% of the total, 21% considered themselves “liberal”, with 31% moderate and the balance conservative, political affiliation: 44% Democrat, 36% Republican and 5% Independent, with 14% unsure of what party/ideology they subscribe. Given that the majority of those polled are Democrat, by nearly 10 points, makes the matchups between the President and each of the top three candidates, all the more stunning: Obama bests Romney by 1, Cain by 1, and Perry by 1 – in a poll where the margin of error is plus or minute 4 points, this reads that regardless of how these candidates are individually ranked by Republican voters, any one is in a position to best the President.

Finally a CNN/ORC poll conducted in the same period (October 17), including the same sample
amount approximately as the AP poll (the Augusta Poll sample was smaller, at 475, which is consistent for geographically smaller samples in polling.), gives the following tidbits, Republicans are far more enthusiastic in going into the polls compared to Democrats (includes leaners). Romney, Cain and Perry remained the top three, with Romney ahead of Cain in the CNN poll by one, or statistically tied), Perry in third with 13% , followed by Ron Paul with 8%. As to candidate support, this also remains fluid, with a majority taking the option of possibly changing their minds, depending upon, several factors (outlined in the poll data available here at http://12.cdn.turner.com/cann/2011/images/10/17/oct17.poll.pdf.

Therefore, what this tells us: Cain is already head in the key Southern State of SC; he has traveled, to date, through the south, which, again, will, to this point of view, be the pivotal geographic test for all candidates. Can will be campaigning in both New Hampshire and Iowa in the coming weeks. Romney has millions, along with Perry, which does not give either candidate a commanding lead, Gingrich would gain the most in the next weeks, form both of those candidates. Across the board, looking at the total numbers, Democrats are interested in who the Republican Nominee is, in fact, in many instances, obviously making a choice of candidate, rather than supporting the incumbent. Finally, the most salient fact that we learn from this process, including polls, is that the people of the USA, are taking the time to carefully assess each of those eight on that stage, based on nothing more than their ability to do the job. It is safe to say, in this election: the GOP nominee may not be the most handsome, may not be the most educated, (i.e. Ivy League Eastern snobbery), the Nominee may not even have held public office before, the nominee may be, at this moment, polling in single digits, as front runners are put under extreme scrutiny, which, will raise and lower their stock, particularly during the next two months, with the final debates before the Iowa Caucus and NH Primaries, most likely playing a pivotal role in the process.

The next debates will be held:

November 9th, 2011 8pm EST on CNBC
Location: Oakland University in Rochester, MI
Sponsor: CNBC and the Michigan Republican Party

December 10th, 2011 8pm EST on ABC
Location: Des Moines, IA
Sponsor: ABC News and Republican Party of Iowa

Information courtesy of the ever brilliant staff at http://Hillbuzz.org

2012 GOP Update: Michelle Bachmann Leads Mitt Romney in Latest Iowa Poll, Pawlenty Gains – The “Undefeated” – Waiting for Palin.

2012 - The Year of the Women? - image MSNBC


A poll of 500 likely Iowa caucus voters commissioned by theIowa Republicans, finds Michelle Bachman (R-MN) with a 4 point lead over former Massachusetts Govenor Mitt Romney in the latest survey. Bachmann leads Romney in Favorability by 10 points, with an 11% Unfavorabilty. Romney is at 21% with a 66% favorable, with Tim Pawlenty at 9% (a plus) with a 60% favorability. The margin of error is plus or minus 4%; therefore, this might be considered a statistical tie. Go to: the Iowa Republican to read the entire article.

From this perspective, it is still early in the political game, even in early caucus and primary states such as New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina, (the three leading up to Super Tuesday). Should, for example, Sarah Palin, enter the race, those numbers may change dramatically, and for the first time in history, one might find two women leading the polls in one of the two largest national party general election process. Additionally, Governor Rick Perry, who has yet to announce, would change the dynamics, most likely affecting those who are currently in the field. Neither of the aforementioned are considered “dark horses” rather, they are most likely viewed as able to compete an already competitive field. One might suggest that the latest either one of these candidates would announce would be early October, 2011, however, that announcement must come with a pre-set grassroots organization and the wherewithal to run a blitzkrieg campaign in at least one of the three key states.

Palin is being aided by filmmaker Stephen K Bannon, with a documentary that debunks the myths regarding the lack of just above everything “Palin”. CBS News’, Jan Crawford, after viewing the documentary opined

"The Undefeated" goes a long way towards debunking that tired narrative. It shows an unbroken line in her thinking over the past two decades. The things she's saying on her bus tour about freedom, free markets, fiscal responsibility and the proper role of government are the same things she's been saying ever since she entered into politics.
It got me to thinking about the grossly unfair and inaccurate story line that developed over the years about Justice Clarence Thomas - another favorite target of the Left. The rap on Thomas was that he was unqualified for the Supreme Court and incapable of serious thought - so as a Justice, he blindly followed conservative superstar Antonin Scalia.

