Abortion Not Likely A factor In Catholic Vote in 2010, Despite Church Inclusion in Health Care Reform Debate

A recent article in Politico suggested that the Democrat Party may lose the “Catholic Vote” in 2010 should abortion be included in the Health Care Reform plan that has gone to the Senate – the argument: that Catholic Bishops will play a factor in how the rank and file votes in upcoming elections should the Bill include abortion has never been tested.

The Catholic Identity versus the Political Identity of Catholics has, in the past, resulted in a run to the Party and away from Church Teachings. The 2008 elections were a testament to that fact, despite the increased efforts from Rome to educate Catholics on politics and abortion. Additionally, In the 11th hour of the 2008 Presidential Campaign, the Church began to make mention of abortion and the vote as it related to those Catholics who held political office and their pro-abortion stance. High profile Democrats: John Kerry and Nancy Pelosi openly espouse their “Catholic Identity" in an effort to sway their constituents, while being endorsed by abortion activists as being leaders of the pro-abortion movement in the United States (2008 List here). Several Catholic Priests, who openly opposed pro-abortion candidates, were quickly rebuked by both the press and the Church. As far as Barak Obama, the candidate, was concerned, he made no pretense of the fact that he was clearly pro-abortion; his support for late-term abortions was, for the most part, public knowledge.

The Catholic “excuse” at the time (2008) was – “war”. In an effort to assuage their “Catholic Identity”, Obama, the candidate of “peace”, was chosen over McCain, the candidate of “war”. The real motivator however, had little to do with religion – it was, and it remains – the economy. Fear that the Republican Party, seen as been “in control of the economy for eight years, despite the fact that Congress was, for two of those years, a Democrat majority, pushed the Catholic Vote towards the Democrat who was going to fix the economy, and a host of other issues – abortion was simply not a factor. In the month before the campaign ended polls supported an Obama win, based solely on the economy.

Although the Catholic Bishops, appeared to have some say in the Stupak Amendment, it remains doubtful that a social issue will be the driving force against Health Care Reform. What will drive this particular vote is economics. The rank and file Catholic is well aware of the cost of the bill and the current state of the economy. It is a question of what will happen when it comes time to pay for additional government programs that will be the driving factor – this time, abortion will be the “excuse.”

Although a poll by Gallop in May of this year, suggests that more American’s consider themselves pro-life, since that pollster began asking the question in 1995, recent polls suggest the economy and health care reform are top on the minds of most Americans. In fact a recent survey by Rasmussen, shows 85% of the respondents chose the economy as the top issue.

Therefore, the probablity exists that those that are attempting to drive the conversation away from the economic factors of Health Care Reform, though “fear of Rome and the Catholic Church in general”, are missing the mark. The evangelical Christians, who decided to sit out the election in 2008, as there were no acceptable Republican candidates. As early as 2007, James Dobson and a host of evangelical leaders decided they would not support any Republican nominee (Video here. He went further, in 2008, Dobson specifically stated that he would not support McCain (see James Dobson on not voting for McCain in 2008 here). The loss of the evangelical vote propelled Obama into office, and maintained the Democrat majority in the House and Senate. Therefore, moving the conversation away from the economy to the abortion issue, is doing nothing more than announcing to those Catholics who do follow the Church’s teachings, that they will be joining the ranks of those millions of evangelical social issue voters who will come roaring back to the polls in 2010 and 2010.

Evangelical’s Move to Support John McCain

The AP has reported that Conservative Church leaders met this week to consider backing McCain as well as petitioning him to consider Mike Huckabee for the V.P. slot Booth Newspapers Michigan.

Barrack Obama has been seeking to convince Christian Church leaders that he is acceptable as “Liberal Christian”, going so far as to pick up George W. Bush’s Faith Based Initiatives as part of his platform this past week. However, given the recent Supreme Court Rulings, (Gun Rights and Guantanamo Bay - both decisions hinging on the whims of one Justice who could weigh in either to the right or to the left) the realization that the all-important Judiciary is certainly in play has given Conservatives who were sitting on the sidelines reason to give McCain more than a second glance.

Add to that the fact that Mike Huckabee has been actively campaigning for John McCain and has met with Evangelical leaders over the past few months to make a case for McCain’s presidency (RightWingWatch). The judiciary and the danger of Islamic Fundamentalism are key issues that will give these leaders the ability to overlook certain aspects of John McCain’s moderate record and get behind the Republican nominee. It is also natural that they would encourage McCain to add Mike Huckabee to the ticket – Huckabee resonates with the rank and file, he can aid McCain in carrying the south and the Midwest, and adds both personality as well as governing experience to the ticket. It is not so much his religious background (although that is certainly a part of their decision), but more so the strategy of this particular ticket that is generating interest from the Churches.

Although Beltway pundits and special interest groups prefer Mitt Romney, (and have from the beginning), as he bring cash to the campaign - Romney will not pull in the south or Midwest which is critical. Some pundits cite Romney’s Mormon background as a hindrance, but in essence, it was his elite personality that did not win hearts in the Heartland. It is an historical fact that campaigns are won when the strategy of a united ticket (two individuals representing various regions of the country, one of which is the south).

With the focus on Obama’s view of Christianity as a liberal based religion, his support of Partial Birth Abortion and his newfound hard-line on Gay Marriage (he is now in favor of Civil Unions), being played daily in the press, the rank and file of the Christian Churches are paying attention. The congregations (Baptist, Evangelical, Catholic), are bringing their voices and concerns to the leaders and the message is clear. Conservatives cannot afford to take the chance that the Court may be lost and that Christian’s, as a group, do not trust Barrack Obama. The old adage, “The lesser of two evils” comes to mind.