Perhaps most intriguing I the article in Huffington Post (yes, the Huffington Post), by Amy Siskind, entitled “The Undefeated: The Movie I Wish Hillary Had Made” - the premise, is obvious, getting to know the real person, and debunking media myths, however, for the film to be as well received by both the MSN, Conservative and more Left of Center outlets, is telling. Additionally, literature accompanying the film proclaims “The Road To the White House 2012”, although unannounced, the message to Palin is clear, support for a candidacy is there, and it is only a question of time before the former Alaskan Governor and 2008 GOP Vice Presidential nominee throw her hat into the ring.

Two Women: Let the attacks continue/begin.

The film on Palin will begin playing in 10 theaters in some key demographic states this weekend July 13th, for a full schedule visit: victory film group.com. The film debut took place in – Iowa. The most ridiculous article to date: (one can now, with certainly, claim Palin Derangement Syndrome) comes from Gawker Magazine online ripping through every aspect of Palin, and an article released in Newsweek, entitled: “Palin plots her next move” is more foreboding than complimentary.

Bachmann, who is definitely in the limelight, is catching flak in both print, as well as from her competition: Immediately following Bachmann’s stellar performance in the CNN Debate, a Senior Pawlenty aid made a sexist remark (see article here at the leftist “Time Magazine”.), for which he later apologized. The point being when all else fails, attack a woman because she might be attractive. Of course, that was coming from Pawlenty’s aid, however, this weekend, on Meet the Press, Pawlenty went roaring after Bachmann’s “lack of experience” in matters of governing. He’s walking a fine line - there is a general consensus among conservative as well as independent voters, that Governors have more experience than say a member of congress or the Senate and would be more capable of governing the nation (Evidence for that case: Barack Obama, one term Jr. Senator from Illinois).

That is Governor Pawlenty’s opinion; however, when Palin enters the fray, he and his aides might have to come up with a few “bombshell” remarks in order to keep the candidate in the news. Both Bachmann and Palin have a take no prisoner approach to negatives, and are far from “shrinking violets when faced with criticism either from the left or from within their own party. Points for these two women. One has to wait and see how these remarks made by Governor Pawlenty and staff, impact his overall poll rankings in the early caucus states, negatives, either in spoken, written or commercial form do not play well with Conservatives, Independents and or Moderate Democrats. The most damaging commercial in recent political context pitting female/male candidates to date, in this point of view, came from the campaigns of one Martha Coakley, who ran against Scott Brown for the open Senate Seat in the Bay State: Coakley ad here on You Tube - the result: Senator Scott Brown.

Therefore, Romney, Pawlenty, Cain, and the rest of the “boys”, including not yet announced Rick Perry, should understand that attacks on one record are just fine, don’t cross the line – otherwise, you’ll become just like your Democrat counterparts – (see Hillary Clinton).

Personal note: As a Conservative Feminist, who would, of course, want to see the first woman elected to the highest office be a qualified female, one with the wherewithal to stand up to both the press, the political left and the political right, one that would transcend criticism in the long-run, and defend themselves during their terms in office. One must reference the recently released Rasmussen poll on women and the Presidency noting that within ten years, 73% of respondents, across the political spectrum felt a woman was most likely to be President. Of note: the only option as far as time-frame offered to respondents was 10 years. One has to wonder, with the economy, the state of the nation in general, how that poll would have looked had Rasmussen suggested 2012? One has to understand that if one thought 10 years from now a woman would be elected, that they might also take that stance in less than two years (or 2012).

With that said, out of the current field, Michelle Bachmann offers her congressional experience, however, she also stands up for what she believes is right, an endearing quality to those of us sick of the “establishment”. That said, should Palin enter the race, then it stands that the former Governor from Alaska would have the full support of this writer. This is not necessarily because Governor Palin is a woman, (although that is a bonus), rather, in looking at her experience, from an historical context (and note: having attended no preview of the “undefeated”, rather having done due diligence prior to her acceptance of the 2008 VP nomination) – one finds: A woman who is in it for the people, does not differentiate between fraud or abuse by party, gets the job done, whatever that job may be, and sticks to the Constitution (in this case State of Alaska) and the courts, when it comes to her decisions. In all cases, she sticks up for herself. One has to look closely at those elite who cannot comprehend anyone who had to claw their way through their degree programs, perhaps going to several schools to achieve a goal. It is what the average American has to do, loans included, to accomplish their goals. It is this East Coat or West Coast mentality that someone who went to Harvard or Yale are ultimately superior is a fallacy. GPA’s for Presidents Bush, John Kerry, and other recent Presidents and candidates (with the exception of one Barack Obama) are available, and show less than stellar performances when it comes to “smarts”. Therefore, give us common sense and an above average or even average GPA at the finish line, relevant governing experience, the ability to cross the aisle in good times and bad, and that individual has this vote - Male or female, right now it does appear to be a female. Bonus: someone who has no direct connection to the Beltway and makes the media crazy.